Fear-of-missing-out factor in property market

 

FOR those who are interested to know about the health of the residential property market, Bank Negara Malaysia’s article “Developments in the Residential Property Market” (https://bit. ly/373eyeg) is a must-read.

The article, published in Bank Negara’s latest Financial Stability Review, states that house prices in Malaysia are seriously unaffordable at 4.7 times median house price to annual median income (median multiple). A house is considered affordable if the median multiple is 3.0 or below.

Why do Malaysians find houses seriously unaffordable? On the supply side, there is a mismatch due to market failure to provide enough affordable housing. On the demand side, housing affordability is limited by insufficient income and high indebtednes for some.

I think buyers’ buoyant sentiment or fear of missing out (FOMO) also contributes to the high median multiple or price-to-income ratio.

The most probable reason why investors buy houses is because they think the price will go up further. Yes, the current house prices are high and stagnating, but they reason that in the long term, prices will maintain their upward trend.

For investors, property investment can be even more lucrative compared to stocks because they can have a bigger leverage, which make their returns much higher if prices go up.

Also, they do not receive margin calls even if prices decline as long as they can service the monthly mortgage repayment.

For owner-occupiers, one of the reasons for buying houses at the current high prices is the fear that if they do not buy now, the price may go up later.

In the same article, Bank Negara pointed out that 57.3% of approved housing loans in the second half of 2021 were granted to owner-occupiers. Presumably, the other 42.7% of approved housing loans were granted to investors.

Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, United States, recently published a study titled “Real-time Market Monitoring Finds Signs of Brewing U.S. Housing Bubble” (https://bit.ly/36zs0jj).

Here is what they say: “But real house prices can diverge from market fundamentals when there is widespread belief that today’s robust price increases will continue.

“If many buyers share this belief, purchases arising from a ‘fear of missing out’ can drive up prices and heighten expectations of strong house price gains.

“This self-fulfilling mechanism leads to price growth that may become exponential (or explosive), resulting in the housing market becoming progressively misaligned from fundamentals until investors become cautious, policymakers intervene, the flow of money into housing dries up and a housing correction or even a bust occurs.”

The study listed the many consequences associated with explosive appreciation in real house prices. “Expectations-driven explosive appreciation (often called exuberance) in real house prices has many consequences, including the misallocation of economic resources, distorted investment patterns, individual bankruptcies and broad macroeconomic effects on growth and employment.”

I think an extreme example is Japan. For 30 years or so since 1950, house prices in Japan had only gone up.

Property prices rose by as much as six to seven times during the 1980s asset bubble as Japanese house buyers, whether investors or owner-occupiers, were all piling into real estate for fear of missing out based on the belief that prices could only go up.

Property prices in Japan continued to rise until the early 1990s and then started a drastic decline. Even some 30 years later, they have still not recovered.

In sum, should the FOMO sentiment be prevalent, prices will continue to be high relative to income or rent until the trend changes.

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Regaining momentum, property sector to recover despite challenges

  WITH the country finally transitioning into endemicity, the Malaysian property market is expected to regain its momentum this year. H...

Human rights development much broader in China than in the West

Harvard & Cambridge: China's Era Already? You Bet!

Danny Haiphong. Photo:Courtesy of Haiphong

Editor's Note:

For the Chinese people, the past decade was epic and inspirational. The country, under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, has made great endeavors in boosting its economy, deepening reforms, improving the rights of its people and acting as a responsible power globally.

To help understand China's progress in the past decade, the Global Times (GT) has launched a weekly series of interviews with scholars from home and abroad, presenting a holistic view of China's governance philosophy. The following is an interview with Danny Haiphong (Haiphong), an independent journalist in the US and co-editor of Friends of Socialist China as well as a founding member of the No Cold War international campaign, on how China has made human rights protection a priority and how it has taken human rights moral high grounds.

GT: The US Department of State issued the 2021 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices on April 12, of which 90 pages are used to criticize China's human rights conditions. At the same time, 2021 was considered to be the US' most fatal year in history with more than 460,000 Americans killed by the coronavirus last year. Why does the US care more about human rights of China and other countries than its own record?

Haiphong: The US has politicized human rights for several reasons, none of which have anything to do with genuine concerns about the wellbeing of people. Constant speculation about human rights elsewhere provides a distraction from the shortcomings of the US' own political and economic system. The US possesses an abhorrent human rights record. An average of three Americans per day are killed by US law enforcement. Nearly one million Americans have died of COVID-19. US wars abroad have taken the lives of millions and destabilized entire regions.

Human rights are also an integral component of US foreign policy. Any nation deemed a threat to US hegemony is condemned for human rights violations. Often, the allegations are unfounded. This is certainly the case in relation to China. The US has spread insidious lies about the so-called human rights violations in China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Hong Kong Special Administration Region (HKSAR) to justify sanctions and military encirclement. The US' politicization of human rights is not only hypocritical, but a true danger to humanity.

GT: Since the outbreak of the epidemic, China has prioritized the protection of people's lives, what kind of human rights views do you think this reflects?

Haiphong: China's approach to human rights is people-centered. People come first. China's dynamic zero-COVID strategy is a case in point. Human life is the top priority. This priority has mobilized the entire society in a successful war against COVID-19 which has kept the death toll very low.

This doesn't mean tradeoffs do not exist. The protection of human life amid a deadly pandemic means that uncertainty and hardship are inevitable. But it is the people-centered human rights approach which keeps China and its legitimate leadership, the Communist Party of China, forward on the path to becoming a modern socialist country by 2050.

GT: How do you see the influence the "coexistence with the virus" policy has had on the US and other Western countries? Western media are attacking and smearing China's zero-COVID strategy. Why do they suggest China should also "lie flat" in its fight against the epidemic?

Haiphong: The politicization of COVID-19 in the US and other Western countries has created a public opinion crisis. Not only have large numbers of people been misinformed about COVID-19, but many have been convinced that China is to blame for their disastrous conditions. The truth is that the US and its Western allies neglected their domestic and global obligations to properly address the pandemic in the interests of humanity. Now these same countries want to see China plunged into a crisis through the abandonment of its successful strategy to contain the pandemic.

The reasons for this are simple. For one, China abandoning the zero-COVID strategy would validate the endless smears that the US has leveled against it. Furthermore, the US views China's zero-COVID strategy as a threat to its hegemony. This may seem silly, but it does have a material basis to it. China's zero-COVID strategy offers hope that COVID-19 deaths and cases can be reduced without completely sacrificing economic growth. The US knows that should China abandon this path, all of its progress would be threatened. This best serves the US' narrow and selfish interests.

GT: Chinese President Xi Jinping has emphasized unswerving adherence to China's path of human rights development, saying living a happy life is the biggest human right for the people. Over the past years, many surveys conducted by Western institutions showed Chinese people's rising levels of satisfaction with the government's performance. What does this demonstrate? How do you comment on China's human rights views?

Haiphong: Widespread popular satisfaction with China's government is an indicator of legitimacy. China's socialist governance system serves the people. Human rights development is thus much broader in China than in the West. Economic freedom, or the freedom to a livelihood without poverty, hunger, homelessness and instability is a top priority.

China's socialist governance system has built a foundation of legitimacy with the people by serving their needs and giving them real reasons to believe that their lives will be better than prior generations.

China's own human rights views are driven by deep experience with other political systems. During the "century of humiliation," various political models were imported from the outside without success. This includes the colonial and feudal systems in the 19th century and the Western democratic model in the early 20th century. Only the socialist conception of human rights has been capable of bringing prosperity and a better life to the Chinese people.

One further note. Legitimacy and human rights development in China isn't a paternalistic affair. The interests of the people not only drive policy in China but the Chinese people possess numerous mechanisms to participate in the running of the country. This means that while China prioritizes economic human rights, political human rights play an important role in facilitating a balanced and harmonious society.

GT: The definition of human rights in the US and the West has become narrower and narrower. They place too much emphasis on political rights while ignore the most basic human rights to survival and development. Why don't the most basic human rights such as people's rights to health, survival and development get enough attention in the West?

Haiphong: The West has for centuries been driven by a model of development that places profit accumulation over the rights of the people. And it isn't just a benign profit that drives all development in the West, but capitalist profit which tends to concentrate wealth in the hands of a few private investors and monopolies. The anarchy of the market reigns supreme, and it is private monopoly capital which essentially dictates government policy. People's need for housing, gainful employment, and healthcare are viewed as profitable ventures in and of themselves. This means that their administration is built around exploitation rather than human development.

The US, for example, is the so-called richest country in the world yet has millions of people without healthcare, a place to live, or a job that can satisfy the basic needs of survival. Hundreds of thousands of people sleep on the street each night, and still more find themselves filing for bankruptcy due to medical debt. Students attending university carry with them the weight of more than a trillion in collective student loan debt to private loan servicers and banks. Political parties in Washington DC hold the view that these issues are incapable of being resolved but that private military and financial institutions should be subsidized in the hundreds of billions. The US political system doesn't just ignore the needs of the people, it proactively worsens the economic situation for the majority.

GT: What is the significance of China's human rights proposition for redefining human rights worldwide, especially for developing countries to explore their own path in human rights development and protecting people's fundamental rights?

Haiphong: China's position on human rights provides a model for countries with shared histories of Western-imposed colonialism and development. Sovereignty and respect for self-determination are prerequisites for these countries to choose their own development paths. Unfortunately, due to unilateral measures such as sanctions and unequal trade arrangements, the US and the West have prevented many countries the opportunity to exercise sovereignty in their development paths. This has caused great suffering and strife worldwide.

China's approach to human rights prioritizes sovereignty and the right to development, and these principles have been applied to the implementation of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Economic development serves everyone, not just rich investors inside or outside of China. Furthermore, China's economic growth has not been achieved through isolationism but rather robust cooperation with all countries on the basis of equality. Developing countries seeking to both exercise their sovereignty while also reaping the benefits of increased global connectivity can look to China as a model of how the rights of the people do not need to be sacrificed for economic growth and vice versa. 

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Senior citizens with high-risk comorbidities eligible for second booster shot

 

Khairy: Currently, the Comirnaty mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech) is the recommended vaccine for a second booster dose based on available scientific data. (Photo by Zahid Izzani Mohd Said/The Edge)

 KUALA LUMPUR (April 14): Senior citizens with high-risk comorbidities are eligible to receive a second Covid-19 booster shot four to six months after their first booster dose, Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin said on Thursday.

Khairy also said that severely immunocompromised individuals aged 12 and above may receive their first booster jab within 28 days of receiving the second Covid-19 vaccine.

"It is not mandatory but optional, and it will be made through appointments," he told a press conference.

Khairy said those aged 60 and above who are healthy and not at risk for comorbidities should discuss with their doctor whether a second booster vaccination would be recommended for them.

Meanwhile, senior citizens who have received a booster vaccination and have tested positive for Covid-19 can receive a second booster vaccination three months after their full recovery, he said.

The minister said Pfizer-BioNTech Comirnaty's vaccine is the recommended vaccine for a second booster dose based on scientific data available.

On the booster shot for teenagers, Khairy said: "We leave it to the parents to talk to medical practitioners to make a decision. There is no coercion."

The minister said the implementation of this latest recommendation will not affect the full vaccination status of high-risk individuals who do not receive a second booster dose. The Health Ministry is currently updating clinical guidelines detailing implementation, he said.

Khairy said the ministry has also received requests from individuals who want to travel abroad to receive a second booster dose to meet the travel requirements.

"For example, there are some countries in continental Europe that do not recognise Sinovac and Sinopharm vaccines as first and booster doses," he said.

"Therefore, people who want to go abroad can receive a second booster dose at least one month apart after the first booster dose to meet the requirements of going abroad," he said.

As of March 31, a total of 701 individuals had received digital certificates of exemption from vaccination for medical reasons.

These individuals will also automatically receive a booster vaccination exemption.

"Individuals who are not eligible for a booster vaccination for medical reasons, especially the primary Sinovac or Sinopharm recipients or senior citizens who have not yet received a digital vaccination exemption certificate will need to submit a new application.

"They must obtain confirmation from a medical practitioner and then submit an application to the nearest district health department," said Khairy.

Adam Aziz & S Kanagaraju

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Seniors open to second booster dose

PETALING JAYA: Feeling boosted by the protection offered by the vaccine, many Covid-19-conscious senior citizens say they are receptive to taking a fourth dose.

Leong King Soon, 62, and his wife Barbara Teoh, 60, have hypertension and diabetes respectively and with their comorbidities, they are among the senior citizens now eligible to get a fourth shot of the Covid-19 vaccine.

Leong, who took his first booster in December, said he and his wife have so far not contracted Covid-19.

“I have been in close contact with Covid-19 individuals many times as I work as an industrial machine repairman and go to many factories for my job but so far so good.

“Besides taking the standard operating procedure seriously such as wearing a face mask and frequently washing hands, I really think that the three doses of the Covid-19 vaccine I took have kept me protected until now.

“So when the time comes for the fourth dose, I will definitely go get it with my wife,” said Leong.

He added that Teoh, too, had been in close contact unwittingly with Covid-19-positive friends and relatives but she has also been safe so far.

“She only took her first booster last month as she was ill over the past few months and needed her doctor’s clearance,” added Leong.

On Thursday, Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin said senior citizens with comorbidities can get the fourth shot between four and six months after their first booster, while seniors without comorbidities can get a second booster provided they get approval from their doctor.

Seniors who have received their booster dose but have been infected with Covid-19 will be eligible for a fourth shot three months after they recover.

Leong had this to say: “Get the booster for your own protection and ignore all the negative stories that you hear. People don’t remember the positive stories but like to hang on to the negative ones.”

Trader Saifuddin Omar, 67, who has diabetes and hypertension, also believes that the Covid-19 vaccine he took has protected him from the virus.

“Recently, my daughter and her son, who live with me, got infected but they didn’t know until five days later. We all share the same bathroom and eat at the same table but my wife and I didn’t get infected.

“My daughter and grandson (aged eight) are fully vaccinated and only suffered mild symptoms,” he said.

Saifuddin recalled initially feeling scared last year about taking the vaccine after hearing stories about the side effects.

“But now I see that it does help, I feel encouraged to take the fourth dose of the vaccine and will do so soon,” said Saifuddin, adding that he and his wife had their first booster in January.

Retired teacher B. Parimala, 63, does not have any comorbidities and took her first booster last year.

While seniors without comorbidities can get a second booster with their doctor’s approval, Parimala said she would rather wait.

“I was a science teacher so I keep up to date with the latest news about the vaccine.

“I recently read that boosting too often and with the same type of vaccine could reduce one’s immunity, especially against new variants.

“So I’d rather wait than go for the second booster now,” she said.

Parimala, too, warned against adopting a lackadaisical attitude towards Covid-19.

“Long Covid is no joke. My former colleague has such bad scarring on her lungs that she gets winded just walking a short distance. We should all continue to keep ourselves protected,” she said. 

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Regaining momentum, property sector to recover despite challenges

 

WITH the country finally transitioning into endemicity, the Malaysian property market is expected to regain its momentum this year.

However, despite the better economic growth recovery projected for 2022, the National Property Information Centre (Napic) has cautioned that the environment still remains challenging.

“The health of the residential sector is paramount to the overall performance of the property market,” Napic says in its 2021 property market report.

“The transition to the endemic phase of Covid-19 starting April 1, 2022, will see the lifting of restrictions of business operating hours and the reopening of country borders, which is expected to further improve domestic economic activities and entail better prospects for the leisure sector,” it adds.

Napic emphasises that the transition phase is a much-needed boost for the local property market.

“This will translate into better occupancy of hotels apart from creating employment opportunities for the locals.

“Nevertheless, the environment will remain challenging for the retail and office sector as more new supply enters the market in the near future.”

As the industry normalises and adapts to the new norms of working from home and market digitalisation, Napic says the office and retail sectors may continue to face downward pressure in 2022.

“On the development front, major ongoing infrastructure projects are expected to spur economic activities and the property market in the long run.”

As the economy is set to be on the right trajectory, Napic says the property market’s performance is expected to be on a similar track.

Accommodative policies

“The accommodative policies, continuous government support and execution of all planned measures outlined in Budget 2022 and proper implementation of strategies and initiatives under the 12th Malaysia Plan are expected to support growth in the property sector,” it says.

According to Napic, the residential sub-sector led the overall property market activity in 2021 with a 66.2% contribution in volume.

There were 198,812 transactions worth Rm76.90bil recorded in the review period, which was an increase of 3.9% in volume and 16.7% in value year-on-year.

The improvement was supported by the uptrend recorded in Kuala Lumpur (4.9%), Selangor (10.7%), Pulau Pinang (16.3%) and Perak (3.2%). Conversely, Johor recorded a decline in market activity by 2.4%.

The primary market saw fewer releases of new launches. There were nearly 44,000 units launched in 2021, against 47,178 units in 2020.

Napic says the decline was expected as developers held back on the new launches due to the softening property market and increasing numbers of unsold inventories.

Sales performance was moderate at 39.3% in 2021.

A property analyst says the property market will, as always, continue to be driven by the residential sub-sector.

“Even without the Home Ownership Campaign (HOC), there is renewed enthusiasm among purchasers and buyers – something that was lost over the last two years as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.”

To help spur the property market, the government introduced the HOC in June 2020 under the Penjana initiative.

The campaign ended on Dec 31, 2021. Many industry observers and property players believed that the HOC was indeed a huge help to the market and urged the government to extend the campaign period into 2022.

Following the conclusion of the HOC, Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research says the “tables have turned” in favour of the affordable housing segment.

Comparative advantage

“Prior to the introduction of the HOC, the affordable housing segment enjoyed stamp duty exemption for property value up to RM500,000.

“With the introduction of the HOC, the affordable segment lost its comparative advantage as the stamp duty exemption was extended to property value up to Rm1mil,” it says in a recent report.

HLIB Research notes that in 2021, when the HOC was still in place, the percentage of residential transactions below RM500,000 had declined, likely due to home buyers rushing to take advantage of the HOC campaign before it ended on Dec 31.

“With the ending of the HOC, the tables have once again turned in favour of the affordable housing segment, as purchases in this category will continue to enjoy stamp duty exemptions.

“Even during the HOC campaign, the affordable housing segment was still the most demanded segment, comprising more than 75% of the number of residential transactions.”

Citing the Statistics Department, HLIB Research says as much as 20% or 580,000 households from the M40 households had shifted to the income limit of the B40 group in 2020.

“The broadening base of the lower-income group, coupled with the rising living cost from inflationary pressure, especially on the food cost, will bolster demand within the affordable home segment, as home buyers will likely opt for affordable housing due to income constraints.”

Meanwhile, RHB Investment Bank says inflationary pressures and the timing of the election could swing sentiment.

“On the macroeconomic front, we are also cautious on rising inflationary pressure, which may potentially dampen household disposable income.”

Apart from the expected increase in interest rates in the second half of this year, the research house points out that food and consumer product prices are also on the rise, which is in line with commodity prices.

“Given that the market has just recovered from last year’s lockdown, demand for property may be negatively affected if inflationary pressures worsen further, as property is deemed a big-ticket item that is considered non-discretionary.”

Given the conclusion of the state elections in Melaka, Sarawak and Johor over the last six months, RHB Investment Bank says some political parties are calling for the next general election to be held soon.

“Historically, the performance of most property stocks tend to be lacklustre six months prior to an election, possibly due to the uncertain outlook and potential policy changes after an election.

“As the next general election is due by July 2023, we think speculation will be rife in the coming months on the timing of the event.”

Rising building costs

HLIB Research notes that building materials costs have been rising persistently since 2021.

“From what we gathered, key raw materials such as steel and cement have risen more than 20% on a year-on-year basis.”

Under such a rising cost environment, the research house says property developers that will fare relatively better are those that outsource their construction work to third parties.

“This is as their construction cost will be locked in at a lower cost (amid the rising cost environment) when the job is outsourced.”

For new launches, HLIB Research says developers will likely be able to outsource the jobs at competitive prices.

Competitive job tenders

“This is because new job tenders among contractors will likely be very competitive (due to fewer job tenders available), as developers are more cautious in their launches due to the subdued property sentiment.”

In order to secure jobs to ensure positive cash flow, HLIB Research says contractors may be willing to sacrifice some margin to win job tenders from developers.

“Besides this, developers that enjoy high take-up rates in their launches are also those that are likely to have better pricing power, enabling them more flexibility to adjust selling prices to sustain their margins.”

RHB Investment Bank also acknowledged that major commodity prices, such as crude oil, steel bars, copper and aluminium saw significant price hikes.

“The resulting price increases in cement, sand, tiles and related products collectively added to the surge in total construction costs.”

Assuming the uptrend in commodity prices persists over the next six-to-nine months, RHB Investment Bank says developers will tend to be more prudent with their launches.

“Developers will likely resize or redesign, as well as maintain the selling prices and affordability of their products or look for alternative construction materials that are cheaper in an effort to mitigate cost pressure.”

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Unmasking the superpower America, the 'Dark Lord' set on destroying international order

 

Unmasking The Superpower: ‘Voldemort’ of global order. Illustration: Xu Zihe/GT

 Voldemort' of global order: America is the 'Dark Lord' set on destroying international order

Voldemort: The Dark Lord

 

 Editor's Note:

Since the start of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international community has grown increasingly aware of the role the US and NATO behind the crisis.

From imposing sanctions on "disobedient countries," to coercing other nations to pick sides, lip service on the Ukraine refugee issue, to a questionable overseas human rights record… the US has acted like a "Cold War schemer," or a "vampire" who creates "enemies" and makes its fortunes from pyres of war.

The Global Times is publishing a series of stories and cartoons to demonstrate how the US, abusing its superpower status, has been creating trouble in the world one crisis after another. This is the final installment.

1 Ukraine crisis instigator: US-led NATO reneges on 'Not one inch eastward' promise to compress Russia's space to the extreme
2 Instability brewer: Behind every war and turmoil in the world is shadow of the Star-Spangled Banner
3 'Vampires' in the war: US warmongers feeding on the bloody turbulence in other countries
4 Cold War schemer: Reminiscing in its past 'victory,' US brings color revolutions to 21st century to maintain its hegemony
5 The poison disseminator: How US spread biological 'poison', ethnic division and ideological antagonism around the world
6 Human rights destroyer: US causes humanitarian disasters around globe, killing innocent civilians and creating millions of refugees
7 'Voldemort' of global order: America is the 'Dark Lord' set on destroying international order

A woman walks past the landmark graffiti on the walls of the former US embassy in Tehran, Iran. Photo: AFP

"Just in one year, our sanctions are likely to wipe out the last 15 years of Russia's economic gains" and make Russia "an outcast on the international stage." These remarks by US President Joe Biden after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict are frightening. The US could implement such a "strangulation" plan economically and politically to a superpower like Russia,, not to mention other countries that are not as powerful.

Fanning the flames to create turmoil, using economic and financial hegemony to sanction opponents, and forming cliques to create political isolation - the US is using its hegemony to undermine the international order.

In fact, the US government's approach is quite similar to Voldemort's - they both believe in power, recruit followers, use violence, and repeatedly want to kill competitors in order to maintain supremacy.

'Paralyzing' sanctions

After the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, the US did not persuade Moscow and Kiev to negotiate and promote peace, but instead continued to provide military assistance to Ukraine in an attempt to prolong the conflict and to bring down Russia.

On April 13, Biden announced that he would provide Ukraine with an additional $800 million in military aid to help Kiev strengthen its defenses. Since the conflict, Washington's aid to Kiev has surpassed $2.4 billion.

In addition to supporting Ukraine ensnare Russia, the US has also imposed "paralyzing" sanctions on Moscow, involving economic, financial, technological and other fields. Kicking some Russian banks out of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), canceling the "Most-Favored-Nation" for trade with Russia, depriving Russian citizens access to their overseas assets, restricting the sale of Russian vodka... the US sanctions against Russia are all-inclusive.

Unwilling to act alone, the US is also pulling together European countries, Australia, Japan, South Korea and many other allies to deal with Russia, trying to "turn the ruble into paper." With their joint "efforts," Russia has become the country that has suffered the most sanctions from the US in recent years. According to a report by Sputnik News Agency, data from a sanctions tracking platform shows that since 2014, Russia has been subject to 5,532 sanctions, surpassing Iran and Syria.

Meanwhile, since the conflict began, at least 300 multinational companies have withdrawn from Russia. JPMorgan Chase previously predicted that Russia's GDP will shrink by 12 percent due to Western sanctions. Some Russian experts have warned that living standards in Russians may drop to 1990s levels. Meanwhile, the World Bank predicts that Ukraine's GDP will plummet by about 45.1 percent this year.

The war brought disaster to both Russia and Ukraine, while the US benefited.

A heartless dependence on sanctions

The crazy sanctions against Russia are just the latest manifestation of the US sanction addiction. Over the past 20 years, the US has relied on the tool of sanctions almost to the point of insanity. The number of sanctioned targets on the US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Asset Control sanctions list has grown from 912 in 2000 to 9,421 in October 2021, a net increase of 933 percent.

Iran, Syria, Cuba, Venezuela, and North Korea are all on the US sanctions list, the reasons given by the US government for punishing these countries include the so-called "anti-terrorism", "anti-corruption", and "protection of human rights, " but the real reasons are in fact closely related to the US' ideological differences and geopolitical interests. The sanctions have ultimately triggered huge humanitarian disasters in these countries, observers said.

On October 25, 2021 people held a demonstration near the US Embassy in Zimbabwe to protest against Western sanctions against Zimbabwe. Photo: Xinhua

John Mueller, professor of political science at the University of Rochester, has compared the threat of chemical and biological weapons to the massive death and destruction caused by US economic sanctions and found that "more people have been killed because of the sanctions than have been killed by all weapons of mass destruction in history."

Except for sovereign states, companies of all countries will be hunted down by the US as long as they affect the country's interest.  Germany's Siemens, Japan's Toshiba, France's Alstom. The US has set one trap after another for these competitors in the high-tech sector. They were all fined heavily by Washington, and their core businesses were severely affected. Some employees were even arrested by the US government on trumped up charges. Frederic Pierucci, former executive of Alstom, detailed in his book The American Trap about how the US, under the guise of anti-corruption, manage to dismantle many of Europe's biggest multinationals for more than a decade.

The US has always stressed the need to maintain the so-called "rules-based international order," but when it comes to international trade rules, the US applies them when it suits them and abandons when it doesn't. The WTO report shows that two-thirds of the organization's violations are caused by the US, making the country the biggest "non-compliant" nation of WTO ruling.

'Secret Cold War'

The so-called "rules-based order", a termed pushed by the US had gained currency after then US President George W. Bush ordered the invasion of Iraq without the approval of the United Nations (UN) Security Council, which "exemplified his general disregard for international restraints on American power," according to an article published on The New York Times (NYT) in June 2021.

Looking back at the wars in the Korean Peninsula, Vietnam, Iraq, Kosovo, Afghanistan and Syria - the US, under the banner of "upholding justice," "stopping aggression" and "humanitarian intervention," participated in almost all major wars and armed conflicts around the world since WWII to maintain its hegemony. That has led to untold humanitarian disaster to the invaded countries and regions, and plunged them into instability and economic recession.

Former US president Jimmy Carter, once referred to the US as "the most warlike nation in the history of the world." In order to impose its political system and values, the US willfully interferes in other countries' internal affairs. It also provokes the so-called "color revolutions" and incites unrest in the involved countries in addition to military invasions.

According to American scholar Lindsey A. O'Rourke's book Covert Regime Change: America's Secret Cold War, the US engaged in 64 covert attempts at regime change during the Cold War. After the 9/11 attacks, the US started to use "counter-terrorism" as an excuse to force regime change abroad. The war on "terror" spread to more than 40 percent of the world's countries since 2001, according to a special report by the Smithsonian Magazine. Another study conducted by Brown University showed that, the post-9/11 wars have led to over 929,000 deaths and over 38 million refugees and displaced persons.

US' economic bullying not only affects the economic livelihood of the sanctioned countries, but also causes serious damage to the global economic order and economic security. Western sanctions against Russia have also had a profound impact on the global energy, food and financial markets. According to the Financial Times, sanctions against Russia are the biggest blow to globalization, devouring not only the real wealth but also expectations of future global economic growth.

US and UK ambassadors to the United Nations vote on March 31, 1992 for sanctions against Libya.?Photo: AFP

A 'rogue superpower'

As a principal architect and custodian of the international order after WWII, the US is the initiator, founder and participant of many existing international organizations and international treaties. However, if these rules affect US' interests, Washington is quick to push them to one side.

In January 2017, the US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. In December 2018, the US announced its withdrawal from the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration. And in the following years, the US has withdrawn from the Iran Nuclear Deal, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty and other international agreements.

In terms of international organizations, the US has twice officially withdrawn from the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization in October 2017 and again in January 2019. When the International Criminal Court "encroached" on US interests, Washington was quick to threaten sanctions in September 2020.

"In the early 21st century, if any power sought world domination, coercing others and flouting rules, it was the United States," commented a NYT opinion piece in October 2020. Noam Chomsky and other prominent US scholars also bluntly said that the US has become a "rogue superpower."

Experts point out that countries of the world are seeing ever more clearly the behavior of the US in undermining the international order. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, facing the extreme pressure from the US, Serbia refused to follow the West to impose sanctions on Russia. On April 9, Iran, which has suffered from decades of US sanctions, announced the inclusion of 24 Americans on its blacklist of sanctioned individuals for violations of human rights of the Iranian people.

Conclusion

In the Harry Potter series, Voldemort's arrogance and unchecked need for absolute power lead to his eventual demise. Unmasking the nature of US government as Voldemort, its face has now been revealed to readers piece by piece - the US is not only the Ukraine Crisis Instigator and Cold War Schemer, but also the  Instability Brewer, Poison Disseminator, "Vampires" in the war who spread plague and creates hatred, a Human Rights Destroyer who committed grave crimes against humanity, and the ""Voldemort" of Global Order. The world has suffered from the US for too long, and it is only a matter of time before the US' hegemonic behavior and destruction of the international order backfires.

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