Showing posts with label forex. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Malaysian pride soars with the ringgit

It has been a while since Malaysians began to feel some pride. Certainly, the strengthening of the ringgit against the

There is bo doubt that the country's political stability under PM Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahlim is one of the main reasons for Malaysis's economic success.

KUALA LUMPUR: It has been a while since Malaysians began to feel some pride. Certainly, the strengthening of the ringgit against the dollar has made a big impact on national confidence.

The Malaysian ringgit, which continues its upward trend, has surged to its highest level against the greenback since March 2022.

Not only is it the best-performing currency in the region, but it also became the world's top-performing currency this month as it rode on the US Federal Reserve's large interest rate cut.

The comeback story of Malaysia, underpinned by an economy that has expanded at its fastest rate in the past 19 months, has attracted global attention.

There is no doubt that the country's political stability under Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is one of the main reasons for Malaysia's economic success compared to Thailand and Indonesia, which fell by the wayside politically.

The ringgit climbed to a 30-month high recently of 4.1815 against the US dollar recently. It ended last week, closing on Friday at 4.1230/1280.

Now, the speculations are that the ringgit could go up to RM4 against the dollar as BMI, a unit of the Fitch group, revised its year-end forecast for the ringgit from 4.55 against the US dollar to 4.0, reflecting the local currency's robust performance in the third quarter of 2024.

Looking beyond the six-month period, BMI even predicted the ringgit to strengthen by nine per cent next year, reaching 3.55 against the dollar by the end of 2025.

It sounds very good, but as we all know, the ringgit depends very much on external factors, especially on the US Fed interest rate trajectory and mainland China's growth, which is our biggest trading partner.

Over the medium view, there will always be some profit taking, which would affect our rate, but it is healthy and natural.

At one time last year, there was fear that the ringgit could hit as low as RM5 against the dollar, but now the ringgit has appreciated more than 12 per cent against the dollar.

Last week, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that "for Malaysians, the exchange rate of the ringgit against the US dollar, as well as regional currencies like the Singapore dollar and the Thai baht, serves as an indicator for how well the economy is doing and reflects confidence in the government."

Whatever the criticisms and misgivings that have been levelled against Anwar Ibrahim for his purported delays in reforms and even making compromises with the conservative groups who didn't vote for him in the last general election, he is on the right track for sure.

Malaysia is politically stable, and his Madani Unity government isn't going to give way soon. His opponents must wait for another three years to challenge him despite the many political noises generated, which Malaysians have grown used to.

The SCMP quoted Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid, the chief economist at Bank Muamalat Malaysia, saying, "The stability has facilitated more effective policymaking and implementation, boosting confidence in the ringgit.

"This has created better reviews by the credit rating agencies and global investment banks."

Reuters reported a news article under the heading "Malaysia shines as foreign investors return, peers stumble."

In its Aug 22 article, the news agency said, "Malaysia is fast becoming a haven in Southeast Asia, and foreign investors are returning to a long-overlooked market as a confluence of improving growth, stable government and rising currency sets it apart among peers grappling with political flux."

"Foreigners have steadily poured more money into Malaysian debt and stocks this year. In July, as political troubles brewed in Thailand and Indonesia, they pumped US$1.75 billion into Malaysian debt markets – the highest in a year.

"The stock market, Bursa Malaysia, is gunning for its strongest yearly performance in well over a decade."

At home, while the cost of living remains a big concern among many Malaysians, the inflation rate has decreased to 1.90 per cent in August from 2 per cent in July 2024.

Trading Economics reported that the inflation rate is expected to be 1.50 per cent by the end of this year, according to its global macro models and expectations from analysts.

More importantly, the number of jobs in the first quarter of this year increased by 1.5 per cent to 8.94 million – the highest recorded since 2018, according to the Employment Statistics, First Quarter 2024.

Chief Statistician Datuk Ser Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin was quoted by Bernama as saying that 8.81 million jobs were recorded in the first quarter of 2023.

HR Asia reported that Malaysia's job market remains robust throughout 2024, with "companies continuing to hire in line with ongoing economic expansion."

Malaysians now look forward to the annual economic report as well as the Budget to be presented in Parliament next month to have a clearer and more detailed idea of what's in store for us.

Datuk Seri Wong Chun Wai, an award-winning veteran journalist with over 40 years experience, is the chairman of Bernama.

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Thursday, October 26, 2023

Grand plans for Malaysians working in Singapore

All-time high: The Singapore dollar surged to a new high against the ringgit two days ago. - Thomas Yong/The Star

JOHOR BARU: Many Malaysians working across the Causeway are planning holidays and home renovations as the Singapore dollar surged to a new high against the ringgit.

Jason Wong, 27, said he felt that his decision to cross the border daily to work was the right one as he now has more cash in hand due to the strong currency exchange rate of S$1 to RM3.50.

“One by one, many of my peers and relatives had gone to Singapore for work, which led to my decision to do the same. I started working there in March after finding it difficult to get a stable job in Johor Baru.“I start my commute at around 6am and reach home after 8pm every day. It is tiring but the exchange rate makes it worthwhile. I can give more money to my elderly parents now that I have extra disposable income,” he told The Star.

Wong added that he was also saving to take his parents on a holiday for the first time next year.

The Singapore dollar shot to a new high of 3.5086 against the ringgit on Tuesday morning.

Ardy Zainuddin, 33, who works as a purchasing executive in Singapore, was happy to have extra money to renovate his new home here.

“My wife and I have just got the keys to our new house and with a second baby on the way, anything extra is welcome,” said Ardy, who has been commuting across the border for work for the past five years.

However, he hopes that the Malaysian government would come up with policies to strengthen the ringgit.

“The strong Singapore-Malaysia currency exchange is good for those working across the border, but I am concerned that the weakening ringgit will make things more expensive for other Malaysians.

“My relatives living in Johor and Melaka have been complaining that it is costly to eat out or even cook at home. They are also hesitant to travel overseas because of the weak ringgit,” he added.

Checks by The Star at several popular money changers in the city found that they were well-stocked with the ringgit to cater to the expected higher demand.

A money changer who only wanted to be known as Wan said, “This is the first time I have seen the ringgit dip so low against the Singapore dollar in my 10 years of being in the industry.

When the exchange rate was S$1 to RM3.41 in May, our business rose by about 30% as those working across the border as well as Singaporeans rushed to buy the ringgit in large quantities,” she said.

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Thursday, March 3, 2022

Shocking! MACC officers posed as TNB meter readers were paid in bribes as string cripples Bitcoin syndicates

Sting operation on bitcoin-mining power theft racket nets 18 suspects

Eighteen people have been arrested in relation to the bitcoin mining syndicate busted by a joint sting operation involving Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) and the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC).

MACC stings bitcoin miners

Open sesame A fireman breaking open a reinforced door at one of the Bitcoin mining centres. The raiding team had to break two more such doors before they could enter the premises.
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Electricity stealing spree comes to an end as Macc finally takes action

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In the three years that MACC officers posed as TNB meter readers, they were paid a whopping Rm2.4mil in bribes. The Bitcoin mining syndicates were raking in much more – about Rm50mil a month – but this is about to end soon. JAYA: It was a sting operation that began three years ago during which time MACC officers disguised as TNB meter readers were paid Rm2.4mil in bribes.
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Some were even offered Bitcoin – a first for graft busters – to turn a blind eye to the power theft by mining syndicates.
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The masterminds could afford this. They were raking in a whopping Rm50mil a month from their 1,000-odd premises nationwide.
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Yesterday, the anti-corruption officers crippled much of their activities by conducting simultaneous raids in Malacca, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Penang, Kuala Lumpur and Selangor. But it wasn’t easy.
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“It took us an hour to break open two doors at each premises,” a source close to the investigation revealed.
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“And then, there were three more vault-like doors to cut through before we could enter one of the premises,” the source said.
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“We had to seek the help of the Fire and Rescue Services.”
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Dozens of suspects were arrested, including the heads of the syndicates. More than 200 Bitcoin mining machines were also seized in yesterday’s raids that involved dozens of Tenaga Nasional officers.
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“Some 350 MACC officers were involved in the probe,” said the source.
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While it is not illegal to mine Bitcoin, power theft is.
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This is done because running such an operation requires dozens of computer servers that would be in operation around the clock.
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“This would require huge amounts of electricity,” said the source.
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“The amount of electricity stolen at each premises could amount to RM40,000 per month,” added the source, saying that the syndicates earned around RM50,000 from every premises.
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“If they had paid their electricity bills, they could still make a profit because most of them own dozens of premises each,” the source explained.
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“But, greed got the better of them.”
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Bitcoin mining uses sophisticated computer software to try to solve complex mathematical problems to unlock a “key” that will enable a new Bitcoin to be produced.
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The Bitcoin market is highly volatile. Its value fluctuated from RM160,000 to RM277,000 in a month.
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A MACC spokesman confirmed yesterday’s raids.
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Yesterday, The Star reported that Bitcoin mining operators were reaping in millions at the expense of the public.
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Local communities, including hospitals, that shared the same power source as the mining premises, were being deprived of supply.
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Some buildings located near the Bitcoin mining premises experienced power outages often, with some burning to the ground.
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It is understood that the graft busters began the sting operation following a sharp increase in losses incurred by the country due to electricity theft.
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“Each premises owns around 80 to 120 Bitcoin machines.
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“They bring in these machines from China via Port Klang. They declare it as computer equipment,” the source said.
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Investigations are being conducted under Sections 16 (b) and 17 (b) of the MACC Act 2009 and if convicted, the guilty face a maximum imprisonment of 20 years and can be fined not less than five times the value of the bribe or RM10,000, whichever is higher.
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On Jan 24, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Datuk Seri Takiyuddin Hassan said the country lost more than Rm2.3bil in bitcoin mining activities – an increase of 400% over the past four years.
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By ALIZA SHAH alizashah@thestar.com.my

Busting bitcoin bribers

On the watch: A TNB officer checking on a bitcoin mining premises.

`MACC zeros in on miners who pay meter readers to look the other way

PETALING JAYA: Bitcoin mining operators running their operations on stolen electricity and bribing electricity meter readers to help them hide their actions will soon have to pay the piper.
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The Malaysian Anti-corruption Commission (MACC) is zooming in on them and their crime which is causing financial losses in the billions of ringgit.
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“Graft-busters have been looking at dozens of such operators and they are expected to make their move anytime now,” revealed sources with knowledge of the investigation.
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It is learnt that these operators, who have branched out to every state in Malaysia, are even willing to pay up to a quarter million ringgit as bribes to meter readers to look the other way and give them a miss.
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While it is not against the law to mine bitcoin, running such operations requires dozens of computer servers working on a 24-hour basis, which requires huge amounts of electricity.
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Many are not paying their dues and are instead stealing electricity by illegally tapping into power sources or tampering with the meter.
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In an interview with The Star, sources said that in addition to cash, these syndicates even offered bitcoin, or cryptocurrency, as bribes.
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The authorities, they added, kickstarted their on-ground investigation a few years ago following the sharp increase of losses incurred by the country due to electricity theft by bitcoin miners.
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It is understood that the investigations are currently being conducted under Sections 16 (b) and 17 (b) of the MACC Act 2009, which stipulates that giving or offering bribes is equal to the offence of accepting bribes.
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If convicted, the person faces maximum imprisonment of 20 years and can be fined not less than five times the value of the bribe or RM10,000, whichever is higher.
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However, enforcers face several challenges in thwarting these illegal activities, especially since these premises are usually as tightly sealed like as a war-time bunker.
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On Jan 24, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Datuk Seri Takiyuddin Hassan said the country had lost more than Rm2.3bil in bitcoin mining activities – an increase of 400% over the past four years.
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The number of cases has also drastically increased year-on-year.
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In 2018, there were 610 cases while there were 1,043 cases in 2019, 2,465 cases in 2020 and 3,091 cases in 2021, totalling 7,209 cases.
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By ALIZA SHAH alizashah@thestar.com.my

Syndicate’s greed ravaging local communities

Fire hazard: The energy intensive mining activities of bitcoin machines that run 24/7, can lead to power outages, damage to electrical appliances and worse – potential fires. — Photo courtesy of TNB

PETALING JAYA: Bitcoin mining operators running on stolen electricity are reaping in millions at the expense of the public.
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Sources said the syndicates behind the operations were depriving the local communities – including critical sectors such as hospitals which shared the same power source – of their supply.
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The energy intensive mining activities of bitcoin machines that run 24/7, can lead to power outages, damage to electrical appliances and worse – potential fires.
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“Each premises is loaded with mining machines and the operators rely on air conditioning to help cool the equipment.
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“So, their electricity bills can go up to RM40,000 per month for each premises but their profit is just slightly above the amount.

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CLICK TO ENLARGECLICK TO ENLARGE

“That is why they have no choice but to operate using illegal sources (of electricity),” the sources told The Star.
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The Star learnt that some buildings located near these bitcoin mining premises had experienced power outages, with some even burning to the ground.
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“These bitcoin mining premises often use fuses that do not adhere to safety standards and load, exceeding the capacity of the cables. So, unfortunately for their ‘neighbours’, when the fire breaks out, they are also affected.
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“There were instances where reports were lodged over power outages at dialysis centres and clinics and upon investigation, authorities found that these were due to bitcoin mining premises illegally tapping into the power,” said the sources.
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It is understood that some of these bitcoin mining operators own hundreds of premises.
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“Bitcoin mining” is a process of using sophisticated computer software to try to solve complex mathematical problems to unlock a “key” to produce a new bitcoin.
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The first bitcoin miner to solve the puzzle is rewarded with a bitcoin.
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Only one miner can add a new block to the blockchain every 10 minutes by solving the puzzle and to maintain a competitive advantage, many operators would scale up or upgrade their equipment to run round the clock.
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A study in the United States suggested that a single bitcoin transaction required 2209.41 kilowatt per hour (kWh), which was equivalent to 75.73 days’ worth of power consumed by an average household in the country.
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The bitcoin market is highly volatile, with its value having fluctuated from more than RM277,000 in October to over RM160,000 this month.

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MACC stings bitcoin miner

Tools of the trade: (From left) energy commission ceo abdul razib dawood, azam and Baharin looking at the seized computer hardware at the Macc headquarters in Putrajaya.

18 nabbed and rm4.5mil frozen after three-year Op Power

The masterminds behind a multimillion ringgit bitcoin mining syndicate are among 18 individuals arrested by the Malaysian Anti-corruption Commission (MACC), following a threeyear sting operation codenamed Op Power.

MACC chief commissioner Tan Sri Azam Baki said the 18 individuals arrested are all Malaysian males aged between 30 and 60.

“We confiscated 1,157 bitcoin (mining) machines worth Rm2.3mil in total.

“A total of Rm4.5mil was frozen from bank accounts linked to 94 individuals and 29 companies.

“The MACC also seized RM281,180 in cash, RM82,000 in ewallet balances and some US$25,893.46 worth of cryptocurrencies.

“Five vehicles, including a BMW, Toyota Vellfire and an Audi, have also been seized,” said Azam at a press conference at the MACC headquarters here.

Azam added that the MACC is looking to arrest another five individuals with links to the case, but this has been put on hold as the suspects have currently tested Covid-19 positive.

The Star on Sunday and Monday reported on a sting operation that began three years ago during which MACC officers posing as TNB meter readers were paid Rm2.4mil in bribes.

Azam said the syndicate operators offered between RM3,000 and RM300,000 to TNB officers to help cover up their operations.

The syndicate was found to have used special devices to manipulate power usage to ensure that their operations used as little electricity as possible.

Azam said that while cryptocurrency mining is not illegal, power theft is a crime.

TNB chief executive officer Datuk Baharin Din, who was also present at the press conference, said the syndicate used sophisticated methods for their illicit operations.

“The quantum of the power volume that this syndicate has stolen is very large, and it was done continuously for 24 hours and 365 days. This went on for over three years.

“The technique the syndicate used to tamper with the power usage is quite sophisticated.

“You come across small households that try to steal power, but these people go way beyond that.

“To do what they did, you have to be very competent.

“So we are very thankful to the MACC for their big help in this operation and because of them, we managed to stop this syndicate,” said Baharin.

By JOSEPH KAOS Jr joekaosjr@thestar.com.my

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Tuesday, July 20, 2021

The seismic shift in global finance

The dollar accounted for 88% in paired foreign exchange currency trading in 2019 and 59% of official foreign exchange holdings

Why the global financial landscape is undergoing a seismic shift

Regulators are struggling to keep up with fintech’s rapid growth and the impact of big data, even as intense geopolitical rivalries mean accidents could easily escalate into crises

AUGUST 15, 2021 marks the 50th anniversary of United States President Richard Nixon delinking the US dollar from gold. Instead of a crisis, the ensuing half century marked the pre-eminence of the US financial system to global dominance.

In 2017, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin commissioned four major studies on the US financial system that reviewed its efficiency, resilience, innovation and regulation. These surveys highlighted the US dominance in all four areas of banking, capital markets, asset management and financial technology.

To quote the reports proclaimed : “The US banking system is the strongest in the world”... “The US capital markets are the largest, deepest, and most vibrant in the world..(that) include the US$29 trillion (RM119 trillion) equity market, the US$14 trillion (RM57.5 trillion) market for US Treasury securities, the US$8.5 trillion (RM35 trillion) corporate bond market, and US$200 trillion (notional amount or RM820 trillion) derivatives market.”

According to the reports,“Nine of the top 10 largest global asset managers are headquartered in the United States.” In the area of financial technology, “US firms accounted for nearly half of the US$117bil (RM480bil) in cumulative global investments from 2010 to 2017.”

Under-pinning the US financial system’s success is of course the US dollar’s dominant currency pricing role. The dollar accounted for 88% in paired foreign exchange currency trading in 2019 and 59% of official foreign exchange holdings in 2020. It is widely used in trade invoicing in manufacturing but less so in services trade. As a major International Monetary Fund study has shown, this pricing role impacts on emerging market economy (EME) exchange rate policies, as their devaluation would have only limited positive impact on their exports, but amplifies their import contraction.

Furthermore, because EME debt is largely denominated in dollars, any dollar appreciation would have an overall contractionary impact on EME liquidity and growth. This is why US interest rate increases are feared not just by the US Treasury, but also almost all EME economies.

Several factors combined to create the recent seismic shift in the global financial landscape.

First, financial technology has eroded the dominant share of the banking system. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) 2020 report on non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) revealed that as of end-2019, they accounted for 49.5% of global financial assets of $404 trillion, compared with 38.5% for the banks. Indeed, total NBFI lending now exceed bank lending, partly because of tighter bank regulations and higher bank capital and liquidity costs.

` Second, financial technology has enabled new arrivals in the financial sector comprising not new fintech startups, but also Big Tech platforms that are using Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, apps and their dominance of cloud computing to provide more convenient, speedy and customer-oriented finance for individuals and businesses. This month, a major BIS study on the implications of fintech and digitisation on financial market structure showed how Big Tech has muscled into traditional banking services, especially in payment services, lending and even asset management.

Taking the growth of NBFIs and Big Tech together, the traditional bank regulators and supervisors find that they regulate less and less of the financial system, but central banks are responsible for overall financial stability. Regulating the complex financial eco-system is like trying to tie down a huge elephant by a bunch of specialists each trapped in their own silos. And politically, no one wants to give a super-regulator power to rule them all.

Third, the financial landscape entered new minefields because of intense geopolitical rivalry. If global supply chains are going to be decoupled by different standards, and we arrive at a Splinternet of different technology standards, how should finance respond? As the US applies pressure on Chinese companies and individuals through new sanctions and legislation, financial institutions and companies struggle to deal with shifting goal posts and game changes.

A woman and a child walk past the People’s Bank of China building in Beijing on March 4. China’s central bank, like others around the world, is grappling with how to regulate the fintech industry. Photo: Bloomberg

The Ant Finance and Didi events are more a reflection of regulatory concerns whether large domestic Big Data platforms should be subject to foreign legislation with national security implications. Will India, for example, continue to allow foreign Big Tech to own all their client data?

Fourth, the regulatory trend towards “open financial data” in which banks would open up their client databases to allow new players to access customer accounts and data will provide new products and services. But this means also severe concerns on client privacy and data security. No country has yet figured out how to manage competition fairly in the fintech world when five firms (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, IBM, Oracle) dominate 70% of cloud-related infrastructure services.

Fifth, blockchain technology, cyber-currencies and central bank digital currencies are now increasingly coming on-stream, making possible payments and transactions that rely less on official currencies and also outside the purview of regulation. In short, the official regulators are responsible for system stability, but may not have access to what is really going on in blockchain space. That is an accident waiting to happen.

https://youtu.be/oukokqq1s_o

In addition to more than 600,000 COVID-19 deaths, growth in the US is based on a strong stimulus package of excessive money-printing. China's growth is more solid: Editor-in-Chief Hu Xijin

All these suggest that the global financial system has grown faster, more complex and entangled than any single nation to manage on its own. If the largest financial systems are caught in increasingly acrimonious geopolitical rivalry, what are the risks of financial accidents that can easily escalate to financial crises? In the 2008 global financial crisis, the G20 stood together to execute a whole range of responses. This time round, there is no unity as the US continues to apply financial sanctions against her enemies and rivals, amounting to 4,283 cases as of January 2021, of which 246 and eight respectively were against Chinese and Hong Kong entities.

The bubble in fintech valuation that has fueled rising stock markets and investments in technology is fundamentally driven by central bank loose monetary policy. Central bank assets have grown faster on an average of 8.4% per annum between 2013-2018, than banks (3.8%) or NBFIs (5.9%) to reach 7.5% of global financial assets. Does this mean that financial markets can assume that central banks will continue to underwrite their prosperity?

As inflation rears its head, central banks will have to reverse their loose monetary stance, thus putting the global financial system under stress. The global financial system has structural and regulatory cracks, but they can only be fixed by having some political understanding amongst the big players. Without this, expect a messy outcome.

Andrew Sheng comments on global affairs from an Asian perspective. The views expressed here are his own.

US$8 trillion and counting | The Star

Condivergence: Termites of the economy | KLSE Screener

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Tuesday, July 4, 2017

The Asian financial crisis - 20 years later

https://youtu.be/eocI_JZK5_g

East Asian Economies Remain Diverse

It is useful to reflect on whether lessons have been learnt and if the countries are vulnerable to new crises.

IT’S been 20 years since the Asian financial crisis struck in July 1997. Since then, there has been an even bigger global financial crisis, starting in 2008. Will there be another crisis?

The Asian crisis began when speculators brought down the Thai baht. Within months, the currencies of Indonesia, South Korea and Malaysia were also affected. The East Asian Miracle turned into an Asian Financial Nightmare.

Despite the affected countries receiving only praise before the crisis, weaknesses had built up, including current account deficits, low foreign reserves and high external debt.

In particular, the countries had recently liberalised their financial system in line with international advice. This enabled local private companies to freely borrow from abroad, mainly in US dollars. Companies and banks in Korea, Indonesia and Thailand had in each country rapidly accumulated over a hundred billion dollars of external loans. This was the Achilles heel that led their countries to crisis.

These weaknesses made the countries ripe for speculators to bet against their currencies. When the governments used up their reserves in a vain attempt to stem the currency fall, three of the countries ran out of foreign exchange.

They went to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for bailout loans that carried draconian conditions that worsened their economic situation.

Malaysia was fortunate. It did not seek IMF loans. The foreign reserves had become dangerously low but were just about adequate. If the ringgit had fallen a bit further, the danger line would have been breached.

After a year of self-imposed austerity measures, Malaysia dramatically switched course and introduced a set of unorthodox policies.

These included pegging the ringgit to the dollar, selective capital controls to prevent short-term funds from exiting, lowering interest rates, increasing government spending and rescuing failing companies and banks. This was the opposite of orthodoxy and the IMF policies. The global establishment predicted the sure collapse of the Malaysian economy.

But surprisingly, the economy recovered even faster and with fewer losses than the other countries. Today, the Malaysian measures are often cited as a successful anti-crisis strategy.

The IMF itself has changed a little. It now includes some capital controls as part of legitimate policy measures.

The Asian countries, vowing never to go to the IMF again, built up strong current account surpluses and foreign reserves to protect against bad years and keep off speculators. The economies recovered, but never back to the spectacular 7% to 10% pre-crisis growth rates.

Then in 2008, the global financial crisis erupted with the United States as its epicentre. The tip of the iceberg was the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the massive loans given out to non-credit-worthy house-buyers.

The underlying cause was the deregulation of US finance and the freedom with which financial institutions could devise all kinds of manipulative schemes and “financial products” to draw in unsuspecting customers. They made billions of dollars but the house of cards came tumbling down.

To fight the crisis, the US, under President Barack Obama, embarked first on expanding government spending and then on financial policies of near-zero interest rates and “quantitative easing”, with the Federal Reserve pumping trillions of dollars into the US banks.

It was hoped the cheap credit would get consumers and businesses to spend and lift the economy. But instead, a significant portion of the trillions went via investors into speculative activities, including abroad to emerging economies.

Europe, on the verge of recession, followed the US with near zero interest rates and large quantitative easing, with limited results. The US-Europe financial crisis affected Asian countries in a limited way through declines in export growth and commodity prices. The large foreign reserves built up after the Asian crisis, plus the current account surplus situation, acted as buffers against external debt problems and kept speculators at bay.

Just as important, hundreds of billions of funds from the US and Europe poured into Asia yearly in search of higher yields. These massive capital inflows helped to boost Asian countries’ growth, but could cause their own problems.

First, they led to asset bubbles or rapid price increases of houses and the stock markets, and the bubbles may burst when they are over-ripe.

Second, many of the portfolio investors are short-term funds looking for quick profit, and they can be expected to leave when conditions change.

Third, the countries receiving capital inflows become vulnerable to financial volatility and economic instability.

If and when investors pull some or a lot of their money out, there may be price declines, inadequate replenishment of bonds, and a fall in the levels of currency and foreign reserves.

A few countries may face a new financial crisis.

A new vulnerability in many emerging economies is the rapid build-up of external debt in the form of bonds denominated in the local currency.

The Asian crisis two decades ago taught that over-borrowing in foreign currency can create difficulties in debt repayment should the local currency level fall.

To avoid this, many countries sold bonds denominated in the local currency to foreign investors.

However, if the bonds held by foreigners are large in value, the country will still be vulnerable to the effects of a withdrawal.

As an example, almost half of Malaysian government securities, denominated in ringgit, are held by foreigners.

Though the country does not face the risk of having to pay more in ringgit if there is a fall in the local currency, it may have other difficulties if foreigners withdraw their bonds.

What is the state of the world economy, what are the chances of a new financial crisis, and how would the Asian countries like Malaysia fare?

These are big and relevant questions to ponder 20 years after the start of the Asian crisis and nine years after the global crisis.

But we will have to consider them in another article.

By Martin Khor Global Trend

Martin Khor (director@southcentre.org) is executive director of the South Centre. The views expressed here are entirely his own.

Related Links:

What Asia learned from its financial crisis 20 years ago - The Economist

The Asian financial crisis 20 years on: lessons learnt and remaining ...

The Asian Financial Crisis 10 Years Later: Time to ReaffirmEconomic ...

The Asian Financial Crisis 20 Years On | The Diplomat

20 Years After the Asian Financial Crisis, How Has Financial ...

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Sunday, June 11, 2017

On Mcoin, Bitcoin and points of investment

How to Invest in Bitcoin: 14 Steps (with P

MCOIN is still very much a talking point, especially in Penang. To the uninitiated, it is the “digital currency” of MBI International, a company involved in a myriad of activities and hogging the limelight for the wrong reasons after being flagged as one of the entities not recognised by Bank Negara.

Since Bank Negara’s warning two weeks ago, the company’s accounts amounting to some RM177mil have been frozen. The cash in question is significantly much more than the previous major scheme that came under probe by Bank Negara and other agencies.

In 2012, the authorities froze RM99.8mil in bank accounts of Genneva Malaysia Sdn Bhd. Also, 126kg of gold were carted away from the office. It has been five years and the investors, most of them ordinary wage earners looking to earn an extra buck from their savings, have yet to receive their money.

One of the reasons is likely that the liabilities of Genneva Malaysia are 10 times more than the assets recovered.

MBI International, which is primarily based in Penang, has a network stretching up to China. According to reports, it has come under pressure from some investors wanting a return of their money.

However, outlets in M Mall in Penang are still accepting Mcoin for the purchase of goods and services. There is no rush to cash out, as one would have expected, considering that the accounts of MBI International have been frozen.

Nonetheless, it is only a matter of time before the value of Mcoin and the ability of MBI International to return money to its investors is put to the test.

Based on previous events that led to companies having their bank accounts seized by the central bank, it would be a long time before the investors are able to retrieve their cash.

There are some who are completely ignorant of the new global order of currencies and money, making comparisons between Mcoin and the rise of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

If anybody is harbouring any hope that the value of Mcoin would rise just like the phenomenal bull run seen in the world of cryptocurrency, they had better stop dreaming.

There are fundamental differences between instruments such as Mcoin, which in essence is a token to redeem goods at a few outlets, compared to cryptocurrency that is fast gaining traction as an alternative currency around the world.

Mcoin has unlimited supply and its value is controlled by one entity. How the value is derived is not clear.

In contrast, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have a limited supply. And the supply is decentralised – meaning no one entity controls the supply. There is a ledger that tracks all transactions and measures the amount of supply and how much more is available.

The objective of the people behind cryptocurrency is to come up with a currency that is not controlled by central banks. New supply can only come about after hours of a process called `mining’.

The mining process is a complicated one. It involves many hours of programming and utilising high computing skills to predict the next chain in the block of coins. The data used is based on historical transactions and it is said that one block is created every 10 minutes.

Only one successful miner is rewarded with a slice of the cryptocurrency at any one time. He or she can then transact it in an exchange.

The first cryptocurrency is Bitcoin, which began operating in January 2009.

Bitcoin is only one of the hundreds of cryptocurrencies in existence. There are many more new coins coming up, improving on the technology pioneered by Satoshi Nakamoto.

Nobody knows who is Satoshi or if he really exists. However, the legend is that he wanted a currency that is not under the control of central banks, hence the birth of Bitcoin, the first decentralised currency.

The market capitalisation of all cryptocurrency was US$27bil as of April this year – four times more than what the value was in January this year.

Much of the rise is attributed to the volatile US dollar. A few years ago, if anybody had said that cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin would be used to hedge against the US dollar, many would have laughed it off.

Today, however, it is the reality.

The cryptocurrency fever has picked up in China, which has the largest number of “miners” in the world. One reason is said to be because some see it as one way to take capital out of the country.

In India, when the government decided to demonetise the popular 1,000 and 500 rupee notes, there was a 50% increase in the trading of Bitcoin, as people saw it as one way to legalise their black money.

Bitcoin soared past the US$2,500 mark last week, which is a four-fold increase since January this year. There are many other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, that are all seeing a bull run.

The world of cryptocurrency has taken a life of its own. Computer geeks with “blockchain” expertise, the technology that drives the decentralisation settlements of cryptocurrency, are commanding more than US$250,000 per annum.

It is said to be more than what a consultant or a software engineer can earn.

Those who have put their money into cryptocurrency would be laughing all the way to the bank now. But dynamics and fundamentals are complicated. The strength of the cryptocurrency is not based on historical numbers. It does not have an asset backing it.

It is based on future expectations of what the designer of the cryptocurrency offers. It is a complicated investment not meant for the unsophisticated investor.

Only fools will go for investment schemes that are unregulated and offer promises of returns that are unsustainable. They will lose all the time.

The smart investor will rely on traditional stocks and shares with earnings that are visible. Those who are not greedy will surely gain.

The super-smart geeks are banking on the world of cryptocurrency that has a volatile history. Their fate is uncertain.

Source: The Star by M. Shanmugam

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