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Showing posts with label GDP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GDP. Show all posts

Saturday, February 18, 2012

Unconventional Thinking: Small is Beautiful!

Cover of "Small Is Beautiful: Economics a...
Cover via Amazon

Lessons from unconventional thinking

THINK ASIAN By ANDREW SHENG

AT a time when there is great awareness that mainstream economic theory is seriously flawed, many of us are looking for alternative models of economic thinking.

I have in my collection a book by an English economist EF Schumacher called Small is Beautiful, first published in 1973, but never read it. Last month, I finally read it and was overwhelmed by its brilliant and unconventional approach to economic thinking.

The book became almost cult reading when it came out 40 years ago, in the aftermath of the first energy crisis.

The author was a Jewish refugee from Germany to England who studied in Oxford and Columbia Universities. He became the Economic Advisor to the British National Coal Board and was sent in 1955 to work in Burma as an economic development advisor.

It was from his experience there, including staying in a Buddhist monastery that he evolved highly a non-Western way to consider human development, including living within the limits of natural resources and using intermediate technology.

This explains why Chapter 4 of this book was called Buddhist Economics.

The book is actually a collection of essays written at different times. Like his teachers, Keynes and John Kenneth Galbraith, Schumacher wrote in elegant and striking prose:-

“One of the most fateful errors of our age is the belief that the problem of production has been solved. The illusion... is mainly due to our inability to recognise that the modern industrial system, with all its intellectual sophistication, consumes the very basis on which it has been erected. To use the language of the economist, it lives on irreplaceable capital which it cheerfully treats as income.”

He immediately plunges into an attack on the whole philosophy of modern economics that reduces everything into monetary values as measured by GDP, arguing that the logic of limitless growth is wrong: “... that economic growth, which viewed from the point of view of economics, physics, chemistry, and technology, has no discernable limit must necessary run into decisive bottlenecks when viewed from the point of view of the environmental sciences. An attitude to life which seeks fulfilment in the single-minded pursuit of wealth in short, materialism does not fit into this world, because it contains within itself no limiting principle, while the environment in which it is placed is strictly limited.”



Being a system-wide thinker, he deplored the narrowness of economics:-

“Economists themselves, like most specialists, normally suffer from a kind of metaphysical blindness, assuming that theirs is a science of absolute and invariable truths, without any presuppositions.”

He was probably the earliest to recognise that the concepts of GDP ignored the costs of depletion of natural resources and the high social damage through pollution: “It is inherent in the methodology of economics to ignore man's dependence on the natural world.”

Most recent reviewers of his book commended him on the accuracy of his forecasts (forty years ago) on population and the rate of consumption of energy resources.

Some reviewers consider that the book brilliantly explained the “Why” of the need to conserve, but not the “how”. I think he went deeper than that.

Schumacher was not just a social philosopher but a practical observer of large scale social organisations, particularly bureaucracies. The realist side of him can be found from this quote: “An ounce of practice is generally worth more than a ton of theory.”

Indeed, he was very insightful of the importance of smallness in large organisation. This was because as organisations become larger and larger, they become more impersonal.

He recognised the inherent contradictions within large organisations that have alternating phases of centralising and decentralising.

Here, he noted that the solution is not either-or, but the-one-and-the-other-at-the-same-time. In other words, contradictions and illogical situations are inherent in large systems.

This is because all organisations struggle to have “the orderliness of order and the disorderliness of creative freedom.” Every organisation struggles with the orderly administrator versus the creative (disorderly) entrepreneur or innovator.

From this basic contradiction, Schumacher has a theory of large-scale organisation divided into five principles, which are worthwhile researching further.

The first principle is Subsidiarity which is that the upper authority should delegate to the lower level powers where it is obvious that the lower levels can function more efficiently than the central authority.

The second principle is Vindication namely, governance by exception. The centre delegates and only intervenes under exceptional circumstances which are clearly defined.

The third principle is Identification the subsidiary must have clear accounting in the form of balance sheets and profit and loss account.

The fourth principle is Motivation here he recognises that motivation at the lower levels of large organisation is low if everything is directed from the top. This is where the values of the organisation become critical in addition to rewards in terms of money.

The fifth is the Principle of the Middle Axiom. He notes that “the centre can easily look after order; it is not so easy to look after freedom and creativity.”

The word “Axiom” means a self-evident truth. The Principle of the Middle Axiom is “an order from above which is yet not an order.”

In practical terms, you set out an objective, but do not detail and direct how that objective is to be achieved, giving some degree of innovation and freedom for the subsidiary levels of the organisation to achieve the objectives.

What is amazing is that 40 years ago, Schumacher quoted Chairman Mao for the best formulation of the necessary interplay between theory and practice: “Go to the practical people, learn from them; then synthesise their experience into principles and theories; and then return to the practical people and call upon them to put these principles and methods into practice so as to solve their problems and achieve freedom and happiness.”

All these sound very simple, but are actually quite hard to practice. Schumacher has certainly convinced me that there are good alternatives to current conventional economic thinking.

Tan Sri Andrew Sheng is President of the Fung Global Institute (as@andrewsheng.net)

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Friday, February 17, 2012

S’pore escaping recession?

Govt reiterates 1%-3% GDP forecast for 2012 after smaller contraction

SINGAPORE: Singapore says it may avoid a recession despite the weak global economic outlook, after data showed the economy contracted less than expected in the last quarter of 2011 despite persistent weakness in electronics.

“The first month of trade numbers, export numbers are quite good,” Thia Jang Ping, a director at the Ministry of Trade and Industry, told a news conference.

“It's still too early to call, but our near-term indicators do not suggest an imminent danger of Singapore slipping very badly into a recession in the first quarter,” he added.

The economy shrank 2.5% in the fourth quarter from the preceding period on an annualised and seasonally adjusted basis, data showed yesterday.

Slowdown: Singapore’s port is seen through the downtown business district. The island nation says its trade and non-oil domestic exports are expected to grow by 3% to 5% this year, down from a rise of 8% and 2.2%, respectively, in 2011. — AP
 
The GDP data was better than an advance flash estimate of a 2.9% contraction, but worse than the median estimate for a 2.3 % decline by economists polled by Reuters.



From a year earlier, gross domestic product grew 3.6%. Singapore stocks and currency weakened yesterday although that was in line with the regional trend, with sentiment hit by a another delay in cementing a bailout package for Greece.

Singapore expects its economy to grow by 1% to 3% in 2012, down from last year's revised expansion of 4.9%, although it warned of risks to the forecast.

Asia is suffering the effects of slowing demand in the West, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last month warned that Europe's debt crisis could tip the world economy into recession.

A recession is often defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction, and Singapore, whose trade is three times GDP, tends to feel the chills from a deterioration in global economic conditions faster than most countries.

“Specifically, a disorderly sovereign default in the eurozone could precipitate a global financial crisis, while an escalation of geopolitical tension in the Middle East could trigger a global oil price shock,” Singapore's trade ministry said in a statement.

On Wednesday, South Korea said January exports fell 7% from a year ago in the biggest annual decline since October 2009, while Australia said its leading index of employment dropped in February in a sign that jobs growth could fall.

Singapore also said yesterday its trade and non-oil domestic exports were expected to grow by 3% to 5 % this year, down from a rise of 8% and 2.2%, respectively, in 2011. - Reuters

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Malaysia's GDP Growth 5.1% in 2011, pretty okay?

Malaysia's growth beats consensus

By FINTAN NG fintan@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.2% in the fourth quarter of 2011 despite the challenging external environment as domestic demand continued to support growth.

Bank Negara said in a press statement that full-year growth came in at 5.1% after expanding 7.2% in 2010 as domestic demand conditions remained favourable supported by both private and public sector spending.

The fourth-quarter GDP figures came in slightly higher than the 4.8% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey while the full-year growth was largely in line with a separate survey, where the median estimate was 5% and in line with official estimates of 5% to 5.5% growth.

Domestic demand expanded by 10.5% during the quarter, driven by the continued expansion in household and business spending, and public sector expenditure,” the central bank said.

Private comsumption increased by 7.1% supported by favourable income growth while public consumption rose by 23.6% following higher expenditure on emoluments and supplies and services.

Gross fixed capital formation, which measures the net increase of fixed or physical assets, increased by 8.5% supported by continued expansion in capital spending by the private sector and the non-financial public enterprises.

“The federal government development expenditure during the quarter was mostly channelled into the transportation, trade and industry sectors,” the central bank said.

The services sector grew by 6.4% for the quarter (6.8% for the year), manufacturing expanded by 5.2% (4.5%), construction rose 6.4% (3.5%), agriculture expanded by 6.9% (5.6%) while the mining sector's pace of decline narrowed compared to the third quarter, falling by 3.3% and declining 5.7% for the year.

The headline inflation rate, as measured by the annual change in the consumer price index, declined to 3.2% in the fourth quarter with inflation in the transport category ower at 3.2% reflecting the absence of further adjustments on prices of RON95 petrol, diesel and LPG in the quarter.



“Inflation in the food and non-alcoholic beverages category, however, rose to 5.3% during the quarter, mainly due to higher prices in the fish and seafood subcategory,” Bank Negara said.

Economists said the latest data confirmed earlier reports of the country's growth being on a slower trend largely due to the drop in external demand as global growth slowed.

They said this trend would continue into the first half of this year before recovering gradually in the second half as conditions globally improved with more clarity on the issues surrounding the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.

CIMB Investment Bank Bhd economic research head Lee Heng Guie told StarBiz that the main drag to growth in the fourth quarter and the whole year was the volatile external environment which resulted in stagnant demand for consumer electronics.

He said domestic demand would continue to sustain the economy although there was “a slight let-up” in consumer spending. “The question is how sustainable is consumption going to be and this will depend on key drivers such as commodity prices and income,” Lee said, noting that the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research consumer sentiments index was trending down.

“In summary, we see quite uneven growth in the first half of this year before the economy picks up in the second half,” he said, expecting full-year GDP to come in at 3.8%.

AmResearch Sdn Bhd director of economic research Manokaran Mottain said the latest data showed that the “fear factor” was rising with households becoming more cautious about spending.

However, he was more sanguine compared to his peers where exports were concerned, pointing to the export growth in goods and services (where the current account suplus, although narrowing in the fourth quarter, stood at RM22bil for the year) but said the data showed the economy was geared to domestic activity with government handouts playing a crucial role in supporting consumption.

“Going forward, well-crafted domestic strategies and the timely rollout of the Economic Transformation Programme projects will now be more urgent as they will create multiplier effects especially in the services sector,” Manokaran said.

He added that the data clearly showed that the economy, while experiencing moderating growth, was not “falling off the cliff” with full-year growth in 2012 coming in at 5%. “The worst-case scenario is global growth dropping to below 3% and project implementation delays at home, which means growth of around 4%,” Manokaran said.

Meanwhile Affin Investment Bank Bhd chief economist Alan Tan said growth this year would still be affected despite signs of nascent recovery in the United States and the improvement in global purchasing managers' indices.

“For this year, the first half will still show signs of moderation in exports as consumer electronics demand slows down,” he said, adding that growth for the full year would still be a healthy 4% considering the challenges.

For Bank Negara statements click here

Malaysia should do pretty okay

Making a Point - By Jagdev Singh Sidhu


THE report card for the economy in 2011 is out and by all accounts, Malaysia did pretty okay.

With the official forecast of growth at between 5% to 5.5%, there was much scepticism throughout 2011 whether that could be achieved. Who can blame the tea-leave readers out there whose job is to forecast where the economy is heading?

There was so much external fear with Europe on the brink, America seeing greater economic trouble and China teetering on a bubble bursting that expectations were slashed, and on average far less than what the Government had predicted.

As it turns out, maybe after the gravity-defying performance in the third quarter where the gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.8%, people began to say “hold on. Maybe things aren't so bleak.”

As it turns out, they were mostly right when the GDP data was released yesterday.

The economy expanded by 5.2% in the fourth quarter and for the whole year, growth was 5.1%. There are numbers where things could be better. Industrial production and export growth isn't the best.

 

But what drove the economy upwards was domestic demand, basically what the Government, people and companies spend and invest.

Domestic demand jumped 10.5% in the fourth quarter compared with 9% in the third. Capital investments surged 8.5% compared with 6.1% in the previous quarter and higher investments will mean more production, jobs and better economic strength.

The troubles of Europe might have lost its fear factor and America appears to be repairing itself steadily. There are reasons to be more optimistic but the official tune has turned, surprisingly, a little sour.

Bank Negara in its statement said; “Growth prospects, however, have become increasingly uncertain with the emergence of greater downside risks.”

The warning calls for more caution but there is still enough policy measures to keep domestic demand intact.


There are policies of putting cash in the hands of the people through direct cash handouts. There is a base effect from the consumption boom to worry about and whether that can continue into 2012.

But there are indicators out there to suggest domestic demand might still do well but maybe not at the same breakneck speed.

First, there is the stock market. Yes, people might say its not a perfect barometer of what an economy is doing but it does show there is confidence in how corporate Malaysia might be performing.

With direct investments abroad by Malaysian companies jumping to RM14.4bil in the third quarter from RM12.9bil previously, it shows Malaysian companies are taking advantage of growth opportunities outside Malaysia. That can point to higher profits and maybe salaries in the future.

The other is property. We might have been cautious last year about property prices falling off the cliff at some point in 2012 but there is no indication that might happen. Prices might soften but if we were to see our neighbours down south, it might not freeze the market.

For January, Singapore registered the highest sales of private homes in the past 14 months, despite increasing clamps on foreigners buying homes there.

With jobs steady and likely to increase with more investments being made, the stock market doing alright and property prices holding firm, these are ingredients that will allow people to continue spending.

If the Private Sector Retirement Age Bill gets passed, that should create more consumption by people whose earnings lifespan will increase by a further five years. The mass rapid transit system which is kicking off will also boost construction and the GDP.

Economists do wonder if the growth forecast of 5% to 6% for 2012 will be maintained given the risks and challenges. There might be a revision downwards in March but whatever the case, Malaysia like last year, should do pretty okay.

Deputy news editor Jagdev Singh Sidhu is lapping up the Linsanity! Jeremy Lin's play for the New York Knicks has been a fantastic story. Hope that continues until he meets the Detroit Pistons. 

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Aspiring nations gain more from Internet



 

Manuel: "Malaysia derives a lot of income from exporting equipment that 
allows people to connect to and use the Internet." 
 
KUALA LUMPUR: Aspiring countries like Malaysia are gaining more from the Internet than developed nations.

The Web helps these countries improve gross domestic product (GDP), better their small and medium enterprises, and boost the creation of new jobs.

Going online helped Malaysian industries contribute 4.1% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010, making Malaysia one of the 30 fastest growing countries in the world.

Some of the other aspiring countries are Argentina, Hungary, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, Taiwan, Turkey and Vietnam.

They were part of an online study - titled Online and Upcoming: The Internet's Impact on Aspiring Countries - by researchers McKinsey & Co.

McKinsey defines aspiring countries as those that are developing but are at the cusp of becoming a developed nation.



The study found that the Internet contributed US$9.75bil (RM29.7bil) out of a total GDP of US$238bil (RM723bil) for the aspiring countries in 2010. This is far more than what was contributed in the United States and China.

Nimal Manuel, principal at McKinsey, said a big chunk of the GDP contribution in Malaysia came from the IT industry.

"Malaysia derives a lot of income from exporting equipment that allows people to connect to and use the Internet," he said.

"The country will also see significant growth in the value that domestic activity on the Internet delivers to the nation."

Manuel was giving a briefing on the economic impact of the Internet on Malaysia.

Booster

Besides contributing positively to the country's economy, the Internet also helped its small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to make gains.

Manuel said the SMEs in Malaysia and the other aspiring countries that took their businesses online gained over 6% more in revenue than those with only brick-and-mortar stores.

"Thanks to the Internet, these businesses were able to reach new customers in different geographic locations. They also enjoyed a 10% increase in productivity (after embracing technology)," he said.

According to him, this increase in productivity (due to better efficiencies) does not mean decreased job opportunities in the aspiring countries.

"Our study found that for every job lost, 3.2 new jobs were created because of the Internet. And in comparison, for every job lost in developed countries, only 1.6 new ones were created," he said.

These aspiring countries must not rest on their laurels; they should be making an effort to improve their Internet ecosystems.

Manuel said they need to ensure a high quality and secure infrastructure to better capture the value of the Internet.

The governments need secure servers, in addition to basic infrastructure, such as electricity supply, as well as quality fixed and mobile Internet services, he said.

In response to the recommendations, Datuk Mohamed Sharil Tarmizi, chairman of the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC), said the Government is championing the quality of Internet services in Malaysia.

"This is an entry-point project under the Economic Transformation Plan, and that shows how serious the Government is on broadband services and issues," he added.

MCMC is the communications and multimedia industry regulator.