Here is the Dragon, the best to come?

The Dragon is here and the best is yet to come

BRICKS AND MORTAR By TEH LIP KIM

COME midnight tomorrow, as we usher in the Year of the Dragon, most of us will not help but stop to wonder what the next 12 “moons” of the lunar calendar have in store for us.



The Dragon the fifth and incidentally the only mythical animal of the 12 animal signs in the Chinese zodiac is a symbol of power and good fortune.

Those born under this sign are considered to be dynamic, flamboyant, colourful and vibrant. People born under the sign of the Dragon include historical figures Joan of Arc and Martin Luther King Jr, author Pearl S. Buck and artiste John Lennon.

This year is the year of the Water Dragon and astrologers believe will be a year of many opportunities for growth and expansion.

But astrology aside, what exactly can we expect in the year ahead for the property sector? If one is to listen to the rumblings on the ground, it sounds like it's a mixed bag up ahead.

Built quality: A worker inspects a dragon lantern decoration made from recycled materials and energy-saving LED lights at a temple in Jenjarom, Selangor. The Chinese year of the Dragon ushers mixed feelings about the property sector but with the right design concept like this environment-conscious dragon lantern, homebuyers will still make that commitment. -AFP

For many in the business from those who are building and selling or just analysing its investment climate there still is room for growth in the Malaysian property market, at least in the next few years.

Initiatives by the government, such as the proposed high-speed rail link from Kuala Lumpur to Johor Baru and the MRT project, are expected to give the property sector a boost.

Areas that currently are not nearly as easily accessible will soon be easily reached by rail or MRT, and this will certainly be a boost for the value of property in these areas.

Take a look at the route for the first phase of the MRT between Sungai Buluh and Kajang and you will see that major residential centres will soon be linked by rail to popular commercial and entertainment centres.

Of course the finer details such as where all the stations will eventually be located are still being worked out.



On the other hand, some players in the property market are painting a rather gloomier picture, citing conditions in Europe and the United States as reasons for caution. The European debt crisis does not seem any closer to resolution and, some analysts fear, export driven economies such as China, Brazil and Malaysia, are not likely to come off the turmoil unscathed.

Across the Atlantic, the US economy is, as some economists there put it, “still messed-up”. In Japan, hit by the mega earthquake and tsunami of 2011, the economy is still experiencing long-term problems that are considered even worse than that in the United States.

Back home, some players in the property market are expecting a more moderate growth in 2012. In some areas, there may even be a price correction, going by what these people are saying.

According to them, commercial properties as well as high-end residential units are likely to be most susceptible to a market downturn. These are the first to be hit when confidence in the market ebbs.

Nevertheless, there is a bright spot of sorts in the midst of this gloomy outlook. A bubble is unlikely in the Malaysian property market.

So what do we think? Do we see a boom or bust, or something in between? Predicting what will come is a game of chance. Who really knows what the future holds for us anyway?

On the other hand, we can always analyse our own experience in the preceding 12 months to find hope in the corresponding period ahead.

As we have seen, Malaysian property prices are still among the lowest in the Southeast Asian region. As I wrote in this column sometime last year, Kuala Lumpur is only the sixth most expensive city in this region to invest in property, behind Singapore, Phnom Penh, Bangkok, Jakarta and Manila.

That means there still is room for upward price movement. Of course other factors will come into play. As most property investors will tell you, location is a prime consideration.

Areas that are well served by public transportation facilities will certainly be preferred over those that are not and, logically, will command higher demand and thus fetch higher prices.

Entry price is, of course, another factor. Take a look around you and you will see that many new launches, even in the Klang Valley, have remained unsold. These mostly luxury homes have unfortunately been priced way above most investors' affordability.

At RM3mil to RM4mil a unit, even for landed property, landing a buyer is a tall order.

Of course this does not mean that million-ringgit homes are no longer in demand. Our experience shows that anything priced between RM1mil and RM1.75mil, and in the right location can still find buyers.

At that price, such properties still meet the needs of those who purchase with the intention to occupy as well as those who hope to see their property appreciate in value. At the same time, the repayment amount is still within the means of a fair number of Malaysians, especially those in their 30s or 40s and who are already fairly established in their careers.

For instance if a couple were to purchase a home at RM1.75mil, they are likely to be able to get a loan of up to 80% of the cost of the property or about RM1.4mil.

At an interest rate of 4.35% (BLR-2.25%) for a repayment period of 20 years, their monthly repayment amounts to RM8,744 a sum that a fair number of working couples can afford.

The right designs and concepts also add to the value of such properties. Many property purchasers today do not have the time and some not even the inclination to fuss over how to spruce up an apartment before moving in.

To meet their needs, developers also provide many fixtures and appliances so one can move in with just clothes and perhaps a new bed.

Overall, I think there still is room for growth in the Malaysian property sector. There will certainly be many more new launches whatever the doomsayers say. At the right price, in the right location and with the right design concept, homebuyers will still make that commitment.

Our economy is expected to grow about 5% or more and unemployment is at a low 3%. The outlook remains positive, as reflected in the stock market.

So if you are still looking to invest in property, the Year of the Dragon may be as good as any year to make that commitment. Remember, it is supposed to be a year when there will be many opportunities for growth and expansion.

Teh Lip Kim is the MD of SDB Properties Sdn Bhd, a lifestyle property company. Bouquets and brickbats are welcomed. Send by email to md@sdb.com.my

Dragon year roars !

May this Water Dragon roar?

WHY NOT? By WONG SAI WAN

Much is pinned on 2012, and as we enter the Year of the Dragon, let it also turn out to be a watershed.



THE dragon is both feared and revered not only by the Chinese but also by almost every ancient civilisation. Fables tell of the wisdom and beauty, as well as the evil and tyranny, of the majestic mythical beast.

The Europeans – whether the Anglo-Saxons of middle Europe or the Vikings of the North – have their favourite tales of the dragon.

The English-educated among us will remember the fable of St George, who rescued a fair maiden from being sacrificed to a mean and ferocious fire-breathing beast.

The Vikings believed that the dragons fought with their gods, and very often won such battles. The ancient Scandinavians hero-worshipped these creatures, and even named and designed famed war boats after them.

The ancient Greeks and Egyptians shared the Vikings’ belief that the dragons fought constantly with the gods, and their battles were responsible for earthquakes, floods and all sorts of disasters that we blame today on nature.

 

Festive colours: Workers decorating a dragon-shaped sculpture in preparation for a dragon dance for the upcoming Chinese New Year in Wenzhou, Zhejiang province, China. — Reuters

Basically, in the ancient west, dragons were always portrayed as baddies, if not evil itself. Even these days, Hollywood movies would, more often than not, portray the mythical flying and fire-breathing beast as a destructive force.

However, in the east, the dragons were the good guys – often seen as divine beings or blessings from the gods. Regardless of the myth being of Chinese, Vietnamese, Japanese, Bhutanese or Korean origin (all these cultures share the same lunar calendar), the dragon is always a symbol of wisdom, wealth and power.



To the ancient Chinese, not all dragons are created equal because, historically, the winged serpent was the symbol of the Emperor of China. In the Zhou Dynasty, the five-clawed dragon symbolised the Son of Heaven (Emperor), the four-clawed the nobles and the three-clawed the ministers.

This changed in the later Qin Dynasty. The five-clawed dragon became exclusive to the Emperor. Everyone else was free to use the various other claw combinations.

{China hasn't issued a stamp with this ferocious a dragon since 1878 (Photo Xinhua)} >>

On Monday, January 23^rd-2012 the new moon in Aquarius heralds in the Chinese New Year. The year of the Water Dragon begins and the year of the Metal Rabbit ends.

Even in Malaysia, we have our own dragon legends, with the one supposedly in Tasik Chini being the most famous. The Chini Naga fought off the Sri Kemboja Naga, forcing it to flee north to where Cambodia is today.

Many people living in Tasik Chini still talk about the monster that lives in the lake which at one stage was drying up due to logging at its tributary rivers. However, the lake is now flourishing again and is a popular local tourist spot, especially for anglers.

The animal sign for this lunar year is the dragon whose element is water. The last Year of the Water Dragon was between Jan 27, 1952 and Feb 13, 1953.

Yes, just like 12 years ago when the dragon last visited us, there will be a rush “to make dragon babies” because people born under this sign are deemed to be very lucky in life.

Among famous dragon personalities are actors Christopher Reeves, Patrick Swayze, David Hasselhoff and Liam Neeson, and author Amy Tan.

In Malaysia, among those born 60 years ago – and thus also water dragons – are PKR president Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, tycoon and Berjaya boss Tan Sri Vincent Tan, and Finance Minister II Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Mohamad Hanadzlah.

A water dragon may sound harmless enough but that depends on which astrologer, feng shui master or seer one speaks to.

Some see it as the most thinking of all dragons because the person born under this sign is serene, calm and unhurried – just like water. He or she is also very persuasive and can wear down anyone with charm and diplomacy.

However, other readers of the stars call the water dragon the tsunami dragon because water is the only element that can destroy the other four elements – wood, fire, metal and earth.

They expect those born this year to be able to sweep away all those standing in their way, just like a tsunami.

Personally, I hope that the 2012 dragon will bring about definite decisions to the many questions that have been thrown up in the past few years.

For one thing, I hope that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak will call a general election soon and that Malaysians respond by making a firm decision on what they want.

Another thing that needs thorough cleaning is the world’s economy. There has been so much uncertainty in the world’s economy because there doesn’t seem to be an end to financial crashes – first in the United States, then in Europe.

Ratings by rating houses are supposed to indicate for sure what the value of various financial instruments is. Instead, these rating houses’ downgrading of various European Union states’ credit ratings as well as the rescue package has only caused further uncertainty.

Rating houses, just like hedge funds, need to be fried by the dragon.

Hopefully, the Dragon Year will bring about a total collapse of the world’s economic system so that we can replace it with one that actually works. It’s time to wipe the slate clean.

It is time for the water dragon to roar and show its colours.

Executive editor Wong Sai Wan wishes everyone Gong Xi Fa Cai, and may the dragon year be a blessed one.

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You addicted to Facebook ?

Hooked on Facebook

By P. ARUNA aruna@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: If you prefer to interact on Facebook rather than have a normal conversation, you could be suffering from a psychological disorder, an expert warned.

Gleneagles Hospital Kuala Lumpur neuro-psychologist Dr Nivashinie Mohan said that Facebook Addiction Disorder (FAD) continues to go undetected because most addicts do not realise or want to admit that they have a problem.

With Malaysians spending more hours and having the most number of friends on Facebook, many had become addicted to it, she said.



“A lot of people do not see it as a real problem because they don't think it is as harmful as addiction to tobacco or drugs.

“But it is a problem that needs to be treated like any other addiction that prevents you from going on with your daily activities,” she said, adding that the disorder could cause anxiety and depression.

The disorder term FAD was coined by American psychologists to describe the addiction to Facebook.

Dr Nivashinie said that Facebook addicts had difficulty carrying on a normal conversation with people as they preferred to “poke”, “like” or comment on what their friends posted on the website.

She said the addicts felt the need to be connected to their Facebook friends all the time.

“They fear that they may miss out on something important if they don't constantly check the website,” she added.

On average, Dr Nivashinie said people spent about an hour each day on the website.

“But if you are cancelling plans with friends and family so you can spend the time on Facebook, it is a clear sign that you are addicted,” she said.

She added that addicts usually lost interest in school or were not productive at work because they were constantly on the website.

Stressing that the problem could be very serious, she said: “Sometimes these addicts don't even enjoy logging on to Facebook. They just feel they have to.

“Some people even break into cold sweat at the thought of not going on Facebook for a day or two. And they feel depressed when nobody communicates with them or responds to something they posted on the website.”

To overcome the disorder, she said addicts must first acknowledge that they have a problem.

“It may not be possible for them to quit Facebook immediately or completely,” Dr Nivashinie said. “They can begin by reducing and limiting the hours they spend on the website daily.”



Disconnected from real life

By WONG PEK MEI pekmei@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Social networking can be addictive and stunt personal interaction, say experts.

People frequent websites like Facebook due to easy access via mobile devices, but “such convenience is distracting people from having real social interaction with another human being”, said psychologist and counsellor Adnan Omar.

“For example, a couple missed an opportunity to have true interaction with each other by going out for dinner, only to be surfing the Net or checking e-mail on their mobile devices,” he told The Star recently.

It was reported on Jan 10 that a nationwide study showed that Malaysian mobile web users on average spend 20% of their time on social media like Facebook and Twitter, 18% on music or videos, 17% on playing games, 14% on searches for general information and 13% on e-mail.

Clueless condition: Many Malaysians may not be aware that they have Facebook Addiction Disorder.

 

Adnan was concerned that society might lose its ability to connect with the people within.
“We may know people in Russia but we do not know our own neighbours although they are just one wall away,” he said.

“If you're spending more than 25 hours per week social networking for other than work or academic reasons, you're addicted to it. It does not help that the Internet is readily available and you don't have to turn it off.”

Adnan said addicts had the urge to check their phone constantly and felt “empty deep inside” if they did not do so.

“When people post their pictures and updates, they are waiting for compliments to make them feel fulfilled. The other reason is that they need to kill time and would feel useless or uncomfortable if they do not do anything.

“Technology creates activities but not necessarily productivity although it makes us feel that way,” Adnan said.

Psychologist Dr Goh Chee Leong said the phone has become an important companion for “in between” times like when a person is waiting for someone.

The dean of HELP University College's Behavioural Sciences Faculty said people who often network generally have an active social life although “there are extreme cases”.

Facebook takes over mind and body

PETALING JAYA: Facebook addict Lim said her life now revolves around the social networking website.

Lim, who is in her 50s, admitted to a psychologist that she no longer had normal conversations with her family as most of her free time was spent in front of the computer.

She said she was addicted to Facebook games “Farmville” and “Baking Life” and would plan her daily activities around the website.

Lim said she would start her virtual “crop planting” or “baking” in the morning before work to make sure that it was completed in time for her to resume the game during lunch break.

“I have not had a good night's sleep in a long time as I can't log off until the wee hours of the morning,” she said.

Another addict, who wanted to be known only as Satish, said he logged on to Facebook every half hour.
“If I can't go on Facebook for some reason, I feel uneasy and can't concentrate on my work,” said the 30-year-old engineer.

His addiction became worse after he bought a smartphone.

Bosses face problem with workers wasting time on FB

PETALING JAYA: Employers are increasingly faced with the problem of employees wasting their time on Facebook and other social networking websites during office hours.

“Many companies have blocked their employees from accessing Facebook in the office, but this measure is not always effective as many of them can still access the website on their smartphones,” said Malaysian Employers Federation executive director Shamsuddin Bardan.

Although most employers wanted to stop employees from chatting or playing games online, he noted that companies in fields such as entertainment and media needed to access the social websites to keep up with the latest trends and news.

How the problem of time-wasting on websites was handled depended on “the nature of business” of the companies concerned, said Shamsuddin.

He added that young people might not be interested in working for companies which were too strict and did not allow them to log on to Facebook.

MCA Public Services and Complaints Department head Datuk Michael Chong said that Facebook users were “inviting trouble” if they constantly updated their status with information on their whereabouts and what they were doing.

“There are young girls who even update their status to say that they are going to take a bath,” he said.

He added that 14 female Facebook users had reported to the department that they were cheated and blackmailed last year.

World Bank warning of another global recession; Mier: Worse to come!

Image via Wikipedia

(Shanghai Daily)
 

THE World Bank is warning developing countries to prepare for the "real" risk that an escalation in the eurozone debt crisis could tip the world into a slump on a par with the global downturn in 2008/09.

In a report sharply cutting its world economic growth expectations, the World Bank said Europe was probably already in recession. If the debt crisis deepened, global economic forecasts would be significantly lower.

"The sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone appears to be contained," Justin Lin, chief economist for the World Bank, said in Beijing yesterday. "However, the risk of a global freezing-up of the markets as well as a global crisis similar to what happened in September 2008 is real."

The World Bank predicted world economic growth of 2.5 percent in 2012 and 3.1 percent in 2013, well below the 3.6 percent growth for each year projected in June.



"We think it is now important to think through not only slower growth but sharp deteriorations, as a prudent measure," said Hans Timmer, the bank's director of development prospects.

The report said if the eurozone debt crisis escalates, global growth would be about 4 percentage points lower. It forecast that high-income economies would expand just 1.4 percent in 2012 as the eurozone shrinks 0.3 percent, sharp revisions from growth forecasts last June of 2.7 percent and 1.8 percent respectively.

It cut its forecast for growth in developing economies to 5.4 percent for 2012 from its previous forecast of 6.2 percent.

It saw a slight pick up in growth in developing economies in 2013 to 6 percent. But the report said threats to growth were rising.

It cited failure so far to resolve high debts and deficits in Japan and the United States and slow growth in other high-income countries.

On top of that, political tensions in the Middle East and North Africa could disrupt oil supplies and add another blow to global prospects.

China's growth - forecast in the report at 8.4 percent - could help bolster imports and gives it "big fiscal space" to respond to changing conditions, Lin said.

But the World Bank report added: "No country and no region will escape the consequences of a serious downturn." 

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Mier: Worse to come

By LEONG HUNG YEE  hungyee@thestar.com.my

Eurozone crisis, slower China growth likely to hurt economy

KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) expects gross domestic product (GDP) for 2011 to be 4.9% but to decelerate to 3.7% in 2012.

MIER executive director Dr Za-kariah Abdul Rashid said this year would not be as bad as 2008 or 2009 but might not be as good as 2011, pulled down by the eurozone crisis as well as slower growth in China's economy.

He said if the eurozone crisis turned worse, the country's economy might be affected and the GDP could reach the 2008/2009 level.

“There's some avenue if the Government wants to spur the economy by spending on development. It will depend on the private sector whether our economy turns out to be strong this year,” Zakariah said at a briefing to present Malaysia's economic outlook.

Zakariah: ‘The private sector has done a lot for the economy.’

“However, the private sector has done a lot for the economy. We can't expect much more from the private sector.”

He said MIER had previously forecast 2011 GDP growth to be 4.6% but revised it upwards after looking at the latest numbers and the crisis in the eurozone.

“Growth in the last quarter of 2011 is expected to be much lower on account of external developments. The latest monthly economic indicators are already suggesting that,” MIER said in a report.

It added that economic growth would likely get “bumpier” in the months ahead.

Meanwhile, Zakariah said that there was “room for 25 to 50 basis-point downward revision” in the overnight policy rate (OPR). However, he said the revision would depend on the situation and had to be done vigilantly.

Based on MIER's Business Conditions Index (BCI), the business sentiment had worsened from the second quarter of last year. The BCI fell to 96.6 in the fourth quarter of 2011, the first time it had dipped below the 100 threshold since the fourth quarter of 2010.

“It usually shows a contraction mode when the index sinks below 100. The BCI had been dropping since the second quarter of 2011,” Zakariah said.

Sales, local and foreign orders, as well as capacity utilisation were significantly lower in the fourth quarter of 2011, with companies expecting to scale back production over the next three months as inventory builds up.

Concurrently, consumer sentiment also fell to a two-year low of 106.3 on the Consumer Sentiments Index as household incomes lost momentum, and finances and job became a growing concern.

Zakariah said the index pointed out that consumers were also holding on to purchasing big tickets items as spending plans took a backseat.

Separately, Zakariah said it would be better for the Government to call for general elections early as uncertainty over the nation's political future would hurt the economy.

He said private investors were currently holding back investments on concerns that government policies could change due to the political climate here.

“If you ask me as an economist, I would rather see the problem solved once and for all. The earlier they settle the political matters, the better, we can focus on the economy.

“Right now everything is still hanging. People are postponing because of the elections. So if they settle it once and for all and immediately, it would be better,” Zakariah said.  

Ethics – an asset to justice

Image via Wikipedia

Getting judges to publicly declare their assets is a significant step towards improving the integrity of our judiciary and changing the perception of the bench.

DARE to declare! That seems to be the slogan of the moment, in the wake of the move by Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng and his state executive council to declare their assets publicly last week.

Based on the list of properties, investments and cars along with the loans taken, Penang is being run by a motley crew of wealthy and not-so-rich politicians.

Lim owns two shop lots in Malacca, worth RM435,000 and RM530,000 respectively and has taken RM650,000 in loans to pay for them.

He has RM298,785 in fixed deposits, with more than RM53,000 in earned interests besides investments in Amanah Mutual Bhd and Public Mutual Fund.

But there were no clues about the assets of the spouses and relatives, though. When asked about this, the CM was reported to have replied that the pledge was only for the assets of its leaders to be disclosed.

In the case of Selangor, the declaration of assets by the Mentri Besar and exco members in 2009 was basically in the form of their current earnings in salaries and allowances.

They decided not to include assets owned before the exco members held office, on the grounds of not being able to assure security for them or their family members.

Excos disclosed their assets privately to the MB’s office. The information, however, can be released for legitimate reasons, subject to conditions set and approved by the Special Select Committee on Competence, Accountability and Transparency or Selcat.

For political parties, Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) holds the record for being the first to deliver the promise of declaring the assets of its elected and appointed representatives.

Since 2008, it has made public statutory declarations about what they own.

PSM’s sole MP, Michael Jeyakumar Devaraj – who unseated MIC supremo Datuk S. Samy Vellu in Sungei Siput – has been quoted as saying: “Once you become an assemblyman or MP, you must reveal the assets of yourself, your wife and your immediate family every year.”



An increasing number of countries have adopted similar ethics and even have anti-corruption laws requiring public officials to declare their assets and income, in addition to that of their spouses and dependant children.

In the US, for instance, the main law governing this is the Ethics in Government Act of 1978.

Based on last year’s declaration, President Barack Obama has assets worth at least US$4mil (RM12.48mil).

The amount includes book royalties, retirement funds, US Treasury bills and notes and other holdings.

In Malaysia, would all elected representatives from both sides of the political divide agree to be subject to such scrutiny?

As it is, many of our YBs are seen to be extremely well-heeled. They always claim to champion the cause of the rakyat but live in mansions worth millions and lead luxurious lifestyles.

Of course, they can always declare that they were already rich before being elected or appointed.

So, instead of waiting until they are elected, why not make it mandatory for all nominated candidates for Parliament and state seats to disclose their wealth and means of income and those of their immediate family?

Perhaps one way to ensure this is through compulsion – by an Act of Parliament.

One wonders if there would still be many people clamouring to be elected representatives or appointed representatives under such rules.

But we are at least making progress when it comes to the judiciary.

Chief Justice Tan Sri Arifin Zakaria has made a laudable move towards getting judges to declare their assets.

It is indeed a significant step towards improving transparency and integrity of our judiciary and changing the current public perception of the bench.

“I’m sure all of you have nothing to fear, so we have to work together with the MACC on this matter,” the CJ said at the judges’ conference last week.

The MACC has since set up a task force to identify the process under the civil service for the implementation.

The CJ has also told judges to maintain the independence of the judiciary and not to put up with any interference, including from their spouses, when making their decisions.

According to Transparency International’s Bribe Payers Index of 2008, the judiciary was perceived by surveyed business executives to be one of the most corrupt institutions in the country.

Business executives surveyed by the World Economic Forum Global competitiveness Report 2010-2011 identified the judicial system as being under enough influence of members of government, certain individuals and companies to constitute a competitive disadvantage.

They also found the efficiency of the legal framework for private companies to settle disputes and challenge government actions and/or regulations as another disadvantage.

The CJ’s move to boost the integrity of the judiciary is noteworthy in view of such negative perceptions.

The country cannot afford to have a judiciary perceived to be ethically compromised. It would be a millstone around the neck of any anti-corruption strategy.

As such, it needs the full support and cooperation of the people, members of the Bar, the Attorney-General’s Chambers and more so from the political leaders.

> Associate Editor M. Veera Pandiyan likes to share these wise words of Gandhi: “There is a higher court than courts of justice and that is the court of conscience. It supercedes all other courts.”