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Saturday, August 25, 2012

The Libor fuss!

The story behind the Libor scandal


Logos of 16 Banks Involved in Libor Scandal - YouTube


SINCE the outbreak of the Libor scandal, readers' reaction has ranged from the very basic: What's this Libor? to the more mundane: How does it affect me?

Some friends have raised more critical questions: Barclays appears to have manipulated Libor to lower it; isn't that good? The problem first arose in early 2008; why isn't it resolved by now? By popular demand to demystify this very everydayness at which banks fix this far-reaching key rate, today's column will be devoted to going behind the scandal starting from the very basics about the mechanics of fixing the rate, to what really happened (why Barclays paid the huge fines in settlement), to its impact and how to fix the problem.

What's Libor

The London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (Libor) was first conceived in the 1980s as a trusty yardstick to measure the cost (interest rate) of short-term funds which highly-rated banks borrow from one another. Each day at 11am in London, the setting process at the British Bankers' Association (BBA) gets moving, recording submissions by a select group of global banks (including three large US banks) estimates of the perceived rates they would pay to borrow unsecured in “reasonable market size” for various currencies and for different maturities.

Libor is then calculated using a “trimmed” average, excluding the highest and lowest 25% of the submissions. Within minutes, the benchmark rates flash on to thousands and thousands of traders' screens around the world, and ripple onto the prices of loans, derivatives contracts and other financial instruments worth many, many times the global GDP. Indeed, it has been estimated that the Libor-based financial market is worth US$800 trillion, affecting the prices that you and me and corporations around the world pay for loans or receive for their savings.

A file photo showing a pedestrian passing a Barclays bank branch in London. Barclays has been fined £290mil (US$450mil) by UK and US regulators for manipulating Libor. — EPA

Indeed, anyone with a credit card, mortgage or car loan, or fixed deposit should care about their rate being manipulated by the banks that set them. In the end, it is used as a benchmark to determine payments on the global flow of financial instruments. Unfortunately, it turns out to have been flawed, bearing in mind Libor is not an interest rate controlled or even regulated directly by the central bank. It is an average set by BBA, a private trade body.

In practice, for working purposes, Libor rates are set essentially for 10 currencies and for 15 maturities. The most important of these relates to the 3-month US dollar, i.e. what a bank would pay to borrow US dollar for 3 months from other banks. It is set by a panel of 18 banks with the top 4 and bottom 4 estimates being discarded. Libor is the simple average (arithmetic mean) of what is left. All submissions are disclosed, along with the day's Libor fix. Its European counterpart, Euro Interbank Offered Rate (Euribor), is similarly fixed in Brussels. However, Euribor banks are not asked (as in Libor) to provide estimates of what they think they could have to pay to borrow; merely estimates of what the borrowing rate between two “prime” banks should be. In practice, “prime” now refers to German banks. This simply means there is in the market a disconnect between the actual borrowing costs by banks across Europe and the benchmark. Today, Euribor is less than 1%, but Italian banks (say) have to pay 350-40 basis points above it. Around the world, there would similarly be Tibor (Tokyo Inter-Bank Offered Rate); Sibor and its related SOR (Swap-Offered Rate) in Singapore; Klibor in Kuala Lumpur; etc.

What's wrong with Libor?

Theoretically, if banks played by the rules, Libor will reflect what it's supposed to a reliable yardstick to measure what it cost banks to borrow from one another. The flaw is that, in practice, the system can be rigged. First, it is based on estimates, not actual prices at which banks have lent to or borrowed from one another. They are not transactions based, an omission that widens the scope for manipulation. Second, the bank's estimate is supposed to be ring-fenced from other parts of the bank. But unfortunately walls have “holes” often incentivised by vested-interest in profit making by the interest-rate derivatives trading arm of the business. The total market in such derivatives has been estimated at US$554 trillion in 2011. So, even small changes can imply big profits. Indeed, it has been reported that each basis point (0.01%) movement in Libor could reap a net profit of “a couple of million US dollar.”

The lack of transparency in the Libor setting mechanism has tended to exacerbate this urge to cheat. Since the scandal, damning evidence has emerged from probes by regulators in the UK and US, including whistle blowing by employees in a number of banks covering a past period of at least five years. More are likely to emerge from investigations in other nations, including Canada, Japan, EU and Switzerland. The probes cover some of the largest banks, including reportedly Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, UBS, HSBC and Deutsche Bank.

Why Barclays?

Based on what was since disclosed, the Libor scandal has set the stage for lawsuits and demands for more effective regulation the world over. It has led to renewed banker bashing and dented the reputation of the city of London. Barclays, a 300-year old British bank, is in the spotlight simply because it is the first bank to co-operate fully with regulators. It's just the beginning a matter of time before others will be put on the dock. The disclosures and evidence appear damaging. They reveal unacceptable behaviour at Barclays. Two sorts of motivation are discernible.

First, there is manipulation of Libor to trap higher profits in trading. Its traders very brazenly pushed its own money market dealers to manipulate their submissions for fixing Libor, including colluding with counter-parties at other banks. Evidence point to cartel-like association with others to fiddle Libor, with the view to profiteering (or reduce losses) on their derivative exposures. The upshot is that the bank profited from this bad behaviour. Even Bob Diamond, the outgoing Barclays CEO, admitted this doctoring of Libor in favour of the bank's trading positions was “reprehensible.”

Second, there is the rigging of Libor by submitting “lowered” rates at the onset of the credit crunch in 2007 when the authorities were perceived to be keen to bolster confidence in banks (to avoid bailouts) and keep credit flowing; while “higher” (but more realistic) rates submission would be regarded as a sign of its own financial weakness. It would appear in this context as some have argued that a “public good” of sorts was involved. In times of systemic banking crisis, regulators do have a clear motive for wanting a lower Libor. The rationale behind this approach was categorically invalidated by the Bank of England. Like it or not, Barclays has since been fined £290mil (US$450mil) by UK and US regulators for manipulating Libor (£60mil fine by the UK Financial Services Authority is the highest ever imposed even after a 30% discount because it co-operated).

Efforts at reform

Be that as it may, Libor is something of an anachronism, a throwback to a time long past when trust was more important than contract. Concern over Libor goes way back to the early 2008 when reform of the way it is determined was first mooted. BBA's system is akin to an auction. After all, auctions are commonly used to find prices where none exist. It has many variants: from the “English” auction used to sell rare paintings to the on-line auction (as in e-Bay). In the end, every action aims to elicit committed price data from bidders.

As I see it, a more credible Libor fixing system would need four key changes: (i) use of actual lending rates; (ii) outlaw (penalise) false bidding bidders need to be committed to their price; (iii) encourage non-banks also to join in the process to avoid collusion and cartelisation; and (iv) intrusively monitor the process by an outside regulator to ensure tougher oversight.

However, there are many practical challenges to the realisation of a new and improved Libor. Millions of contracts that are Libor-linked may have to be rewritten. This will be difficult and a herculean exercise in the face of lawsuits and ongoing investigations. Critical to well-intentioned reform is the will to change. But with lawsuits and prosecutions gathering pace, the BBA and banking fraternity have little choice but to rework Libor now. As I understand it, because gathering real data can often pose real problems especially at times of financial stress, the most likely solution could be a hybrid. Here, banks would continue to submit estimated cost, but would be required to back them with as many actuals as feasible. To be transparent, they might need to be audited ex-post. Such blending could offer a practical way out.

Like it or not, the global banking industry possibly faces what the Economist has since dubbed as its “tobacco moment,” referring to litigation and settlement that cost the US tobacco industry more than US$200bil in 1988. Sure, actions representing a wide-range of plaintiffs have been launched. But, the legal machinery will grind slowly. Among the claimants are savers in bonds and other instruments linked to Libor (or its equivalent), especially those dealing directly with banks involved in setting the rate. The legal process will prove complicated, where proof of “harm” can get very involved. For the banks face asymmetric risk because they act most of the time as intermediaries those who have “lost” will sue, but banks will be unable to claim from others who “gained.” Much also depends on whether the regulator “press” them to pay compensation; or in the event legal settlements get so large as to require new bailouts (for those too big to fail), to protect them. What a mess.

What, then, are we to do?

Eighty years ago banker JP Morgan jr was reported to have remarked in the midst of the Great Depression: “Since we have not more power of knowing the future than any other men, we have made many mistakes (who has not during the past five years?), but our mistakes have been errors of judgement and not of principle.” Indeed, bankers have since gone overboard and made some serious mistakes, from crimes against time honoured principles to downright fraud. Manipulating Libor is unacceptable. So much so bankers have since lost the public trust. It's about time to rebuild a robust but gentlemanly culture, based on the very best time-tested traditions of banking. They need to start right now.

WHAT ARE WE TO DO By TAN SRI LIN SEE-YAN

Former banker, Dr Lin is a Harvard educated economist and a British Chartered Scientist who speaks, writes and consults on economic and financial issues. Feedback is most welcome; email: starbizweek@thestar.com.my.

The right property mix

Making housing affordable, avoiding a property bubble and ensuring there is no over or under development are some key issues.

FOR the vast majority of people property means getting a respectable roof over their heads with proper amenities in a decent neighbourhood, and getting it affordably.\

For others, it is about getting a second or third property or more for the sake of investment – a good return eventually for the price they paid and as a hedge against inflation because property prices mostly continue to rise in the long term much faster than inflation.

The most sophisticated of them don’t just restrict their investments to the residential market but dabble as well in commercial and industrial space such as shops, offices and factories, wherever they may be located.

Socially, there has to be regulation of property development not only to ensure that it is done up to certain standards but to ensure a proper mix between the various kinds of development such as residential, commercial and industrial and the various segments within these broad sectors.

It would be a mistake to micromanage however and within broad guidelines, it is often best to leave it to the market place to adjust things. But it does take a long time for things to adjust in property because of the gestation period before a property can be brought to market.

Ideally, property development should take place under the aegis of a broad master plan which has been formulated after intense study and research, taking into account projected population growth and other demographics. It should be dynamic to take into account changes.

Unfortunately we don’t stick to a plan in terms of development and even when there is a master plan it is often overruled by those in authority for other reasons which are often not compelling from an economic viewpoint.

In residential development, the greatest challenge is, of course, providing decent housing at affordable cost to the vast majority of the population. Unfortunately that is also a function of income – if people are poor, they won’t be able to afford nice houses no matter what.

But we are a middle-income country and we can do some things to keep prices of properties within reasonable levels. The best gauge of that is in relation to our own income level instead of making comparisons with countries with much higher incomes (eg Singapore) or those where special situations make property expensive (eg Mumbai).

Prices are always a function of demand and supply. Some moves simply increase demand, often without a fundamental increase in demand for actual occupation. Opening up property purchases to foreigners often result in a spurt in demand at the time of sale but properties may not get occupied. Look at some high-end properties in Mont’Kiara and around the twin towers area in Kuala Lumpur for illustration.

Also, making a leveraged property purchase easy encourages property speculation. If you pay 5% down and if your next payment is two years later and if the property appreciates just 10%, you have made 100% (before transaction costs) in two years or 50% a year roughly. That is powerful incentive for speculation, creating an artificial demand that can collapse two years out.

To curb such kinds of speculation which lead to temporary surges in house prices and a potential bursting of the bubble in future, it will be necessary to curb foreign property purchases and easy financing schemes.

Meantime, the state and federal governments and their agencies must be more circumspect about handing out their landed assets to developers at very low cost to develop. Developers naturally want to maximise their returns and high-end, high-density properties offer the best returns.

Instead governments and their agencies should develop a master plan for the land they have and allocate the areas meant for low-cost, medium and high-end residential as well as commercial and industrial. Then they can invite the developers to bid for the parcels they will develop.

All that would take a lot of work, yes, but nothing worthwhile comes without proper effort. Examples to emulate for low-cost to medium-cost housing might be the Singapore Housing Development Board which has strict criteria for purchase of property, resale and standards.

Examples not to emulate would be Singapore again which has adopted a free and unfettered stance as far as sale of property to foreigners is concerned which has priced high-end property beyond the vast majority of Singaporeans to become the domain of multi-millionaires.

Incidentally, this is one of the major complaints of Singaporeans who otherwise have little to complain about in terms of economic development and living standards given their tiny space and resources. That has been reflected in voting trends too, leading the government to descend from its mighty perch of “I know it all” to re-examine its policies.

In commercial development, the trend in Malaysia has been to cramp it all in as little space as possible to maximise development profits. Abetment comes from authorities who give approvals with little or no thought of proper planning considerations such as availability of parking, public transport and whether it will cause congestion.

Many developers are willing to take the plunge into commercial development because of high profits. The danger of over-development is the greatest here, especially with plans to set up a new financial district called the Tun Razak Exchange, which will result in plenty of commercial space coming on stream in Kuala Lumpur city. Developers in this area have been granted tax exemption which will cause market distortions by giving them an advantage over others.

Under the circumstances, authorities have to be extra-vigilant to ensure that there are no untoward pressures on the property market, both in terms of a boom or a bust.

Speculation and ill-considered development can cause a volatile, mercurial mix which if it explodes can cause years of agony. Better a sensible, more stable brew that stands the test of time and ages gracefully.

A QUESTION OF BUSINESS By P. GUNASEGARAM starbiz@thestar.com.my

P Gunasegaram (t.p.guna@gmail.com) is an independent consultant and writer. He believes strongly in the old adage that prevention is better than cure.

How to avoid future complications when buying a house?

Points to consider when buying a house to avoid future complications


CAN you afford a house now?

Assuming you can afford a house, how much can you afford to pay? These are important questions that many people do not research. This oversight can lead many people to bad debt and even bankruptcy.

Your monthly expenditures will be more than just the housing loan. There will also be insurance, electricity, water, telephone bills, contributions to maintenance fund, medical bills, groceries, unexpected household/auto repairs, lunch money and many other obligations.

They must all be accounted for in your budget spreadsheet. For many of us the purchase of a house or property is the largest financial commitment we will ever make. This makes arranging the most suitable housing loan just as important.

Make sure you know the costs of entering into the loan for the purchase of the property. They include conveyancing, application fees, valuation and legal fees, mortgage insurance (if necessary) and sometimes, extra life insurance premiums.

Some lenders will tell you the advantages of whatever housing loans they are trying to squeeze you into, but rarely will they tell you the disadvantages.

According to an article in a business magazine, the banking system is flush with RM180bil liquidity. This explains the increasingly aggressive sales promotions undertaken by financial institutions for the housing industry.

Always look at the total deal, not some dangling carrots in front of you. Compare the entire housing loan cost of different lenders to determine which is best for you.

I would like to discuss some of the lenders' offers that may not be as attractive as they appear. I will start with the special low interest offered for the first year. Such an offer is usually given during a sale campaign and it usually carries a fixed calendar period with a run-out date. Thus, even if a house buyer commenced his application process immediately upon the launch of the campaign, by the time the loan is approved and disbursement commences, the period remaining to enjoy this special low interest rate will certainly be less than one year.

If he were to start the application process a few months after the campaign, it is likely that he will enjoy the special low rate for only a very short period.

Due to our unique system of progressive payments to the developers, the mean average of the amount disbursed by the banks during the “first year low interest offer,” is really lower than the loan amount. Thus, any saving on interests is really much less than it seems. And these have all been figured out already by those marketing experts in the banks.

A more sincere approach would be to offer the special low interest rate to apply during the progressive payment period and to continue to run for one year after the date when the loan is fully disbursed. Only then can such offers bear some element of sincerity. I believe that anything short of that makes the offer a sales marketing gimmick.

There are other clauses that put house buyers in a disadvantaged situation. Some lenders include clauses in the loan agreements that give them the absolute rights to alter both the Base Lending Rates and/or the margin of interests.

Doesn't this in effect nullify their typical attractive offer of “BLR plus X% for following years?”

One cannot make a special low interest offer in the sales campaign and then contractually (through the loan agreement) creates a clause to allow that special offer interest rate to be invalidated. Make sure you know all the costs of early discharge of the loan.

One other clause to look out for is the redemption of the loan. A house buyer may wish to sell the house and wished to fully-settle the loan.

This is where the conditions for full-settlement differ from one financial institution to another. Think long term.

When one takes a loan, one spends a much longer period servicing the loan beyond the first year or even the second and the third year. So do not be taken in by the very attractive offers during the honeymoon year/s of the tenure of your loan. Remember, the remaining of the 25 years is more important. Do not go for short-term gains only to lose out heavily on the long remaining years.

I would advise house buyers to look beyond the first year of so-called low interest when shopping for housing loans. With the stiff competition among the various lenders today, one should seriously shop around and scrutinise each and every offer before commencing the application process. Talk to your bankers, lawyer friends or seek advice from the National House Buyers Association.

One really has to scrutinise the fine print before making a decision as to which financial institution to go to for a loan. It is about time to standardisde the terms and conditions in the loan agreement so that there will be orderliness in the banking industry.

No more “embedded” clauses within the voluminous stakes of papers one has to initial giving the impression that one has truly read and understood them. It is obviously impossible to read and understand those 40 over pages of legal language that comes with appendixes.

BUYERS BEWARE
By CHANG KIM LOONG 

Chang Kim Loong is the honorary secretary-general of The National House Buyers Association, a non-profit, non-governmental, non-political organisation manned by volunteers. For more information, check www.hba.org.my or e-mail info@hba.org.my

Friday, August 24, 2012

Credit-tightening cooling down property market

 Loan approvals for home purchase decline


The banks' tighter lending rules have slightly diminished the actual sales in the residential property market, according to real estate consultants as well as Bank Negara Malaysia data.

Bank Negara's website revealed that the percentage of loan approvals for houses have declined to 46.8 percent in 1H2012 from 50.1 percent over the same period last year.

The amount of mortgage applications for home purchases rose by 2.9 percent year-on-year to RM96.7 billion in 1H2012. However, the value of loans that were approved fell from RM47 billion to RM45.26 billion.

Paul Khong, Executive Director of CB Richard Ellis Malaysia (CBRE), noted that residential property prices could be affected if the mortgage approval rate continues to decline.

"In order to conclude transactions, residential property sellers may now need to realistically adjust their selling prices as many of the buyers cannot get their loan applications approved," added Khong.

CBRE's recent report on Kuala Lumpur's housing market also noted a decline in the percentage of loan approvals in Q2 2012. The report revealed that the rate "was as high as 60.5 percent during the first five months of 2008, and has declined steadily since."

The report also highlighted that the lower rate could be due to the central bank's new lending guidelines.

Anthony Chua, Director of KGV International Property Consultants, commented that although the demand for homes continues to be high, the tougher lending measures have somehow cooled the market.

"We are still monitoring the situation. There is less transactional activity in the market this year for both new property launches and the secondary market compared with last year," said Chua.

Related Stories:
Bank Negara should extend guidelines to non-bank lenders
New guideline axes loan approvals non-bankable borrowers
Loan demand remains stable

 Actual sale of residential properties declining


PETALING JAYA: The residential property market may be cooling down in terms of actual sales due to credit-tightening measures by banks, according to real estate consultants and Bank Negara data.

Bank Negara's website showed loan approvals' percentage for residential properties in the country declined to 46.8% in the first half of this year from 50.1% during the same period in 2011.

The number of loans applied for purchases of residential properties increased by 2.9% year-on-year in the first half of this year to RM96.7bil.

However, the number of residential property loans approved during the six-month period declined to RM45.26bil from RM47bil in the same period in 2011.

It is also worth noting that the loan approval percentage for non-residential properties was stable at 52.3% in the first half of this year, compared with 52.4% during the same period in 2011.


The number of loans applied (RM50.35bil) and approved (RM26.35bil) for purchases of non-residential properties was also stable in the first half of this year.

CB Richard Ellis (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd executive director Paul Khong said if the housing loan approval rate continued to decline, it will affect residential property prices.

“In order to conclude transactions, residential property sellers may now need to realistically adjust their selling prices as many of the buyers cannot get their loan applications approved,” he said.

KGV International Property Consultants director Anthony Chua said although the demand for residential properties continued to be high, the credit-tightening measures by banks had resulted in the market “cooling somewhat”.

“We are still monitoring the situation. There is less transactional activity in the market this year for both new property launches and the secondary market compared with last year,” said Chua.

Property consultancy CB Richard Ellis (M) Sdn Bhd had, in its recent report on the Kuala Lumpur residential market for the second quarter of 2012, also noted that there was a significant decline in the loan approval percentage this year.

“The loan approval rate was as high as 60.5% during the first five months of 2008, and has declined steadily since,” said the report.

The CBRE report said that the lower rate of loan approvals this year could be attributed to the implementation of new lending guidelines by Bank Negara.

Effective this year, banks have started using net income instead of gross income to calculate the debt service ratio for loans.

“Anecdotal evidence from real estate agents suggests that transactional activity has also declined as a result.”

The property consultancy also pointed out that despite the lower loan approval rates, buyer interest in new property launches, typically of smaller housing units in secondary locations, during the second quarter remained strong with developers continuing to offer attractive incentives to the purchasers such as the developer interest bearing scheme (DIBS), early bird discounts, free built-in cabinets and free legal fees.

“We expect 2012 to be a period of stabilisation especially within the luxury residential market, with transactional activity depressed by uncertain economic conditions and the reduction in loan approval percentage, which remains well below 50%.”

The CBRE report also said speculative property purchases were expected to be reduced for the rest of this year, as a result of tighter lending conditions, uncertain economic outlook, and concerns about the outcome of the upcoming general election.

Meanwhile, another property consultant said the tighter lending conditions had taken a visible toll on the secondary residential property market.

“Newly-launched properties are selling well thanks to better financing access, especially with the DIBS offered by many property developers.”

The consultant said slower sales activities in the secondary residential property market had resulted in innovative offers from marketing agents.

“This includes transactions where buyers sign the sales and purchase agreement but take the bank loans only a year or twolater. In effect, the buyers lock in the unit price now (perhaps in anticipation of further increases in market prices) and defer payment until much later. This works just like an informal DIBS,” he said.

In a recent report, Kenanga Research also said based on its channel checks, the secondary market appeared to be very weak and prices of secondary and primary products have diverged further.

The research unit opined that buyers were more focussed on new launches due to financing and promotional schemes.

“From a bank's perspective, we think there is a preference to lend to the primary market as it means better asset quality whilst banks can get all-in' deals with developers (for example, end-financing to bridging to land financing) to ensure a more balanced systems loans growth.”

Kenanga Research also opined that as a result, property developers can continue to grab greater market share and chalk-up high sales, although it expected Malaysia's overall residential transaction value growth to be relatively unexciting at 5% year-on-year.

It was noted that despite the tighter lending criteria, Malaysia's total residential transaction values have remained stable in the first quarter of this year.

It said buying interest remained strong, due to residential property buyers hedging against inflation and the lack of alternative investments, but this will be reigned in by more prudent lending criteria and the banking system's fear of real-estate tightening measures such as higher real property gains tax.

By THOMAS HUONG huong@thestar.com.my/Asia News Network