THERE is a joke in the golfing community, ask a man to wake up before sunrise, there will be a million excuses.
Ask a man to tee off at dawn, he will be right on time. In the years I have played the game, I have witnessed the laziest people putting the utmost effort into improving their golf swing.
The amount of money spent on equipment, coaching, practice rounds in the driving range, club membership fees, travel and flight expenses to overseas golfing trips is mind-boggling.
This sport is by no means cheap and compared to other equipment sports like ping pong, it is incomparable.
However, once you start the game, you will be hooked for life. Every single round of golf is different.
The experience of playing with different people and courses makes it even more interesting.
So, what has all this got to do with business or the stock market?
Well, we have a highly anticipated
Main Market initial public offering (IPO) coming soon, which is the MST Golf Group Bhd listing.
For those who play the game, MST is a household name for golfers. It has been around for as long as I was born.
Over the years, MST has grown from a single retail store to controlling more than 51% of the local golf equipment retail and distribution market in Malaysia.
It is also the second largest golf retailer in Singapore. Although some older establishments such as RGT Golf, Desa Golf House, Transview Golf and others still exist in the market, none of them have seen the growth rate and expansion the way MST has done through the years.
A game of passion
Golf as a sport has been growing tremendously in the past century since its founding in Scotland in the 1860s. Today, there are over 80 million golfers and 30,000 golf courses globally.
The United States, Japan and South Korea are the top three countries which dominate global golf participation.
Based on the World Golf Report 2023 data, worldwide golf equipment and apparel market hit Us$20bil (Rm93bil) in 2022 of which Us$11.1bil (Rm51bil) was in equipment sales and Us$8.9bil (Rm41bil) in apparel sales.
There was also a major surge in worldwide sales in 2021 with an annual increase of more than Us$5bil (Rm23bil).
The sport is so popular that a seismic change in the golfing landscape occurred in 2022 when a new professional golf tour funded by the Public Investment Fund (sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia) known as LIV Golf started and challenged the historic PGA Tour.
The prize fund up for grabs for a single season tournament reached a staggering Us$400mil (Rm1.8bil). Top-ranked golfers were offered hundreds of millions just to join LIV.
The PGA Tour reacted by banning professional golfers who played on the LIV golf circuit and multiple legal suits were filed between the two organisations.
Ultimately, a resolution appeared to be in sight following the news that a potential merger will go ahead between the two franchises. A Netflix documentary on golf, called Full Swing, depicts the sport’s evolution.
Golf as a sport has a huge market not only in terms of the annual growth rate of the number of players, but it remains the most lucrative sport in terms of the prize money and sponsorship deals.
We can see the continuous sponsorship of Rolex and other premium brands plastered all over golfing events.
Market leadership
MST’S IPO was oversubscribed by 5.28 times. This is a good performance considering it is a Main Market listing looking to raise Rm130mil for expansion.
At the IPO price of 81 sen, the market cap upon listing is expected to be Rm665mil. This is a rather huge IPO and not comparable to smaller ACE Market listings.
The question on some retail investors’ minds is that recent Main Market listings have been disappointing such as DXN Holdings Bhd, Radium Development Bhd and more recently Skyworld Development Bhd.
Some are concerned that the sentiment may impact this IPO as well. I am of lesser concern because the true value of the company lies not only in which market it lists but also its business itself.
Apart from the clear market leadership position of MST, many from the investment fraternity have used MR DIY as a peer comparison. I have also seen some other commentary using other retailers such as Innature, Senheng, Padini and others which are in the consumer retail space.
This led to the misconception that MST is listing at a very steep valuation. MST in fact is a specialty retailer and distributor of equipment for a global sport catering to the segment of consumers with the highest disposable income.
MST is very different from the other above-mentioned consumer retail companies which target the masses.
Furthermore, due to its track record and entrenched market share, we are unlikely to come across another golf equipment retailer and distributor company listing on Bursa Malaysia in the years to come. This is a one-of-a-kind listing and therefore, would enjoy a scarcity premium.
Ideally, I would like to see MST perform as well as MR DIY on listing day and the weeks to come.
However, the distinguishing factor that I believe would see MST sustain and do better for the longer horizon is because the MR DIY listing does not include the businesses in its other foreign markets which it expanded to such as Indonesia and the Philippines, etc.
For MST, the listing of the group includes all markets and MST is only starting to venture into Indonesia and Thailand; both are huge golfing markets by the sheer number of their population, popularity of golf tourism and burgeoning middle class.
A better peer comparison in terms of the valuation for MST would be Us-listed Topgolf Callaway Brand Corp.
It is one of the most popular golf equipment brands with a long history of being golfers’ favourite. Callaway has historically traded at an average forward price earnings (PE) valuation of 31 times. The immediate forward PE valuation is 23 times.
On the premise of the same valuation metrics, the likely intrinsic fair value for MST in 2024 is not too far off from TA Research’s recent report.
I often likened investing in the stock market to playing the game of golf. It is a game of patience, prudence and strategy.
A lot of practice and dedication is required to be good at the game.
Additionally, this is one sport where the biggest competitor is yourself and not your opponents. Consistency is the key, and one swallow does not make a summer. It is a long game.
Investing in the right company within a short span of time is meaningless if you cannot maintain the performance over a long duration of time.
Ultimately, the one who is regarded as a good investor, like a good golfer, is someone who consistently beats the market and surpasses their own performance over a long duration.
Golf is one sport that has a long-life span. It is a game that one can play until a ripe old age. Unlike badminton, football or basketball, the cardio element and companion requirements limit the longevity of the sport.
If your elderly parents are still insisting on playing badminton on a regular basis at the age of 70 and above, I would recommend you asking them to slow down.
Golf, on the other hand, would be one that requires little concern. If anything, the long outdoor session followed by the after-game chit chat session bodes well for the elderly who enjoy companionship.
Now, for those who have subscribed to the MST Golf IPO or are planning to invest on “Gong” day, I hope my article is able to shed some light on the economics of golf both for the uninitiated and for those who enjoy the game as much as I do.
But I must put forth a disclaimer; as an avid golfer myself, my views may be coloured by an inherent bias and lack the objectivity required for a fund manager.
Whether my love for the game would help with my investment or otherwise, we shall find out on July 20.
My best wishes to all fellow golfing aficionados, hopefully we can all reap the rewards of the long game. In the event this IPO goes out of bounds at tee off, we can always try asking Bursa for a Mulligan.
Dr M doesn't love me after all
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@taytakwang161