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Saturday, March 3, 2018

Tailwinds and headwinds into 2018


  
2017 was a year of smooth tailwinds, even though everyone was mesmerized by the Trump reality show. Heading into 2018, one issue on everyone’s minds is whether headwinds will finally catch up when the tide goes out.

ALL markets function on a heady mix between greed and fear. When the markets are bullish, the investors know no fear and regulators think they walk on water. When fear grips the markets, and everyone is staring at the abyss, all eyes are on the central banks whether they will come and rescue the markets.

Last year was one of smooth tailwinds, even though everyone was mesmerised by the Trump reality show.

Heading into 2018, one issue on everyone’s minds is whether headwinds will finally catch up when the tide goes out.

Last week at a Tokyo conference, Fed vice chairman Randy Quarles was visibly confident about the US economy. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth through the final three quarters of 2017 averaged almost 3%, faster than the 2% average annual pace recorded over the previous eight years.

The European recovery, barring Brexit, looked just as rosy. Eurozone growth has stepped up to 2.7% in 2017, with inflation at around 1.2% and unemployment down to 8.7%, the lowest level recorded in the eurozone since January 2009.

In Asia, 2017 Chinese GDP grew by 6.9% to 59.7 trillion yuan or US$9.4 trillion, just under half the size of the United States. With per capita GDP reaching US$8,836, China is expected to reach advanced country status by 2022.

Meanwhile, the Indian economy has recovered from its stumble last year and may overtake China in growth speed in 2018, with an estimated rate of 7.4%.

The tailwinds behind the growth recovery seem so strong that the IMF’s January world economic outlook for 2018 sees growth firming up across the board. The IMF’s headline outlook is “brighter prospects, optimistic markets and challenges ahead.”

Expressing official prudence, “risks to the global growth forecast appear broadly balanced in the near term, but remain skewed to the downside over the medium term.”

Having climbed almost without pause in most of 2017 to January 2018, the financial markets skidded in the first week of February. On Feb 5, the Dow plunged 1,175 points, the biggest point drop in history. The boom in 2017 was too good to be true and fear came back with the re-appearance of volatility.

Amazingly, the drop of around 11% from the Dow peak of 26,616 on Jan 26 to 23,600 on Feb 12 was followed by a rebound of 9% in the last fortnight.

Global stock market indices became highly co-related as losses in Wall Street resulted in profit taking in other markets which then also reacted in the same direction.

Will headwinds disrupt the market this year or will there be tailwinds like the economic forecasts are suggesting?

What makes the reading for 2018 difficult is that the current buoyant stock market (and weak bond market) is driven less by the real economy, but by the current loose monetary policy of the leading central banks.

With clearer signs of firming real recovery, central banks are beginning to hint at removing their decade long stimulus by cutting back their balance sheet expansion and suggesting that interest rate hikes are in the books.

The projected three hikes for Fed interest rates in 2018 augur negatively on stock markets and worse on bond markets.

The broad central bank readout is as follows.

The Bank of England and the Fed are leaning on the hawkish side, the European Central Bank (ECB) is divided and the Bank of Japan will still be on the quantitative easing stance.

In his first testimony to Congress, the new Fed chairman Jay Powell was interpreted as hawkish. In his words, “In gauging the appropriate path for monetary policy over the next few years, the FOMC will continue to strike a balance between avoiding an overheated economy and bringing PCE price inflation to 2% on a sustained basis. In the FOMC’s view, further gradual increases in the federal funds rate will best promote attainment of both of our objectives.”

What is more interesting is the divided stance facing the ECB. In his latest statement to the European Parliament, ECB president Mario Draghi reaffirmed that the eurozone economy is expanding robustly. Because inflation appears subdued, although wage growth has picked up, he argued that “patience and persistence with respect to monetary policy is still needed for inflation to sustainably return to levels of below, or close to, 2%.”

In an unusually critical and almost unprecedented article published last month by Project Syndicate, the former ECB Board member and deputy president of the Bundesbank Jurgen Stark called the ECB “irresponsible”, suggesting that its refusal to normalise policy faster is drastically increasing the risks to financial stability. In short, the bigger partners in Europe think tightening is the right way to go.

If both central banks begin to reverse their loose monetary policy and unwind their balance sheets, liquidity will become tighter and interest rates will rise.

Financial markets have therefore good reason to be nervous on central bank policy risks.

There is ample experience of mishandling of policy reversals.

After the taper tantrum of 2014, when markets fell on the fear of the Fed unwinding too early and too fast, central bankers are particularly aware that they are walking a delicate tightrope.

If they reverse too fast, markets will fall and they will be blamed. If they reverse too slow, the economy could overheat and inflation will return with a vengeance, subjecting them to more blame.

In the meantime, trillions of liquid funds are waiting in the sidelines itching to bet on market recovery at the next market dip. But this time around, it is not the market’s invisible hand, but visible central bank policies that may pull the trigger.

Man-made policies will always be subject to fickle politics. The raw fear is that once the market drops, it won’t stop unless the central banks bail everyone out again. This means that central bankers are still caught in their own liquidity trap. Blamed if you do tighten, and damned by inflation if you don’t.

There are no clear tailwinds or headwinds in 2018 – only lots of uncertain turbulence and murky central bank tea leaves. Fear and greed will dominate the markets in the days ahead.

 
Andrew Sheng is distinguished fellow, Asia Global Institute at the University of Hong Kong.



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  • Friday, March 2, 2018

    Penang govt shocked at payment of RM22m to Datuk Seri to cover-up alleged corruption in undersea tunnel project.



    Mystery Datuk Seri in RM19m probe 

    Under remand: MACC officers escorting the Datuk Seri away after obtaining a six-day remand order from the magistrate's court in Putrajaya - Mohd Sahar Misni/The Star




    GEORGE TOWN: The Penang state government is shocked at claims that RM22mil was paid to two individuals to cover up investigations into alleged corruption in Penang’s undersea tunnel project – and wants the developer consortium Zenith Construction Sdn Bhd (CZC) to come clean on the matter.

    Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng said the state government was shocked by news that CZC allegedly paid RM19mil to an unnamed businessman and RM3mil to Baling MP Datuk Seri Abdul Azeez Abdul Rahim.

    “This is something we had no knowledge of,” he said.

    Lim was referring to the remand of a high-profile “Datuk Seri” for allegedly receiving RM19mil to close the corruption probe into the controversial RM6.34bil Penang undersea tunnel project.

    An online news portal, quoting sources, has also reported that CZC has issued a demand letter on Feb 24 to Abdul Azeez.

    The portal also reported that CZC was planning to sue Abdul Azeez and the businessman for allegedly failing to execute their tasks. - The Star

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    Attacks against Malaysian multi-billionaire Robert Kuok from UMNO leaders and Raja Petra uncalled for!



    https://youtu.be/cCoO3JEKZ48

    PETALING JAYA: The recent attacks against multi-billionaire Robert Kuok, including those from Umno leaders and a prominent blogger, are regrettable, says MCA.

    Party secretary-general Datuk Seri Ong Ka Chuan said it was a well-accepted fact that Kuok is a successful international entrepreneur.

    “Kuok has made tremendous contributions to the country. These comments are made to spread hatred and create disunity,” he said.

    Ong said Culture and Tourism Minister Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz has no right to request any Malaysian citizen to give up their citizenship.

    “This is not within his jurisdiction,” he said.

    Last week, blogger Raja Petra Kamarudin posted three articles in his website Malaysia Today, alleging Kuok was funding various political parties to overthrow the Government.

    In response, Kuok refuted allegations and that he would reserve the right to take action against the portal.

    MCA publicity spokesman Datuk Seri Ti Lian Ker concurred with Ong, saying there was no need to resort to harsh remarks against the 94-year-old tycoon.

    “MCA is of the view that Kuok is a businessman who has benefited Malaysians in general.

    “He is our business icon and revered by Malaysians from all ethnic backgrounds,”he said.

    Ti said Kuok has every right to support whichever political party and that there were existing laws to deal with any attempts to undermine the Government.

    “As a businessman, he could have supported many political parties and politicians from Barisan and Pakatan too. There’s no need to overreact by being ill-mannered in this instance,” he said.

    But Ti pointed out that all businessmen who have benefited from Barisan’s policies should be thankful and reciprocate with support.

    Two prominent Johor Barisan leaders – Tan Sri Shahrir Abdul Samad and Datuk Seri Dr Wee Ka Siong – came out to defend Kuok, saying they believed the tycoon would not interfere in national politics.

    Dr Wee dismissed Raja Petra’s claims as “unreliable”.

    “What was said on his blog was just a spin. There is no evidence. It is not persuasive,” said the MCA deputy president and Ayer Hitam MP. - The Star

    Monday, February 26, 2018

    Telling fact from fiction, fake news

    Easy target: Fake news is a big problem here because many of us are too impressionable when it comes to news on the Internet.

    HARDLY a day passes without someone sharing a video with me. No one bothers to check, not for a minute, if this could be nothing more than a fake video gone viral. Yet, amazingly, they are quick to forward such things to me.

    And that doesn’t even include the unsolicited political messages, through which senders expect their receivers to echo their political enthusiasm.

    More alarmingly, residents chat groups on uncollected rubbish or poor maintenance, suddenly see political messages popping up in them. Even prayer and old classmates chat groups aren’t spared, my goodness.

    Blame it on what is often dubbed “silly season”, leading up to the general election, but don’t test our patience by diverting our attention to something trivial. It is downright irritating and insulting. And who cares about these politicians, anyway? Not everything in life is about politics, after all.

    On Friday, a video went viral on what looked like a gun fight between the police and a notorious gang in Kuala Lumpur.

    Some truth-seekers took the trouble to check with the media, but most would have despatched it to their friends in no time at all.

    As trained journalists, we obviously scrutinised the video to look for give-aways. It doesn’t take a detective to pick out the holes, but then, there are many gullible Malaysians.

    For one, the tiny yellow taxis in the video don’t exist in KL. There is no such building with that staircase structure in the capital, either, and there was a camera crew in plain view running around filming the action scenes, clearly indicating a movie set.

    Most of the cars in the video aren’t even models we regularly see in Malaysia, and there was also a guy who ran by wearing what appeared to be heavy clothing.

    On Thursday night, it got even sillier.Leaping out of the world wide web was a video of what’s been made to look like a Malaysian student being bullied in a classroom.

    The comments by some racist airheads really infuriated me. With the victim appearing Chinese, the bully possibly Malay – he looked Indian to me – it became fertile ground to sow the seeds of hate.

    At no point did it occur to them that this video could have come from Singapore. It didn’t even cross their minds that Malaysian students no longer wear uniforms entirely in white. The last time students were decked completely in white was probably in 1979 – during my time as a student. And desks and chairs in green? In our schools?

    The Education Ministry has come out to confirm that the incident in that widely-shared video happened in Singapore on Feb 9.

    Describing the footage as a “severe case of bullying”, Deputy Education Minister Datuk P. Kamalanathan urged netizens to stop spreading the clip.

    “This happened at Westwood Secondary School in Singapore. Please don’t spread this video and claim that it happened in Malaysia.

    “Before forwarding anything, it would be wise to authenticate its veracity to avoid confusion and misinformation,” he added.

    A group of students from Westwood Secondary School were filmed punching, kicking and throwing chairs at a classmate in a video that then went viral, reported Singapore’s The Straits Times on Feb 18.

    In the video posted on Facebook page Fabrications About Singapore on Feb 15, a student can be heard egging his friends on to “teach” one of their classmates a lesson.

    Two students were captured throwing chairs at a boy seated at his table in a classroom while on his mobile phone. The boy is stunned when a chair hits his head.

    A student then slaps the boy, before throwing a series of punches and kicks at him.

    Then, the student overturns the boy’s chair, shoves him to the floor and continues to pummel him.

    Then, there was the fake sex video, which purportedly featured national badminton hero Datuk Lee Chong Wei as a “movie star”.

    I meet my fellow Penangite regularly, and I can safely say that I have observed him up close and personal.

    I can tell that Lee is much more muscular than that skinny, presumably, porno actor in the video, and the hairstyle doesn’t even match our sports idol’s.

    Lee has done right by making a police report, and let’s hope the police, with the help of the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission, swiftly track down the culprits of this vicious smear campaign.

    It’s obvious that some people not only want to discredit the three-time Olympic silver medallist but are looking for maximum mayhem by aligning their dubious act to coincide with the release of his feature length biopic Lee Chong Wei: Rise of the Legend next month.

    And that’s far from the end of the tall tales. There’s also this pathetic fake news about rejected Musang King durians from China – timed to perfection to be “reported” right before the International Durian festival in Bentong.

    The Internet burned with a doctored picture depicting a mountain of the “rejected” fruits, which were said to have been exposed to extremely high levels of insecticide.

    Those who shared that piece of poor journalism – either because they were sincerely concerned, genuinely ignorant or politically motivated – didn’t know, or cared to find out that Malaysia doesn’t export durians in its original fruit form but rather, as frozen pulp in packages.

    And for sure, the Chinese wouldn’t have wanted to bear the freight charge to return these bad durians to Malaysia. The life span of our durian is only a day or two. How could it have been stacked up like that in the picture?

    Durian lovers who inspected the picture could tell they were not Musang King, but instead, something of Thai origin.

    With the general election looming, the recycled rumours of Bangladeshi phantom voters arriving by the planeloads at KLIA2 have resurfaced. Even an opposition state assemblyman, in her Chinese New Year video criticising the #UndiRosak activists, cheekily added that “even the Bangladeshis want to vote.” Can you picture 40,000 of them milling at our airport?

    Although not a shred of evidence has come to light to back up the incredulous claim, the myth continues to be perpetuated, and it’s a given it will be rinsed and repeated. Perhaps it’ll be the Nepalese or Rohingya this time?

    While the ordinary Malaysian can be forgiven for being easily swayed, it’s an entirely different story when journalists find themselves duped, or God forbid, spreading the “news”.

    In the 2013 general election, a prominent TV presenter posted on his Facebook page claiming a blackout occurred at the Bentong counting centre, which led to the Barisan Nasional winning the parliamentary seat, slyly implying the coalition cheated during the result tabulation.

    He got his network into hot water when he returned to his FB profile to say, “when my child is born, I will ask him to write an essay with the title ‘The Blackout Night’. The beginning of the essay would be on May 5, 2013, there was a stiff fight in the Bentong seat. Someone had said that he would cut his ears if it is lost, and then the counting process started, blackout ...”

    To credit MCA president Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai’s opponent, DAP challenger Wong Tack denied the rumours. But let’s hope this presenter has since matured, and perhaps, become more cynical as a journalist or presenter, at least.

    The most frequent fake news that sparks to life every few weeks would be the dates of the Parliament’s dissolution and polling.

    Interestingly, in the case of the polling date “report”, it involved the Prime Minister having an audience with the King, accompanied by the Deputy Prime Minister and Speaker.

    It’s all very simple, really – the PM doesn’t need anyone tagging along, and after meeting the King, he surely can’t be fixing a date since that job belongs to the Election Commission.

    A news portal reported that fake news is a big problem here because many of us are too impressionable when it comes to news on the Internet.

    The Asian Correspondent reported: “Without questioning the veracity of certain claims and announcements, it seems that oftentimes, anything resembling a news story – whether shared on social media or via mobile messaging apps – is swallowed wholesale.

    “Let’s look at how WhatsApp has become a popular platform to spread news. How many of you have received forwarded messages that clearly resemble fake news and could have easily been dismissed as such? I’m sure so many have, and speaking from experience, it definitely gets frustrating.

    “The worst part is that when you question the person who unwittingly forwarded the news, he or she would say, ‘I don’t know if it’s true or not. I received it from someone else, so, I’m just forwarding.’”

    This has happened continually because no one is punished for their unscrupulous and reckless deeds, even if their actions lead to undesirable consequences amounting to racial tension, riots and even death.

    And the campaigning hasn’t even begun! So, let’s put on our thinking caps and brace for the inevitable soon – a deluge of fake news.

    On the beat Wong Chun Wai

    Wong Chun Wai began his career as a journalist in Penang, and has served The Star for over 27 years in various capacities and roles. He is now the group's managing director/chief executive officer and formerly the group chief editor.

    On The Beat made its debut on Feb 23 1997 and Chun Wai has penned the column weekly without a break, except for the occasional press holiday when the paper was not published. In May 2011, a compilation of selected articles of On The Beat was published as a book and launched in conjunction with his 50th birthday. Chun Wai also comments on current issues in The Star.


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    Malaysia's Corruption Perception Index worsen seven rungs

    Lawyers participating in a peaceful rally, calling for the Sedition Act to be repealed, in Kuala Lumpur in 2014. The law was used in the same year against, among others, a student activist, and another seven people, including a journalist, were being investigated under the act. – EPA pic, February 22, 2018.

    Need to relook whistleblowing laws


    KUALA LUMPUR: The recent conviction of a whistleblower and the absence of political financing laws are among the reasons that affected Malaysia's global anti-corruption scores, Transparency InternationaI Malaysia (TI-M) president Datuk Akhbar Satar said when presenting the 2017 Corruption Perception Index (CPI) today.

    Malaysia ranked 62 among 180 countries in the CPI last year, dropping from 55th spot in 2016.

    The index put Malaysia in the same spot as Cuba, with a score of 47 out of 100.

    In 2016, Malaysia ranked 55 with a score of 49.

    The CPI is a global aggregate index capturing corruption perception in the public sector worldwide based on expert opinions using a scale of 0-100, with a smaller score denomination denoting a higher level of corruption.

    "This is the worst score in the last five years and the lowest ranking since CPI was introduced in 1994."

    Akhbar said contributing factors to such poor perception of Malaysia include unresolved cases involving 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), absence of political financing laws and corporate liability provisions in anti-graft laws.

    "The reason is simple ... the 1MDB and SRC International Sdn Bhd issues, Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd scandal and also the conviction of PKR vice-president Rafizi Ramli for whistleblowing."

    Akhbar stressed that Malaysia has to relook into its whistleblowing laws to ensure there is proper protection for those who expose corrupt activities.

    "It is very sad that whistleblowers get arrested and punished here when most other countries have tried to enact whistleblowing laws to protect them.

    "Here, we are at the opposites. If you don't comply with the whistleblowing policy and use the media to expose corruption, then you are not protected.

    The top five countries in the 2017 index were New Zealand (89) and Denmark (88), followed by Finland, Norway and Switzerland (85).

    The index also revealed that more than two-thirds of countries worldwide scored below 50, with an average score of 43.

    Countries at the bottom of the index were Yemen, Sudan, Afghanistan, Syria, South Sudan and Somalia.

    Meanwhile, MACC honorary commissioner and former TI-M president Tan Sri Ramon Navaratnam expressed disappointment on Malaysia's score.

    "All the good work done by MACC to robustly fight corruption has been negated by the apparent inability to do more to contain 'grand corruption', which matters in the view of TI," he said.


    By Karen Arukesamy newsdesk@thesundaily.com

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    Corruption Perceptions Index 2017 

    https://www.transparency.org/news/feature/corruption_perceptions_index_2017


     This year’s Corruption Perceptions Index highlights that the majority of countries are making little or no progress in ending corruption, while further analysis shows journalists and activists in corrupt countries risking their lives every day in an effort to speak out.

    The index, which ranks 180 countries and territories by their perceived levels of public sector corruption according to experts and businesspeople, uses a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 is highly corrupt and 100 is very clean. This year, the index found that more than two-thirds of countries score below 50, with an average score of 43. Unfortunately, compared to recent years, this poor performance is nothing new.




    Share

    http://www.transparency.org/cpi2017

    This year, New Zealand and Denmark rank highest with scores of 89 and 88 respectively. Syria, South Sudan and Somalia rank lowest with scores of 14, 12 and 9 respectively. The best performing region is Western Europe with an average score of 66. The worst performing regions are Sub-Saharan Africa (average score 32) and Eastern Europe and Central Asia (average score 34).


    Download CPI 2017 XLSX dataset

    Since 2012, several countries significantly improved their index score, including Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal and the United Kingdom, while several countries declined, including Syria, Yemen and Australia.

    Research analysis

    Further analysis of the results indicates that countries with the least protection for press and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) also tend to have the worst rates of corruption.

    Every week at least one journalist is killed in a country that is highly corrupt.

    The analysis, which incorporates data from the Committee to Protect Journalists, shows that in the last six years, more than 9 out of 10 journalists were killed in countries that score 45 or less on the index.