Malaysian Chinese tsunami !

Barisan Nasional keeps its hold on power thanks to the Malay breakwater that held back a Chinese wave that swept over the country. 

A CHINESE tsunami swept over the country last night. It ripped through all the seats that had a significant Chinese electorate and devastated Gerakan and MCA in the peninsula and SUPP in Sarawak.

The tsunami was basically about the Chinese electorate going for change. The result was that the DAP emerged the big winner, making new gains everywhere, including in Johor.

But it was evident that the Pakatan Rakyat slogan of “ABU, or Asalkan Bukan Umno (Anything But Umno)” had also resonated with the urban populace in general because Pakatan regained Selangor with a two-thirds majority.

The Chinese tsunami also helped to carry many of the PKR candidates in many of the mixed seats.

However, the tsunami could not quite make it to Putrajaya.

At about 1am, a solemn-looking Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak announced that Barisan Nasional had a simple majority to form the government.

At press time, Barisan had attained 133 seats, still short of the 138-seat majority won by his predecessor Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Najib was clearly disappointed but he spoke in a calm and steady voice as he urged everyone to accept the election result as part of the democratic process.

The Malay electorate, especially those in the rural states, continued to back Barisan. It is a small consolation to Najib that the Malays have returned to Umno in a significant way.

The Malay wall held back the Chinese tsunami and Barisan won back Kedah. It also held on to Perak, which was a subject of speculation until close to midnight.

At press time, Barisan won Perak with 31 state seats against 28 by Pakatan. But Pakatan continued to dominate in Penang with an increased majority.

PAS managed to hold on to Kelantan with a much reduced majority, which showed that Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat's appeal as a religious figure still commands support in the state.

As predicted, PAS won the least seats among the Pakatan parties and DAP is now the dominant party in Pakatan with the most number of seats. It can also lay claim to having defeated a top Umno leader, namely former Johor Mentri Besar Datuk Ghani Othman in Gelang Patah.

The Pakatan wins also mean that Johor and Sarawak are no longer the fixed-deposit states for Barisan.

The zero sum game of politics means that DAP's gain is MCA's loss because both parties contested in Chinese-majority seats. MCA won only seven parliamentary seats, far short of the 15 that it won in 2008.

MCA president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek tweeted late last night that the party would not be accepting any government posts.

This was in keeping with the pledge made that the party would not accept posts in the Government if it did not do better this time.

A big question mark hangs over the future of MCA as well as Gerakan and SUPP and they will have to do much soul-searching after this.

The Chinese rejection of Barisan is a big blow to Najib, who went out of his way to persuade them to come along on his economic and political transformation journey.

The Chinese have rejected a moderate and inclusive leader, who has made more overtures to the Chinese than any other Prime Minister before him, and Najib and his coalition will have to reassess all this in the months to come.

There will also be soul-searching on the part of PAS, given its loss in Kedah and the defeat of several of its top leaders, including its deputy president Mohamed Sabu in Kedah and vice-president Salahuddin Ayub in Johor. Another vice-president, Datuk Husam Musa, lost in Putrajaya.

One of the most disturbing aspects of the election result is that the ruling coalition is dominated by Umno and the Malays while the opposition Pakatan is dominated by the Chinese-based DAP.

The impact of this will become clearer as the dust settles over the most closely-fought election ever.

Comment
By Joceline Tan
The Star/Asia News Network

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Malaysian GE13: In sickness and in health?

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Meeting the people: Anwar addressing the crowd during a campaign in Malim Nawar, Kampar.

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is a very busy man these days, but the person who awaits him each time he comes home must be reason enough for the opposition leader to get up and keep on going the next day.

DATUK Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail jokes that she has now become a JP – Jaga Pintu.

No matter how late her husband Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim gets back from campaigning, she always makes sure she is the one to open the door for him.

“I just think of how much pahala (merit) I must be getting by waking up to let him in and that motivates me,” says the PKR president who has a full schedule herself during this run-up to the general election.

Last Wednesday, Anwar was in Bandar Baru Uda, Johor, then Batu Pahat before finishing in Segamat. His ceramah only ended after midnight.

After that, he stopped at a mamak stall with the PKR candidate for Segamat and former health minister Datuk Chua Jui Meng for a drink before heading back to Kuala Lumpur.

He only got home at 4am, grabbed some sleep, then it was off to the PKR headquarters at Merchant Square, Petaling Jaya, for a morning press conference before rushing off to Pahang for another round of ceramah.

Again, he got back to Kuala Lumpur in the wee hours of the morning – this time it was at 2am – but at the crack of dawn, he was up for prayers and off to the airport to catch a morning flight to Sarawak for another packed programme.

Then he was in Sabah for more of the same before heading back to Kuala Lumpur before dashing off to Penang, Putrajaya, Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Perak and Kedah for the final leg of campaigning.

Dr Wan Azizah says Anwar is good at pacing himself and getting power naps to re-energise so he can keep up with the gruelling pace.

Since the dissolution of Parliament, she says the PKR leader hasn’t had time to do his usual five-minute exercise on the bicycle.

“So, he does some stretches. And if (second daughter Nurul) Nuha’s one-year-old son, Sulaimaan, is around, he becomes Anwar’s ‘dumbell’.

“He loves it when Anwar lifts him up and down. So Anwar does that 10 to 15 times and that’s his upper arm exercise,” she laughs.

To maintain his health, Anwar has also started taking bird’s nest soup. “Because I know it’s made from birds’ saliva, I can’t drink it,” says Dr Wan Azizah with her usual no-airs charm.

On the campaign trail, Dr Wan Azizah and Anwar split up so they can cover more ground.

“We BBM or whatsapp each other a few times every day and talk at least once a day,” says Dr Wan Azizah.

Wherever he goes, crowds flock to hear Anwar speak.

“If Pakatan Rakyat wins the elections on May 5, we will be sworn in as the new government on May 6, and on May 7 we will bring petrol prices down,” Anwar says at almost every stop.

He promises that a Pakatan-run Federal Government will fully fund Chinese and Tamil schools in the country and abolish the PTPTN student loan scheme to make university education free.

As for the multi-billion ringgit Iskandar project in Gelang Patah, he says if Pakatan takes over the state, it will make sure there is participation of Johoreans in the project and that locals benefit from it – not just Singa­poreans and outsiders.

Anwar also accuses Barisan of stealing Pakatan’s ideas in its Janji Ditepati manifesto such as the bringing down of import duty on cars.

Another star attraction at the Opposition leader’s ceramah is the PKR double-decker, 18-seater Jelajah Merdeka Rakyat bus.

“Whenever it stops, people crowd around to take photos and pose in front of the bus,” says Anwar’s press secretary Najwan Halimi, who is a mechanical engineering graduate with political aspirations himself.

“Sometimes if Anwar is in the bus and there is time to spare, he’ll get down and take pictures with the people.” Most of the time, though, Anwar is not on the bus.

Because he has to rush from place to place for the tight ceramah schedule and due to his back problem, Anwar usually moves around in a car and hops onto the bus the last two or three kilometres from the location.

“Sometimes party or division leaders would get on the bus to join the campaign and arrive at the venue together with Anwar,” says Najwan. “People love the bus because it is something different and special.”

Come May 5, voters will decide whether they opt for something different or stay with what’s comfortable and familiar.

ANALYSIS BY SHAHANAAZ HABIB

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Tumbangkan BN, Ini kalilah! (Himpunan Kebangkitan Rakyat 112)

IPTV market in Malaysia

The more the merrier in the IPTV market

Hopefully the battle gets fierce so that quality and content will improve to offer more choices to consumers.

IT has taken two companies - Astro and Maxis - within the same stable a long time to come out with their Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) offering.

The Maxis/Astro IPTV/broadband services were originally expected to be launched by end-2012 but were postponed to the end of the first quarter in 2013.

Astro and Maxis entered into partnership for IPTV/broadband collaboration in September 2012.

The good news is that both companies launched the Astro B.yond IPTV offering this week, riding on Telekom Malaysia Bhd's (TM) high speed broadband (HSBB) network.

Now there is another choice in the market place and Astro/Maxis will compete head-on with TM for market dominance in the IPTV segment. There are several other smaller players offering IPTV but not on the scale of these two.

A report said the continuous improvement on the speed of broadband and the availability of interactive applications would play a crucial role in the expansion of IPTV market around the globe.

Broadcasters and telecoms players globally have a new way to increase customer average revenue per user with the expansion of broadband and IPTV. The forecast is that the global IPTV market will rise to about US$106mil (RM323mil) in 2014. European countries are the biggest markets for IPTV, with France, the UK, and Germany leading the growth.

Asia is also responding strongly to this new phenomenon. This week, South Korea's SK Telecom saw its earnings rise, with its media business securing 600,000 paid subscribers for its mobile IPTV service in the first quarter. Astro claims to have a subscriber base of 3.5 million households representing 52% of Malaysia's total households of 6.7 million.

It is entrenched in the market place and TM's UniFi subscribers are readily accessible market for the Astro B.yond IPTV product as both are carried on the same HSBB network.

The caveat is that TM UniFi residential subscribers are locked in a two-year contract.

TM has to date activated more than 548,000 UniFi subscribers on the back of 1.39 million premises passed, covering 102 exchanges nationwide which translates to a 38% take-up rate. TM offers IPTV via HyppTV.

The choice is out there today, hopefully the battle gets fierce so that quality and content will improve to offer more choices to the consumers. As for pricing, it is still steep despite the value propositions and for a wider mass market appeal, the rates need a review.

And while Astro/Maxis claim they have a value proposition, TM may want to look to getting a bigger content library, and certainly, a cellular tie-up is recommended to counter the bundling that Astro/Maxis is offering.

Celcom Axiata is waiting on the sidelines. It also needs to get into the IPTV game and both TM/Axiata should begin talking seriously.

Friday Reflections - By B.K. Sidhu  
Deputy news editor B.K. Sidhu is still thinking about how and when the digital cable TV operator will enter the fray.


Astro upgraded on IPTV potential 

Target price: RM3.38 

ASTRO Malaysia Holdings Bhd has finally launched its Astro B.yond Internet protocol TV (IPTV) with Maxis Bhd, which could complement its services to subscribers with more value proposition and significant savings.

Although the Maxis-Astro IPTV offering enjoys lower earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) margin compared to Time-Astro IPTV, synergistic benefits to be reaped from this collaboration should be more than enough to offset the shortfall.

It was reported that Astro Malaysia Holdings has officially launched its Astro B.yond IPTV with Maxis Bhd as an alternative for consumers to have access to home fibre broadband internet and home voice services.

On this Maxis-Astro IPTV offering, we understand that the fibre broadband packages provided by Maxis will range from 10Mbps to 30Mbps.

The B.yond IPTV content packages provided by Astro will be on SuperPack, Value Pack and Family Pack with prices ranging from RM37.95 to RM100 per month with an optional Home Voice Package of RM20 per month.

We understand that Astro will recognise 100% of the average revenue per user (ARPU) from this IPTV collaboration.

For instance, assuming customer A subscribes to the basic 10Mbps broadband package with a SuperPack1 content selection, the total ARPU will be RM248 per month (RM148 from the broadband package and RM100 from the content package) and Astro will recognise 100% of this total ARPU of RM248

Subsequently, in the cost of sales component, Astro will recognise 75% of the broadband ARPU (which is equivalent to RM111 in this case) as the cost to be distributed back to Maxis.

Based on our back-of-the-envelope calculation, the EBITDA margin of the Maxis-Astro IPTV collaboration will be circa 29% versus the circa 38% of the Time-Astro IPTV's EBITDA margin.

This implies that with a likely increasingly higher take-up for the Maxis-Astro IPTV offerings, the EBITDA margin of the group on the overall will be diluted on a percentage basis.

As this Maxis-Astro IPTV will be complemented by Maxis' extensive reach of 1.3 million homes compared to Time's reach of 100,000 homes, we believe that it could immediately give a boost to its revenue.

This should increase its absolute profit despite the EBITDA margin dilution should the product be well taken up.

We also understand that 1.1 million (or 85%) of the current high-speed broadband (HSBB) home premises are on Astro's subscribership.

That said, for current Astro subscribers who are also having the TM Unifi package, they could achieve better value propositions and cost savings by subscribing to this new IPTV packages.

We are sanguine on this collaboration as it has bundles of win-win benefits for the subscribers and synergistic benefits for Astro and Maxis.

In conjunction with that, we are assuming circa 65,000 and circa 175,000 subscribers to take up this IPTV offering (mainly on SuperPack packages), taking cues from the management's guidance of circa 60,000 to 70,000 and 170,000 to 180,000 subscribers in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

Consequently, our net profit has been increased by 2.4% to 9.9% in 2014 and 2015 despite a lower EBITDA margin of 32.4% (from 32.7%) and 33.4% (from 34.2%) for the two years.

Consequently, our DCF-derived target price has now been increased to RM3.38 from RM3.10.

As the target price offers a decent capital upside of circa 15%, we are upgrading our “market perform” call on Astro to an “outperform.”

By Kenanga Research

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Malaysian election: Relooking ideals of democracy, How to casting Your Vote?

The workings of electoral democracy face many challenges that separate the democracy’s virtues from the sordid realities that need to be admitted and rectified.

Transformation Malaysia

IN a democracy, the government must be representative of the people and answerable, responsible and accountable to the wishes of society. Elections are one aspect of this accountability.

Unfortunately, the electoral exercise in all democracies is so colossal, involves so many details, so many people (240,000 workers for the forthcoming elections) and so much money (RM400mil) that it is extremely vulnerable to manipulation and malpractices.

Despite democracy’s undoubted virtues, the sordid realities of the electoral exercise need to be noted and rectified.

A genuinely democratic electoral process must possess the following salient features.

First, there must be in existence constitutional provisions for the existence, composition and tenure of legislative assemblies. These are provided for in detail in our federal and state constitutions.

Second, the electoral system must translate votes into parliamentary seats.

Two main types of electoral systems exist – the simple plurality system and the system of proportional representation. In the simple plurality system, the candidate obtaining the most votes is declared elected.

There is no requirement that he must obtain more than 50% of the votes polled. In a three-cornered contest, the “winner” may capture the seat with only a minority of the votes.

In addition to non-representative outcomes in individual constituencies, the simple plurality system permits a massive disparity at the national level between the percentage of votes polled and the percentage of parliamentary seats won.

For example in 2004, Barisan Nasional won 63.9% of the popular vote but 90.4% of the Dewan Rakyat seats. In Britain in the 70s, the victorious Labour party won only 37% of the popular vote but a working majority in Parliament.

In contrast, in the proportional representation system, parliamentary seats are given to parties in proportion to the percentage of popular votes obtained by them.

The positive outcome is that the legislature is truly representative.

But the negative feature of a proportional representation system is that a large number of political parties join the fray and none command a firm majority in the legislature. Instability, frequent change of government and gridlock result.

Third, democracy requires that a fair and impartial machinery for delineating and revising electoral constituencies must be in place.

Every citizen’s vote must carry equal weight. This means that in principle, all constituencies must be approximately equal in population size.

Unfortunately, if this ideal were to be strictly followed, all constituencies in rural areas, in hilly terrains as in Pahang, and in territorially large but thinly populated states as in Sabah and Sarawak will have very few MPs.

The Constitution in 1957, therefore, allowed a measure of weightage to be given to rural constituencies. Unfortunately, how much weightage may be given is no where specified and wide disparities exist.

The largest parliamentary constituency is Kapar, Selangor, with 144,369 voters; the smallest is Putrajaya with 15,355 voters – i.e. 9.4 times smaller. In Perak, the largest is Gopeng with 97,243 electors; the smallest is Padang Rengas with 28,572 – a difference of 3.4.

Fourth, a fair and impartial machinery for drawing up an electoral register is necessary.

In Malaysia, it is the job of the Election Commission to draw up the electoral register impartially, to ensure that no one is denied the right to vote, that there are no phantom voters or persons who have died, that no non-citizens are allowed to register, that voters satisfy the requirement of residence in their constituency and that no one registers in more than one electoral district.

Fifth, the law must permit universal adult franchise (right to vote). Regrettably, our voting age (21 on the date of registration) is very high. Consequently, nearly 55% of the population is rendered ineligible to vote. We need to reduce this proportion. There is also no automatic registration.

Many citizens are apathetic and do not register as voters. Some who do fail to show up on election day because voting is not compulsory.

We have 13.3 million registered voters who constitute only 46% of our population of 28.9 million.

If one were to deduct those who do not show up, this leaves only 34.5% of the population that participates in democracy’s showcase event! We must find ways to increase this proportion.

Sixth, there must be legal rules for the eligibility of candidates and for the nomination of contestants. These exist in detail.

Seventh, there must be rules about the limits on the powers of caretaker governments. In the case of PP v Mohd Amin Razali (2002), the court provided some guidance. We could also emulate conventions from the Common­wealth.

Eighth, legal and conventional rules exist for the conduct of election campaigns, duration of the campaign period and rights of political parties to reach out to the electorate. Ninth, election expenses are controlled so that the electoral exercise does not degenerate into a battle of cheque books.

In Malaysia, the law puts a ceiling on the expenditure by individual candidates (RM100,000 for state and RM200,000 for federal seats) and imposes a duty to maintain a record of contributions and filing of audited statements of expenditure.

However, there is no control on what political parties may spend or receive by way of donation.

Tenth, the Constitution confers safeguards for freedom of speech, assembly and association.

In many democratic countries, there are provisions for equal access to the media for all contestants. In Malaysia, media monopoly is a serious problem.

The Internet is, however, open to everyone and provides an alternative, though not always reliable, source of information.

In sum, though democracy is the best form of government, there can be no denying that behind the folklore of electoral democracy stand many myths and many utilitarian compromises. Every where in the world electoral reform is being called for. Unfortunately, there are no quick-fix, simple solutions.

For this GE, many improvements, like extension of postal votes to those abroad and use of indelible ink, speak well of the recognition of the need for reform. But the challenges are many and, in some cases, fundamental.

What one can hope for is that as in the past our electoral exercise will remain peaceful and that its result will provide a strong and stable government to lead us forward.

Reflecting On The Law by SHAD SALEEM FARUQI
> Shad Saleem Faruqi is Emeritus Professor of Law at UiTM




How to casting Your Vote?

Check & Print out:
Check on-line first (http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/semakpru13.aspx) and print out your details before going to the voting center. You may be able to by-pass the Barung counter since you have a printout and know where to go and thus short cut your time. 

How to hold your ballot paper? 

Shaken indelible ink: 

Failure to shake the bottles vigorously has caused the ink used for polling to be washed off easily, the Election Commission clarified, referring to several cases during advance voting which are causing a stir in the social media. The EC gave assurance that those who have cast their ballots will not vote again on Sunday.

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