US itself is accelerating the de-dollarization process
De-Dollarization and the Fall of American Hegemony
Ever since the Fed ended its ultra-loose monetary policy and turned to a radical rate hike approach, the international financial market has been in turmoil with many currencies depreciating sharply. That has forced many countries to diversify their foreign exchange reserve assets. – AP
MARKET expectations for the Federal Reserve to end interest rate hikes have picked up as core inflation data in the United States has dropped and the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index fell from 67 in February to 62 in March – yet worries abound about the outlook for the US economy.
Former US Treasury secretary Larry Summers said recently that it is too early to say that the US has shaken off the financial woes caused by its rapid interest rate hikes. The US economy is likely to experience a serious recession as a result of the recent banking crisis, with little chances of a “soft landing”. With recession expectations picking up, the factors supporting a strong US dollar are disappearing.
Ever since the Fed ended its ultra-loose monetary policy and turned to a radical rate hike approach, the international financial market has been in turmoil, with many currencies depreciating sharply. That has forced many countries to reduce holdings of US Treasuries, diversifying foreign exchange reserve assets.
In mid-march, Russia’s central bank reported that the ruble and “friendly” currencies together accounted for 52% of Russian export settlements at the end of 2022, surpassing the share of the US dollar and euro for the first time on record.
The members of Asean agreed at the end of March to strengthen the use of local currencies in the region and reduce reliance on major international currencies in cross-border trade and investment. On April 1, India and Malaysia agreed to settle trade in Indian rupees.
Data show that the proportion of US dollar reserves and assets in global central banks’ foreign exchange reserves has dropped from 65.46% in the first quarter of 2016 to 59.79% in the third quarter of 2022.
Despite its declining status, the US dollar still accounts for the largest share of global trade settlement, central banks’ foreign exchange reserves, global debt pricing, and global capital flows. However, the abuse of the US dollar hegemony has led many countries to launch a “de-dollarisation” campaign. The more the US dollar is used as a weapon, the faster it will be abandoned by other countries.
It’s unrealistic that some in the United States want to safeguard the benefits brought by the US dollar as a leading international currency, but don’t want to shoulder corresponding international responsibilities. – China Daily/Asia News Network
“This is all part of a broader discussion of possibilities for reducing the use of the dollar. This discussion is not new and has happened in the past but it appears to be more serious now and the actual changes are taking place,” - Prof Geoffrey William
Of late, the hot topic that is rapidly gaining pace is many countries, including Malaysia, are mulling the idea of reducing their trade dependency on the US dollar.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has also lent heavy support to the thought of reducing Malaysia’s dependency on the greenback in terms of attracting foreign direct investments into the country, as well as in bilateral trades not involving the United States.
This came as Anwar announced on Tuesday that investments worth about RM170bil by China-based companies would be kicking off next month.
The prime minister has also last week proposed the setting up of an Asian Monetary Fund (AMF), stressing the need to lower reliance on the greenback as well as the US-backed International Monetary Fund (IMF), an idea that he himself reported has been well received by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is open to discussing its implementation.
According to Geoffrey Williams, economics professor at Malaysia University of Science and Technology (MUST), what Anwar was saying is in line with a growing group of international leaders seriously questioning the role of the dollar and the US/European Union systems, hence the prime minister’s comment is a change of tone with possible action points.
“This is all part of a broader discussion of possibilities for reducing the use of the dollar. This discussion is not new and has happened in the past but it appears to be more serious now and the actual changes are taking place,” Williams told StarBiz.
He concurred with Anwar’s view that bilateral trade between two nations could use the currencies of the countries involved instead of the dollar, calling it “feasible” and is in fact growing in popularity.
“Most commodities are priced and traded in dollars but direct sale of oil between Russia and China as well as India is circumventing that arrangement.
“There is an increasing probability this will extend to more countries and more commodities,” Williams said.
Some parties have even suggested that Anwar may not be taking any sides in the global balance of power between China and the United States, despite his preference for dollar independence.
However, uneasiness remains on the geopolitical implications of the suggested move and how it will affect relationships between countries such as Malaysia and the United States as well as its allies.
While acknowledging such concerns, Williams said: “At the moment, many countries are understandably questioning whether the dollar dominance is beneficial to them and if better exchange arrangements could be found.”
Meanwhile, economist and chief executive at Centre for Market Education, Dr Carmelo Ferlito, said that while countries can ponder over better options in a multipolar world, alternatives need to be weighed in with painstaking care.
Ferlito said the appearance of the euro in 1999 was met with a warm welcome since it forced the dollar to face a competitor characterised by stronger monetary discipline, and that the emergence of something new in the East, if properly conceived, could strengthen the path towards monetary stability.
However, he added: “If global currency competition were to move in the right direction, the path will remain incomplete without an actual competition between currencies within countries.
“A competition that enables individuals to choose the currency to be used for their daily transactions, favouring the emergence of a virtuous competition among currencies toward stability.
“Our point is thus that the new and vibrant developments in the international monetary scene can be a source of benefit – rather than spawn geopolitical tension – only if accompanied by a true opening of national economies to competition among available currencies.
A novel Asean or BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) currency could become a strong alternative
“In this way, a novel Asean or BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) currency could become a strong alternative not as the result of a political will of power but simply as a consequence of market competition.”
On the setting up of an AMF, MUST’s Williams said such an idea is definitely attainable but would require participation across many Asian countries, especially to provide the finance and to agree to the terms on which access to that finance is made available.
As such, he remarked that it is not just a financial matter but also a geopolitical one.
“The main issue is who will fund the AMF and what will be the contribution rates for each member.
“It is likely that most will come from China, unless Japan and South Korea joins in. Otherwise most Asian countries are too small to contribute much.
“Ultimately, this will be driven by economic cost-benefit considerations and whether non-aligned countries like Malaysia can maintain good relationships with all parties without using the dollar,” he noted.
On the other hand, the move to bilateral currencies for trade and investment between two countries, while feasible, would be more at risk to exchange fluctuations and liquidity issues, Williams said, adding that this could be improved by a switch to multiple currency options.
Of note, and on something that has not been touched by Anwar, the economics professor said the dollar still provides stable, reliable and secure financial systems such as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT).
“Cybersecurity is essential and the questions of geopolitical stability also arise but these may not be solved by breaking up international systems into smaller regional systems,” he said.
There certainly has been an influx of recent activities geared towards reducing the use of the dollar in international trade, such as the discussions between Brazil and Argentina to create a common currency or Saudi Arabia declaring its openness to trade in other currencies other than the greenback for the first time in 48 years.
But the fact that the International Monetary Fund data shows central banks worldwide are still holding about 60% of their foreign exchange reserves in dollars as at the fourth quarter of 2022 literally means it is extremely unlikely the currency would be losing its status as the global reserve unit anytime soon.
India relies on the weak oversight of developing countries that make up the bulk of its exports – that’s how it can continue to push substandard and often deadly medicines there. — Bloomberg
FOR a nation that seeks to claim the mantle of “pharmacy to the world,” India is scandalously short on regulatory oversight.
In the last six months, its generic cough syrups have killed dozens of children, its eye drops have caused blindness and its chemotherapy drugs have been contaminated.
The children who died – mostly under the age of five years – were given Indian-made over-the-counter products contaminated with industrial solvents and antifreeze agents that are fatal in even small amounts.
The eye drops that contained extensively drug-resistant bacteria? So far 68 patients across 16 US states have been affected. Three people died, several had to have their eyeballs removed, some went blind, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported on March 21.
The Indian company, Global Pharma Healthcare, issued a voluntary nationwide recall for the drops. India is the largest provider of generic medicines, producing 20% of the world’s supply, according to the government’s Economic Survey.
Its US$50bil (RM220bil) drug-manufacturing industry exports medicines to over 200 nations and makes 60% of all vaccines. It boasts “the highest number” of US Food and Drug Administration or FDA-compliant plants outside America, and indeed, some of its generic pharmaceutical companies produce high-quality medicines.
That may well provide consumers with a level of comfort, but history suggests it is unwise to trust that feeling.
The latest drug recalls just add to a long line of scandals that have tainted the sector.
In 2013, a US subsidiary of major Indian drug manufacturer Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd pleaded guilty to US federal criminal charges and agreed to pay US$500mil (RM2.2bil) lion for selling adulterated generic drugs, fabricating data, and committing fraud. Serious flaws in the FDA compliance regime allowed these breaches to go undiscovered, until a years-long investigation laid bare the endemic corruption.
A generic drug made in India and modelled on Lipitor sold in the US to treat high cholesterol, for example, was contaminated with shards of blue glass, as journalist Katherine Eban documented in her book, Bottle of Lies: The Inside Story of the Generic Drug Boom. Her book draws in part on the experience of whistleblower Dinesh Thakur, who worked at Ranbaxy.
You would think such a damning indictment would prompt India to develop a safer, better pharmaceutical oversight regime. Think again.
The systemic fraud exposed by the investigation – where data was routinely falsified to fool inspectors, increase production and maximise profit – did not result in a regulatory overhaul.
Still, a two-day “brainstorming session” held in February appeared to acknowledge the system’s inherent weaknesses, with Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya telling participants India needed to “move from generic to quality-generic drugs.”
Discussions involved “how to make the country’s drugs regulatory systems transparent, predictable and verifiable,” according to a health ministry media release.
Consumers shouldn’t hold their breath, though. A national law on drug recalls has been under discussion since 1976 without resolution, and the government – at least publicly –remains in denial: Since the Ranbaxy scandal, Thakur has campaigned for the reform of India’s main regulator, the Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation, and, with lawyer T. Prashant Reddy, has written his own book, The Truth Pill: The Myth of Drug Regulation in India, which was published in October.
They note that adulterated Indian drugs aren’t just killing children in developing-world export markets like Gambia and Uzbekistan. They’re also killing children at home: In 2019, at least 11 infants died in the state of Jammu because of cough syrup containing diethylene glycol.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) sent alerts in October and January, asking for the cough medicine to be removed from the shelves. (It also issued a warning last year for cough syrups made by four Indonesian manufacturers sold in that country, where 203 children died in similar circumstances.)
Maiden Pharmaceuticals, whose medicines were sold in Gambia and linked by the WHO to the deaths of at least 70 children, has denied wrongdoing. And India’s regulator rejected the WHO’s findings, saying no toxic substances had been found in samples taken from Maiden’s plant.
It shouldn’t have taken more deaths for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration to act. The red flags have been there for years. What’s lacking is political will, and transparency. The FDA publishes different reviews of new drug applications on its website, along with detailed notes.
So why does contamination with such deadly substances occur so regularly?
“The simple answer is that Indian pharmaceutical companies quite often fail to test either the raw materials or the final formulation before shipping it to market,” Thakur said.
India relies on the weak oversight of developing countries that make up the bulk of its exports – that’s how it can continue to push substandard and often deadly medicines there.
In the absence of a global framework for pharmaceutical safety, what can be done to make the generic drugs that consumers around the world have come to rely on safer and effective?
For a start, the WHO’s prequalification programme, which facilitates the purchase of billions of dollars’ worth of medicines through international agencies such as Unicef, must be overhauled. Then there’s the question of holding these companies to account for the harm they cause inside and outside India via legal avenues and victims’ compensation. — Bloomberg
- Ruth Pollard is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.
Mr. Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore, Dr. Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia
To compare Mahathir with Mr Lee is like placing a pig next to a lion. The short answer is: No Comparison! Let me explain my reasons.
After 55 years after these 2 men become PM of the respective country, Mr Lee left behind a legacy of democracy, progress, dynamism and true success for Singaporeans and the nation Singapore. On the other hand, Mahathir has broken Malaysia into multiple segments of people - divided by race, religion, economic status - mistrusting and suspicious of each other. Economically 70% of Malaysians are poor except all his 7 children are billionaires in Ringgit terms.
At a personal level, all Mr Lee’s children attended and graduated from top notch universities in the USA or UK and qualified as professionals. On the other hand, all Mahathir attended 2nd or 3rd tier institutions in these countries but never work for a day yet became billionaires. How?? They received parts of the money Mahathir looted from the country’s coffers.
How they are remembered by their country men and women. Singaporeans - even those who dislike Mr Lee’s policies - recognized that the man has been good to Singapore. Conversely, Mahathir has confirmed himself a unreformed racist, self-centred street level political manipulator who destroyed Malaysia.
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DUMPING U.S. Bonds for Gold! China Openly Fights the Dollar, PROMOTING the Oil-Yuan.
China is accelerating its de-dollarization efforts in three key areas: local currency settlement, petrodollars, and converting U.S. debt into gold. Additionally, the Abuse Of The Dollar's Monetary Status and the Federal Reserve's irresponsible monetary policies have prompted several countries worldwide to switch from the dollar to other currencies. This is one reason why several landmark de-dollarization announcements have emerged in recent weeks.
Among these announcements, Brazil has entered into an agreement with China whereby the two countries can now settle trades using either the Yuan or the real, excluding the dollar. China and France have also completed their first LNG trade in Yuan, ending European countries' dependence on petrodollars. Meanwhile, at a meeting in Indonesia, ASEAN finance ministers and central bank governors prioritized de-dollarization and chose to use their national currencies for cross-border payment settlements. Indonesia suggested abandoning the use of a dollar-dominated payment system and instead using credit cards issued by local banks to enhance the independence and security of financial transactions and prevent the adverse effects of instrumentalizing the dollar. Malaysia, which has abundant oil reserves, even proposed a pan-Asian gold-backed currency to replace the U.S. dollar among Southeast Asia, as gold is more stable compared to the U.S. dollar.
Gaining recognition: A person holds Chinese yuan banknotes. More economies are willing to use the yuan in clearing and payments, which is a significant step for the Chinese currency to internationalise. — Reuters
Dump Your USD!!
Why The World Is Dumping The American Dollar
Why the World Is Dumping the American Dollar | Vantage with Palki Sharma. China and Brazil have struck a deal to trade in their local currencies instead of the US dollar. They joined a long list of countries including Saudi Arabia, Kenya and India. Why is the world attempting to de-dollarise? Palki Sharma decodes
HAINAN: The Chinese yuan is speeding up in expanding its global use, a trend that will help build a more resilient international monetary system, one that is less dependent on the US dollar and more conducive to trade growth, experts say.
They commented after China and Brazil – two major emerging economies and BRICS members – reportedly reached a deal to trade in their own currencies, ditching the US dollar as an intermediary.
The deal will enable China and Brazil to conduct their massive trade and financial transactions directly, exchanging the yuan for reais and vice versa, instead of going through the dollar, Agence France-Presse reported last Wednesday, citing the Brazilian government. The report comes amid the rising global use of the yuan.
China’s first cross-border yuan-settled liquefied natural gas transaction was completed last Tuesday, after the Export-Import Bank of China achieved the first yuan loan cooperation with the Saudi National Bank, the largest bank in Saudi Arabia, earlier this month.
Zhu Min, vice-chairman of the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, said the trend is underway that more economies are willing to use the yuan in clearing and payments, which is a “significant step” for the Chinese currency to internationalise and reflects the international community’s growing trust in it.
The financial sanctions adopted by the United States since the start of the Ukraine crisis have triggered a “crisis of confidence” for the dollar to some extent, boosting the global use of other currencies, including the yuan, Zhu said on the sidelines of the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference.
Zhou Maohua, a macroeconomic analyst at China Everbright Bank, said the use of local currencies in bilateral trade will be a win-win situation for China and Brazil, reducing the risk of exchange rate fluctuations facing foreign trade companies, and thus boosting trade growth.
In February, China and Brazil signed a memorandum of understanding on setting up yuan-clearing arrangements in Brazil, which is deemed by experts as a necessary infrastructure for the two economies to trade in local currencies.
The arrangements will help the two countries’ enterprises and financial institutions use the yuan for cross-border trade, and facilitate bilateral trade and investment, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said.
Financial infrastructure associated with the internationalisation of the yuan should be further improved, said Pan Gongsheng, vice-governor of the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, in early March.
The nation will further improve its trading and settlement system for cross-border investment and financing using the currency, Pan added.
“I think yuan internationalisation will likely accelerate,” said Hong Hao, chief economist at GROW Investment Group, a China-based global asset management company, underlining that the recent developments indicate that an alternative monetary system outside the US dollar hegemony is being developed. — China Daily/ANN
