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Showing posts with label Cold War. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cold War. Show all posts

Friday, February 23, 2024

What does Blinken's 'table and menu theory' signify?

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken takes part in a panel discussion at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, southern Germany on February 17, 2024. Photo: VCG

Recently, during his participation in the Munich Security Conference (MSC), US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a statement that offers significant room for interpretation and is worthy of in-depth analysis. When responding to a moderator's question concerning that "the US-China tensions are leading to greater fragmentation," he used an American slang phrase, stating that "if you're not at the table in the international system, you're going to be on the menu." Translated into Chinese, the meaning is akin to "if you're not the knife and the chopping board, you'll be the fish and meat on the board." As the chief diplomat of a superpower, Blinken's use of this phrase reveals a worldview characterized by a harsh and chilling perspective of a world where the strong prey on the weak.

This is not the first time Blinken has made such remarks. On January 24, 2022, during a forum, Blinken used this same phrase to elucidate the China-US relationship, emphasizing that in competition with China, they should make sure that the US is "at the table," but not on the menu. Going back further, this phrase appeared in a 1993 article in an American Middle East affairs journal, describing the situation in Lebanon at that time.

Subsequently, individuals of different backgrounds used it in various contexts. However, Washington politicians gradually found that it "vividly and accurately" encapsulates the US worldview and foreign strategy, making it resonate with their beliefs. Hence, Blinken reiterated the remarks.

The phrase "if you're not at the table, you'll probably be on the menu" is extremely straightforward, even blunt, representing a stark zero-sum game mentality. In plain language, if you have the strength, you devour others at the table; if you lack strength, you become the prey on the menu. It adheres completely to a jungle law where power and status, not ethical or legal norms, dictate actions.

Over 200 years ago, the massacre and land usurpation against the indigenous peoples living in North America were manifestations of this mind-set. World War I instigated by old European empires and, to some extent, the Cold War can also be seen as examples. However, with the progress of political civilization and the development of economic globalization, this mind-set and approach are increasingly unpopular.

In fact, even within the US, the use of this slang phrase is filled with criticism and reflection, because it implies that when privileges that can be enjoyed at the table appear, it is usually at the expense of sacrificing others. The corresponding Chinese phrase "if you're not at the table, you'll probably be on the menu" is even more filled with the humiliation of being at the mercy of others. Strictly speaking, Blinken, as the chief diplomat of the US and a professional diplomat, speaking such words can be considered a slip of the tongue and a loss of composure. However, his repeated blunt remarks in international public forums also indicate the unapologetic hegemonic thinking of current American diplomacy.

Washington's current official diplomatic rhetoric emphasizes the so-called "rules-based international order," but it is all used as tools to demand, restrain, and accuse others, or to cover up US own hegemonic intentions. Blinken's "table and menu" remarks indicate that the underlying logic that Washington truly believes in and follows in its foreign strategy has not fundamentally changed. He may also be intended to create a sensationalistic effect of intimidation. In the US Congress, there is a mobilization of public opinion on the strategy of containment against China, while internationally, the US is coercing other countries to take sides between it and China, or else they will end up on the menu.

Former US president Woodrow Wilson once said "the small states of the world have a right to enjoy the same respect for their sovereignty and for their territorial integrity that great and powerful nations expect and insist upon." The principle of sovereign equality of states established by the Westphalian system has long been one of the fundamental principles of international relations and international law. All countries, especially small ones, have a higher awareness and insistence on sovereign equality. However, centuries later, the chief diplomat of the US seems more convinced of power politics, and unashamedly uses the privilege of "sitting at the table with a Western knife and fork to prey on others" to pressure and entice other countries. It must be said that this is also the tragedy of American diplomacy.

Today's world is not a private restaurant monopolized and controlled by individual superpowers, but a broad stage where all countries should share prosperity, bear responsibilities, and compete fairly. The vast majority of countries in the international community share the common desire for peace over war, justice over hegemony, and cooperation over confrontation. No country is destined to become the fish on the menu. Going against this historical trend is bound to be criticized and opposed by the international community.

 
 
 
 

Friday, September 15, 2023

Blinken sounds a rallying cry for a ‘new cold war’ that US cannot win

 ;How Joe Biden's War with China is Making the USA Weaker

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The growing US' geopolitical competition with Russia and China marks the end of the post-Cold War world order, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, speaking at the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies on Wednesday. "What we are experiencing now is more than a test of the post-Cold War order. It's the end of it," he noted. "Decades of relative geopolitical stability have given way to an intensifying competition with authoritarian powers, revisionist powers." This statement appears to be a rallying cry for a "new cold war."

Since the post-Cold War order is coming to an end, what kind of new world order does the US want? Various signs indicate that the US wants major power competition and camp confrontation in order to maintain its global hegemony, even at the expense of the interests of other countries, including allies, and partner nations. However, the reality is that major power competition goes against the trend of the times and cannot solve the US' own problems and the challenges facing the world. It will only further divide the world, leading the world to slide toward a more dangerous cliff edge.

Regarding Blinken's remarks, there are two main points to consider. Firstly, Blinken was creating a sense of crisis in the world. The underlying message to US allies and other countries is that there are challengers, particularly China and Russia, who want to change the existing order. Secondly, Blinken's remarks also reflect a sense of anxiety in the US. The US is attempting to slow down China's rise through strategic competition, while hoping to sustain its hegemony without jeopardizing its own interests. However, it seems that the US has no clear solution to this dilemma.

China is one of the beneficiaries of the existing system and does not seek to challenge or subvert this order. However, the US has viewed any legitimate demand made by China, even those that reflect the reasonable demands of the majority of developing countries, as a challenge and ill-intentioned sabotage.

Xin Qiang, deputy director of the American Studies Center of Fudan University, believes that US irrational crackdown on China will only irritate China and other developing countries. Many developing countries share common demands with China, but the US opposes whatever China proposes and intends to strangle its legitimate right for development. This will ultimately lead to the destruction of the existing international order and be counterproductive to the US' goals.

The US believes that by containing China, it will gain an advantage. However, whatever damage they're doing to China, it also backfires on the US and even the world.

The US now sees China as a competitor and challenger, opposing and obstructing anything that may benefit China, regardless of its impact on the US. This approach not only fails to maintain US hegemony but also leads it further away from the right direction. 

Today, the US is embroiled in simultaneous confrontations with China and Russia. The US needs to think carefully, as it will be more difficult to engage in a "new cold war" compared to the previous one. In the 1970s, the US GDP accounted for nearly one-third of the global total, but now it is only one-fourth. Its two major opponents are the nuclear power Russia and the economic powerhouse China. In order to defeat Russia, the US must ultimately dismantle its nuclear deterrence, which would be a thrilling adventure. 

As for China, the US is attempting to stifle its development by imposing unlimited technological restrictions, but it is unable to completely decouple from China economically. For the US and its main allies, China is either their largest single trading partner or one of the largest. Today, the US is a reckless strategic aggressor, attempting to unite its relatively weaker strength with its allies to wage a new cold war. It should be noted that the power of US allies has declined significantly, and the unity of the "West" is crippled due to the US transitioning from a "blood donor" to a "vampire".

The current generation of American elites arrogantly seeks to replicate the victory of the Cold War, but they will never succeed. Instead, the US will face a different ending.

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Under the influence of some protectionists in the US, there's a rising possibility of “decoupling” in the high-tech field. In this process, China is not the only victim. Any developing country that achieves tech breakthroughs may become a target for US suppression.
By Global Times | 2023/9/17 23:01:08

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Friday, May 5, 2023

‘Empire of hackers’ uncovered


BEIJING: An investigation report was released on the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the United States, one of the major intelligence agencies of the US federal government, revealing an “empire of hackers” under US manipulation.

Over a long period, the CIA has been secretly orchestrating “peaceful evolution” and “colour revolutions” around the world, continuously conducting espionage activities, said the report by China’s National Computer Virus Emergency Response Centre and internet security company 360.

The rapid development of the internet this century has presented new opportunities for the CIA to conduct its infiltration, subversion and trouble-making activities, the report said.

The report disclosed important details of the weapons the CIA used for cyberattacks and details of specific cybersecurity cases taking place in China and other countries, and revealed the agency’s harmful activities including cyberattacks and espionage.

The report said it was meant to provide references and suggestions for victims of cyberattacks around the world.

The CIA has been involved in overthrowing or attempting to overthrow more than 50 legal governments of other countries, though it only admitted involvement in seven, causing turmoil in relevant countries, the report said.

It said the involvement of some Western countries with the help of the internet can be detected in multiple “colour revolution” cases.

After the “Arab Spring” in West Asia and North Africa, certain large multinational internet enterprises of the United States vigorously engaged in sending an abundance of personnel, material and financial resources to the conflicting sides, drawing over and supporting the opposition parties, and publicly challenging the legal governments of foreign countries that were not in the US interests. Such enterprises were also involved in assisting in the disinformation campaign and fanning the flames of protests among the public, the report said.

The report further cited several measures of such operations, including “The Onion Router (TOR)” technology that enables anonymous communication, developed by a US company with a reportedly US military background. It was provided free of charge to anti-government personnel in countries such as Iran, Tunisia and Egypt to help them evade surveillance.

Also, Google and Twitter developed a special service called “Speak2Tweet” to enable users to communicate when they are disconnected. The technology was used by anti-government forces in Tunisia and Egypt, said the report.

The cyberspace hegemony under US manipulation is shadowing the entire world, with the CIA launching automated, systematic and intelligent attacks worldwide, the report said.

After analysing relevant cases, the technical team found that the reach of such attack weapons has covered almost all internet and Internet of Things assets, making a foreign country susceptible to US control or espionage, the report said, adding that the US is a genuine “empire of hackers.” — Xinhua 

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'Empire of hacking' exposed: China Daily editorial

 

Although the Central Intelligence Agency had acquired exceptional experience in overthrowing governments by triggering "peaceful evolution" or instigating "color revolutions" in other countries before the emergence of the internet, it is the advancement of information and communication technology, in which the US enjoys huge advantages, that has greatly boosted the intelligence agency's capability to accomplish its goals in the new century.

The disintegration of the Soviet Union — the United States established the CIA in 1947 to counter Soviet intelligence wings — transformed the former socialist republics in Eastern and Central Europe, and created a golden opportunity for the CIA to trigger "color revolutions" in the region as well as in the Middle East and Central Asia.

The end of the Cold War gave the CIA the reason to help establish the US' global hegemony by exploiting its advantages in cyberspace to infiltrate, spy on and subvert other countries' governments.

A report "Empire of Hacking: the US Central Intelligence Agency — Part I" jointly published by China's National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center and the 360 Total Security, a Chinese cybersecurity company, on Thursday deserves credit for not only its systematic and professional approach to the ugly role of the CIA, but also its advice to the agency's "victims all around the world" in order to help them better respond to the US' cyberattacks and manipulations.

The report can also be seen as part of China's efforts to help build a community with a shared future in cyberspace, because it regards maintaining silence in the face of the CIA's dirty tricks as being complicit in the US' overall destructive strategy.

The report says that, working with US internet companies, the CIA provides encrypted network communication services, and reconnects service and on-site command communication tools directly for its proxies in targeted countries and regions. For instance, a software called RIOT, developed and promoted jointly by US companies and the CIA, helps the intelligence agency to remote control its pawns triggering demonstrations and riots in other countries, by ensuring they have reliable internet connection and channels of communication that are free from the local government's supervision.

"We lied, we cheated, we stole … we had entire training courses," said Mike Pompeo, former US secretary of state, on the nature of the CIA, an agency he led as director for years. This fact resonates with anyone who reads the NCVERC report.

The US is a country which pledges to help improve cyberspace governance and build a "clean internet" but actually spends all its expertise and high-tech advantages to further sharpen its cyber-espionage and cyber-attack weapons, while claiming to be the largest victim of cyberattacks. 

 

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China's National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center and cybersecurity company 360 jointly released an investigation report on Thursday, revealing the long-standing use of cyber attacks by the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) against other countries. While this is an "eye-opener" for many people, the CIA's obsession and ability to create unrest disturb them significantly.

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The new Cold War heats up

Thursday, May 4, 2023

The new Cold War heats up


 Insightful views: Kishore giving his assessment on the US-China rivalry during his lecture in Kuala Lumpur. -

The new Cold War heats up

International relations expert Kishore Mahbubani has interesting views on US-China rivalry and the role Asean could play.

IT’S not every day that one gets to hear directly from Prof Kishore Mahbubani, one of the best thinkers on international relations.

In fact, it had taken the organiser, the Malaysian Institute of Management, over two years to invite the Singaporean diplomat, academician and best-selling author to Kuala Lumpur.

Those of us who turned up for his lecture on Tuesday evening wanted to hear his assessment of the United States-China rivalry, which is certain to get worse in the coming years.

Kishore is a Distinguished Fellow at the Asian Research Institute, National University of Singapore, and has had two notable careers – 33 years in diplomacy and 15 years in academia.

He was the founding dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and spent over 10 years as Singapore’s ambassador to the United Nations.

He has authored several books, including best-sellers such as Can Asians Think? and Has The West Lost It?.His insightful views on the US-China geopolitical rivalry have grabbed the attention of many.

Gloomy as it may be, it is certain and unavoidable – in Kishore’s own words – that the rivalry will worsen as the Chinese push to challenge the United States for dominance.

For us living in the Asean region, especially Malaysians, it is more troubling as the power play is taking place in our backyard, the South China Sea, while Taiwan is merely about four hours away by flight.

Kishore predicts the contest, if not already a feud, will accelerate in the next 10 years and he doesn’t see it quietening down.

The scenario is unprecedented as for the first time in human history, these two superpowers are colliding.

Driven by what he describes as structural forces, he sees China as the “No. 2 that is about to take over as No. 1 and the US will push down China” at all costs as the latter does not see itself losing its pole position.

“They should learn from the Malaysian monarchy (where the reigning King) steps down every five years,’’ he joked.

He said in his highly provocative titled book Has China Won? that it hasn’t helped that the many US policymakers who will drive this geopolitical contest are “possessed by a psychology that sees all competition among great powers as a zero-sum game”.

“Hence, if China steps up its naval deployments in the South China Sea, the US Navy will see it as a loss and step up its presence in the region,” he said.

There is much insecurity on the part of the United States as “it is far from certain that America will win the contest as China has as good a chance as America of emerging as the dominant influence in the world”.

“In fact, many thoughtful leaders and observers in strategically sensitive countries around the world have begun making preparations for a world where China may become number one,” said Kishore.

He said it was an error of perception for America to view the CCP as a Chinese Communist Party embedded in communist roots, when in the eyes of Asian observers, the CCP actually functions as the “Chinese Civilisation Party” with its soul rooted in Chinese civilisation.

But Kishore has some advice for China – never underestimate the United States.

It’s a giant that has woken up and it has won the narrative, with the support of a powerful international media, that it is a contest between a democracy and an authoritarian government.

“It has been a strategic mistake for American thinkers to take success for granted, it would be an equally colossal strategic mistake for China to assume the same,” he said.

Painting the Chinese as demonic has been an easy selling point to the American public, most of whom have never travelled out of their country, added Kishore, saying in his book that it will be easier “for Americans to persist in the belief that they would eventually triumph against China, no matter the odds”.

Both the Republicans and Democrats have adopted the same tone and strategy of containing China.

So, it doesn’t matter who the next US President is although it got worse under President Donald Trump. It has simply become a bipartisan policy.

The rest of the world, especially Asean, will be affected by this great power play. No one will be spared as pressure will be applied to countries to take sides.

Even a simple acquisition of technology, such as using Huawei’s applications, has turned complicated.

Kishore shared an anecdote of how a British top official had told him that it would use Huawei as security clearance, and with a stiff upper lip, said there was no reason for it to submit to US pressure.

But just months later, the United Kingdom “crumbled” to US pressure and abandoned Huawei.

He feared that Taiwan would be a more sensitive issue than the South China Sea as it benefits the United States and China to keep the international waterways safe for freedom of navigation.

But Taiwan is a more potential flash point. It is the red line that no one should cross, and most Asians know it and “they shut up”, he said, advising Asian countries to continue with this approach.

The Chinese see Taiwan as a renegade province that belongs to China and do not tolerate any moves to push for independence. Most countries adopt a One China policy and have no diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Kishore said for a long time, the United States stayed away from the Taiwan issue, but now it has been broached and “it is not rational, it’s dangerous and emotional”.

But he said Asean could play an influential role to speak up for moderate measures to initiate dialogues between the United States and China and to help reduce tensions that could contribute to possibilities of a war.

He acknowledged that Asean may be “weak and chaotic”, but paradoxically, no one sees the grouping as a threat and its meetings were all attended by the powerful nations.

“Everyone loves Asean. It has convening abilities,” he said, adding that both China and the United States had invested huge amounts there compared to other regions of the world.

China has been the largest market for Asean exports for the past 12 years and Malaysia’s number one trading partner for the past 15 consecutive years, while Asean countries collectively are the United States’ fourth largest trading partner.

Together, they represent a market with a gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$3 trillion (RM13.38 trillion). US goods and services traded with Asean totalled an estimated US$362.2bil (RM1.62 trillion) in 2020.

Kishore said while the US-China contest may be a gloomy topic, there is also a positive aspect as both sides will woo support and attention, adding that it was good to be courted but reaffirmed that Asean members must stay out of the feud.

“It is said that when elephants fight, the grass gets trampled, but let’s not forget that when elephants make love, it tramples too,’’ he said in jest.

Talk is better than war and for a start, the rhetoric can be lowered down. A deeper rationality is needed and surely, there is a need to accept that the world has changed.

A painful and unnecessary clash needs to be avoided. The journey for both sides to work together has to start soon.


Wong Chun Wai began his career as a journalist in Penang, and has served The Star for over 35 years in various capacities and roles. He is now group editorial and corporate affairs adviser to the group, after having served as group managing director/chief executive officer. On The Beat made its debut on Feb 23 1997 and Chun Wai has penned the column weekly without a break, except for the occasional press holiday when the paper was not published. In May 2011, a compilation of selected articles of On The Beat was published as a book and launched in conjunction with his 50th birthday. Chun Wai also comments on current issues in The Star.

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Saturday, January 11, 2020

US gains limited from changed China policy


 

The year 2019 has been one in which US sought to reconstruct its relations with China.

First, the US reset the premise of its policies toward China. From former president Bill Clinton to Barack Obama, Washington used to consider living with a rising China conditionally as the precondition; but since Donald Trump took office, he has changed the relatively friendly premise into a hostile one. Trying to slow down China's development and preventing the country from surpassing or even replacing the US have become the real intention of his China policy.

Second, the US reframed its relations with China, taking economic and trade ties as the turning point, as well as putting in more efforts in diplomacy, security, politics and culture. The key tools in its reconstruction of economic and trade ties were the war of tariffs, technology and finance.

During 2019, the trade war launched by the US against China saw many ups and downs. The number of products on which the two sides slapped duties reached an unprecedented scale. With the escalating tech war against China, the US Commerce Department added Huawei and 70 affiliates to its "entity list." Besides, China was listed as a currency manipulator by the US Department of Treasury.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration carried out a whole-of-government approach to compete with China and imposed all-round pressure on China.

The US has continued to meddle in Taiwan-related affairs. The Trump administration approved the sale of 66 F-16 fighters to Taiwan in August, the biggest military transaction between the US and Taiwan. Then US National Security Advisor John Bolton's meeting with Taiwan's National Security Council (NSC) head David Lee in the White House in May indicated the upgrade of US-Taiwan relations, which happened for the first time since 1950s.

Most seriously, the US was trying to promote Taiwan's status as a sovereign state. In the Indo-Pacific Strategy Report issued by US Department of Defense, Taiwan was publicly listed as a country; and the Coordination Council for North American Affairs was changed into Taiwan Council for US Affairs.

In 2019, US so-called freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea were much more aggressive. The China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was also besieged and smeared by the US. The US Indo-Pacific Strategy is meant to counter China's BRI.

Additionally, the US has stepped up competition with China politically and ideologically and kept attacking China's political system.

In terms of the issues of Xinjiang and Hong Kong, US interference was way more blatant than before. The US even passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, in order to legalize its future interference in the Hong Kong issue. Moreover, the US attacked China's governance in Xinjiang. Not only did the Ministry of Commerce impose export control over 28 Chinese business entities, but the US Department of State also announced visa restrictions against Chinese officials and their relatives. US Congress, furthermore, passed the so-called Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act, keeping up the pressure on China even more.

The series of measures the Trump administration employed to restructure the China-US relationship framework are aggressive.

The Trump administration is trying to change the way China and US interact. It believes that Washington should abandon the engagement policy and cooperation should give way to strategic competition and that the US must pressure China to make concessions. That being the case, the Trump administration has changed the approach of engagement and hedging, reduced engagement and cooperation, and increased confrontation and conflicts with China.

When some hawks within the Trump government talk about China-US competition, what they really want are confrontation and conflict. Many working-level dialogue mechanisms established during the George W. Bush and Obama administrations are no longer in operation. Now Washington resorts to trade, technological and financial wars as well as sanctions. How far can the US go in this way?

First, it depends on how much price the US is willing to pay. Competition, decoupling, confrontation, and non-cooperation all come at a price. The US-launched trade war against China has impacted US agricultural and manufacturing industries and forced consumers to pay more, while the technological war has put the US high-tech industry under risk of losing the Chinese market. Escalating military competition with China means a significant increase in US military expenditure. Restricting China-US people-to-people exchanges will also cause losses to American universities and research institutions.

In fact, with the negative effects of the Trump administration's China policy increasingly becoming apparent, doubts within the US have grown. Although the US elites have generally reached a consensus on a tougher stance against China, they have yet to agree on how much price the US can pay.

Second, China-US relations are the result of bilateral interactions and cannot be unilaterally decided by the US. Facing heightened US pressure, China is exploring more effective ways to respond. Beijing is not afraid of competition.

Finally, the attitudes of the international community and the US allies matter. The China policy and other foreign policies of the Trump administration not only aimed at maximizing US interests, but also have the features of protectionism and unilateralism. The trade war against China has damaged global industrial and value chains, undermining the interests of other countries including US allies.

To sum up, although the US has benefited from its China policy recalibration, its gains are limited. How far will the US move to restructure its relations with China go? It hinges on the changes in US domestic politics as well as China's will and art in wrangling with the US.

By Wu Xinbo Source:Global Times - The author is dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University.


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