Over 60% participants believe China’s global influence rising; world concern war, preserving biodiversity, energy & foods crises more than pandemic

 

People celebrate the 100th founding anniversary of the Communist Party of China, in Tiananmen Square in Beijing, on July 1, 2021. Photo: VCG

A survey released on Saturday at the 2023 Global Times Annual Conference showed that more than 62 percent of participants around the globe believe that China's influence is rising, double the number that believes the US' influence is rising, and more people expect that the China-US tension is likely to turn into "conflict" rather than "easing."

On shared global issues, concerns over inflation, war, energy and the food security crisis have surpassed concern over the COVID-19 pandemic, with analysts saying the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the following serious impact to the world economy have brought more urgent problems and impending dangers to the world, while most countries and people are showing less worry toward the impact brought by the pandemic, which is into its third year, as the virus has become less harmful.

The survey is released annually and conducted by the Global Times Research Center. This year, from October 29 to December 6, the survey which covered 30 questions related to China-US relations, global security and development, received more than 36,000 effective samples from 33 countries all over the world including China, the US, Russia, France, the UK, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Nigeria, Kenya, Pakistan, India, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Japan, Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia and South Korea.

Analysts said the survey reflects that the world welcomes and has strong confidence in China's development and Chinese modernization, even though the US and some of its allies are trying to spread the China threat theory, still more and more people are losing faith in the US and globalization that is dominated by US hegemony.

Which is more influential?

On the question "How has the US or China's international influence changed in the recent year?" more than 30 percent among all participants worldwide believe the US' influence is rising, while a similar number of participants believe the US' influence is declining. More than 62 percent believe China's influence is rising.

In countries like Kenya, South Africa, Nigeria, Austria, Poland and India, more people believe that the US' influence is rising rather than declining. In the US, 32 percent of participants believe their country's international influence is rising while another 32 percent believe the US' influence is declining, while 56 percent believe China's influence is rising.

"Judging from real national strength, the US still has the upper hand in terms of military, economy and science and technology, but if viewing 'international influence' from a perspective of being a leader to represent values shared by humanity, or the popularity and favorability among other countries, the US' influence is certainly decreasing," Shen Yi, a professor at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs of Fudan University told the Global Times.

Lü Xiang, an expert on international relations and research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times there are two main reasons why the majority of the participants worldwide believe China's influence is rising - first, China's sustainable and fast development as well as the powerful national strength are most convincing evidence; second, China's ideas for global development and security have been accepted well worldwide.

China's principles of not seeking hegemony and non-interference, as well as standing with developing countries forever, have been set very long ago. When China was a weak and undeveloped country, other countries did not really care about what China said, according to the expert. Today China has become a major world power with undoubted national strength, and more and more countries have found that China keeps its promise of not seeking hegemony, Lü said.

The China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative have continually brought benefits and development to China's partners worldwide, comparing the destructions and instabilities caused by the US hegemony around the globe, it's very natural for the countries around the globe to be more favorable on China's rising influence, Lü noted.

Although more people in African countries like Kenya, South Africa and Nigeria, as well as some European countries like Poland and Austria believe the US' influence is rising rather than declining, the vast majority in these countries (from 56 percent in Poland and 70 percent in Austria, to 78 percent in South Africa and 76 percent in Kenya) also firmly believe that China's influence is rising.

For China's rising international influence, Shen said it could be interpreted from two perspectives. One is that countries around the world do have a better impression about China and they hope China will play more important roles in the future as they have benefited from ties with China, or they want China to be more powerful to balance the negative impacts brought by US hegemony, Shen said.

But in some Western countries, especially the US' allies that follow Washington closely, the reason why they believe China's influence is rising is because of the long-existing hyping of the "China threat" theory in their countries, and they are afraid of the rising influence of China as US propaganda tries to shape an aggressive image of China around the globe, Shen noted.

"The US is not in its prime of life, no longer the protagonists of Hollywood action movies who are handsome, elegant, quick in action and reaction. Today's US is like 'a mafia boss in his later years who can barely walk but still holds particularly large power among the gangsters. Today, the US' position is largely determined by the system it built long ago," said Jin Canrong, associate dean of the School of International Studies at the Renmin University of China.

China-US relations

The survey also shows that the world is concerned about China-US tension. More of the participants in 19 countries, including the US, expect China-US relations to "maintain the status quo."

In China and the US, the survey results show that 45 percent of Chinese participants expect the China-US tension to ease, and 39 percent expect to maintain the status quo, but only 11 percent in the US expect the two sides will see an easing of tensions in the future, and 44 percent of American participants expect the status quo to remain unchanged.

Lü said China does not have an anti-US propaganda now, while all news reports about China-US relations are objectively introducing the facts and also trying to guide the public to understand the China-US relations based on good will. "But in America, the two major parties are trying their best to make China look like an enemy," and to use Sinophobia to cover their incompetence in internal affairs.

"If you read US mainstream media, you will see their reports are hyping and inciting conflict between the US and China every day, whether in politics or the economy, so US politicians and media should be held accountable for the worsening China-US ties that make the world concerned," Lü noted.

Among the samples collected from the 33 countries, 23 percent of them believe that the most likely cause of a potential conflict between China and the US is that "China imposes more retaliation against the US," about 22 percent believe it would be "troublemaking by Taiwan secessionists" and 19 percent consider it would be "the US strengthening its containment strategy against China."

Chinese analysts said it seems like the most realistic task for China and the US in the future is to keep managing their differences and competition to keep the current situation from losing control, and it would be very difficult to completely ease tensions in the short term.

The US elites should be aware of the danger of China-US conflict, especially on sensitive affairs like the Taiwan question, and to what extent the two major powers can avoid conflict depends on the US' attitude toward China. If the US stops its containment strategy, China does not need to retaliate the US at all, experts stressed.

Future globalization

The survey result also shows that the world is increasingly worried about the danger of conflict between the two biggest economies, while most participants around the globe believe that the world needs to find a new or better way to develop globalization. Chinese interviewees are very confident in "achieving satisfactory globalization in the next 10 years" and they are less concerned than other countries' participants on the problems like "war," "prices rising" and "food and energy crises."

Experts said this shows that China has protected Chinese people well when the world is suffering from the turbulence in recent years, so Chinese people have sensed less negative impacts of the current globalization. This also proves that China is qualified to share its wisdom and experiences to the world to overcome common challenges, and the people around the globe expect China to be more active in providing public goods to reform the problematic world order. 

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UN biodiversity deal adopted at COP15 at watershed moment

Pushing forward deal highlights China’s leading role in preserving biodiversity: experts

 

Chinese Minister of Ecology and Environment Huang Runqiu (centre-rignt), Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, David Ainsworth (centre-left), Executive Secretary of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, Elizabeth Maruma Mrema (2nd right) and Inger Andersen Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Program (right) during a plenary meeting at the 2022 UN Biodiversity Conference, known as COP 15, in Montreal, Canada on Monday. Photo: AFP

 Nearly 200 countries adopted a landmark deal set to reverse environmental destruction and preserve global biodiversity over the next decades at a marathon UN biodiversity summit on Monday.

The successful adoptionof the deal, under China's presidency, signals the country's leading role and commitment in converging and pushing forward global efforts in protecting the world's biodiversity at a watershed moment, said experts.

Now that the targets have been set, what matters most is whether nations follow through, said experts. The thorniest issue is still finance, and experts have called for this burden to fall largely on developed countries, which are equipped with technology and funds to help developing countries.

A UN biodiversity deal, entitled Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and aimed at reversing biodiversity loss and setting the world on the path to recovery, was adopted on Monday at the UN biodiversity conference, COP15, the Xinhua News Agency reported on Monday.

"The package is adopted," Chinese Environment Minister Huang Runqiu, the chair of the COP15 nature summit, declared at a late-night plenary session in Montreal as he struck his gavel, sparking loud applause from assembled delegates, the AFP reported.

The framework sets the target of effective conservation and management of at least 30 percent of the world's lands, inland waters, coastal areas and oceans, with emphasis on areas of particular importance for biodiversity and ecosystem functioning and services, according to the final release the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity sent to the Global Times on Monday.

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework prioritizes ecologically representative, well-connected and equitably governed systems of protected areas and other effective area-based conservation, recognizing indigenous and traditional territories and practices. Currently 17 percent and 10 percent of the world's terrestrial and marine areas respectively are under protection, according to the release.

It also called for the progressive phasing out or reform by 2030 of subsidies that harm biodiversity by at least $500 billion per year, while scaling up positive incentives for biodiversity's conservation and sustainable use. The scheme is set to raise international financial flows from developed to developing countries, in particular the least developed countries, small island developing states, and countries with economies in transition, to at least $20 billion per year by 2025, and to at least $30 billion per year by 2030.

After the adoption, EU Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevicius tweeted, "DEAL Tonight, we make history at#COP15. The Kunming-Montreal deal for Nature & people all over the world. 30% degraded ecosystems on land & sea to be restored by 2030;30% terrestrial & marine areas conserved & managed by 2030."

A statement the UN Development Programme (UNDP) sent to the Global Times on Monday said it welcomes the historic agreement reached at COP15."This agreement means people around the world can hope for real progress to halt biodiversity loss and protect and restore our lands and seas in a way that safeguards our planet and respects the rights of indigenous peoples and local communities," reads the statement.

The agreement reached today in Montreal is a significant breakthrough for biodiversity. It reflects never-before-seen recognition from countries at all income levels that biodiversity loss must be stopped through high-ambition changes to our society's relationship with nature and the way our global economy operates. It also reflects a determination from political leaders around the world to make this happen, Carlos Manuel Rodriguez, CEO and Chairperson of the Global Environment Facility, said in a statement sent to the Global Times on Monday.

After four years of negotiations and 12 years since the last biodiversity targets were agreed in Japan, the Chinese president ofCOP15put forward its recommendations for a final agreement after two weeks of intense negotiations among 196 countries.

Reaching a consensus on global environment issues, such as protecting biodiversity and climate change, were never easy, as nations' interests on those topics always conflicted, Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University, told the Global Times on Monday.

"That is why China put forward such a draft that had won wide applause among delegates from so many countries," said Lin. "This can be seen as a remarkable first step toward global biodiversity protection for the next decades, and this has highlighted China's leading role in this field."

Implementation matters

Speaking at a Saturday conference, Huang admitted that the most challenging remaining divergences lie in the financial mechanisms, resource mobilization and the goals of the framework. "Targeting these three problems, we have invited minister-level officials from Rwanda, Chile, Egypt, Germany, Norway and Canada, and have set up three coordination working groups," Huang said.

The final release said by 2030 at least $200 billion per year in domestic and international biodiversity-related funding from all sources - public and private are to be mobilized.

Developing countries previously pushed for half of that̶$100 billion per year̶to flow from wealthy countries to poorer nations, Reuters reported on Sunday.

Lin pointed out that the proposed targets show China's ambition and pragmatism in pushing forward a workable scheme, as setting the financial targets too high may backfire as many developed countries may refuse to pay.

"Setting up an agreement is for everyone to work on. Yet judging by developed countries' blustery promises on climate issues, whether they will pay the money on biodiversity remains questionable, so the final release lowered the target for developed countries to pay at least $20 billion per year by 2025," said Lin.

The developed countries still haven't fulfilled their pledge of providing $100 billion per year for developing countries to tackle climate damage.

Developing nations have limited capacity to achieve goals set at the current stage, thus the financing onus falls largely on those developed countries that have the technology and money to help, said Lin.

Huang Runqiusaid at a conference last week that the most important factor for a successful COP15 is reaching a framework of protecting biodiversity. What kind of framework is successful depends not only on how much we have agreed, but also how much we will realize, said Huang.

As presidency of the conference, China hopes that all the goals and promises are acceptable to all participants, and will endure the test of time, said the Chinese environment minister. He hoped that both developed and developing countries will feel they have fulfilled their promises by 2030, and only those goals and promises can be counted as a real success. 

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Renovating democracy and the China challenge

To break out of its paralysis, the West needs to take a hard look and address three key challenges

The rise of the populist variant in the West and the rapid ascent of China in the East have prompted a rethinking of how democratic systems work - or don't. The creation of new classes of winners and losers as a consequence of globalisation and digital capitalism is also challenging how we think about the social contract and how wealth is shared. -  Nathan Gardels and Nicolas Berggruen

 http://media.asiasociety.org/video/1901010-Berggruen-Renovating-Democracy.mp4

 

Police officers watch as protesters take part in a rally against Covid-19 vaccine mandates, in Santa Monica, California, on Aug 29, 2021.PHOTO: AFP

Rethinking Democracy, the Social Contract, and Globalization 

 

 
The rise of populism in the West, the rise of China in the East and the spread of peer-driven social media everywhere have stirred a rethinking of how democratic systems work—or don’t. The creation of new classes of winners and losers as a result of globalization and digital capitalism is also challenging how we think about the social contract and how wealth is shared.

The worst fear of America’s Founders—that democracy would empower demagogues—was realized in the 2016 US presidential election, when the ballot box unleashed some of the darkest forces in the body politic. Similarly, in Europe an anti-establishment political awakening of both populism and right-wing neonationalism is consigning the mainstream centrist political parties that once dominated the post–World War II political order to the margins.

Donald Trump’s election and the populist surge in Europe did not cause this crisis of governance. They are symptoms of the decay of democratic institutions across the West that, captured by the organized special interests of an insider establishment have failed to address the dislocations of globalization and the disruptions of rapid technological change. To add danger to decay, the fevered partisans of populism are throwing out the baby with the bathwater, assaulting the very integrity of institutional checks and balances that guarantee the enduring survival of republics. The revolt against a moribund political class has transmuted into a revolt against governance itself.

Because neither the stakeholders of the waning status quo nor the upstarts of populism have offered any effective, systemic solutions to what ails the West, protracted polarization and paralysis have set in. 

The Paradoxes of Governance in the Digital Age

These trials of the West are bound up with, and to a significant extent driven by, two related developments: the growing fragmentation of mass society into diverse tribes fortified by the participatory power of social media, and the advent of digital capitalism, which is divorcing productivity and wealth creation from employment and income.

We argue that these shifts present twin paradoxical challenges for governance.

First, the paradox of democracy in the age of peer-driven social networks is that, because there is more participation than ever before, never has the need been greater for countervailing practices and institutions to impartially establish facts, deliberate wise choices, mediate fair trade-offs, and forge consensus that can sustain long-term implementation of policies. Despite expectations that the Internet Age would create an informed public more capable of self-government than ever before in history, fake news, hate speech, and “alternative facts” have seriously degraded the civic discourse.

Second, the paradox of the political economy in the age of digital capitalism is that the more dynamic a perpetually innovating knowledge-driven economy is, the more robust a redefined safety net and opportunity web must be to cope with the steady disruption and gaps in wealth and power that will result.

To meet these challenges, we propose a novel approach to renovating democratic institutions that integrates new forms of direct participation into present practices of representative government while restoring to popular sovereignty the kind of deliberative ballast the American Founding Fathers thought so crucial to avoiding the suicide of republics. We further propose ways to spread wealth and opportunity fairly in a future in which intelligent machines are on track to displace labor, depress wages, and transform the nature of work to an unprecedented degree.

Where China Comes In

When populists rail against globalization that has undermined their standard of living through trade agreements, they mostly have China in mind. Few reflect that China was able to take maximum advantage of the post–Cold War US-led world order that promoted open trade and free markets precisely because of its consensus-driven and long-term-oriented one-party political system. China has shown the path to prosperity is not incompatible with authoritarian rule.

In this sense, China’s tenacious rise over the past three decades holds up a harsh mirror to an increasingly dysfunctional West. The current US president, who rode an anti-globalization wave to power, relishes battling his way through every twenty-four-hour news cycle by firing off barbed tweets at sundry foes. By contrast, China’s near-dictatorial leader has used his amassed clout to lay out a roadmap for the next thirty years.

If the price of political freedom is division and polarization, it comes at a steep opportunity cost. As the West—including Europe, riven now by populist and separatist movements—stalls in internal acrimony, China is boldly striding ahead. It has proactively set its sights on conquering the latest artificial intelligence technology, reviving the ancient Silk Road as “the next phase of globalization,” taking the lead on climate change, and shaping the next world order in its image. If the West does not hear this wake-up call loud and clear, it is destined to somnambulate into second-class status on the world stage.

This is not, of course, to suggest in any way that the West turn toward autocracy and authoritarianism. Rather, it is to say that unless democracies look beyond the short-term horizon of the next election cycle and find ways to reach a governing consensus, they will be left in the dust by the oncoming future. If the discourse continues to deteriorate into a contest over who dominates the viral memes of the moment, and if democracy comes to mean sanctifying the splintering of society into a plethora of special interests, partisan tribes, and endless acronymic identities instead of seeking common ground, there is little hope of competing successfully with a unified juggernaut like China. Waiting for China to stumble is a foolish fallback.

Unlike the Soviet Union at the time of the Sputnik challenge in the late 1950s and early 1960s, China today possesses an economic and technological prowess the Soviet Union never remotely approached. Whether in conflict or cooperation, China will be a large presence in our future.

It is in that context that we examine the strengths and weakness of China’s system as a spur to thinking through our own challenges. To turn the old Chinese saying toward ourselves, “The stones from hills yonder can polish jade at home.”

Taking Back Control

To set the frame for rethinking democracy and the political economy, we argue that the anxiety behind the populist reaction is rooted in the uncertainties posed by the great transformations under way, from the intrusions of globalization on how sovereign communities govern their affairs, to such rapid advances in technology as social media and robotics, to the increasingly multicultural composition of all societies. Change is so enormous that individuals and communities alike feel they are drowning in the swell of seemingly anonymous forces and want to “take back control” of their lives at a scale and stride they can manage. They crave the dignity of living in a society in which their identity matters and that attends to their concerns. Effectively aligning political practices and institutions so as to confront these challenges head-on will make the difference between a world falling apart and a world coming together.

Critics of globalization argue that nation-states and communities must retrieve the capacity to make decisions that reflect their way of life and maintain the integrity of their norms and institutions, decisions the maligned cosmopolitan caste has handed over to distant trade tribunals or other global institutions managed by strangers. Those decisions, they rightly say, ought to be made through “democratic deliberation” by sovereign peoples. Yet that neat logic ignores the reality of decay and dysfunction we have already noted. Therefore, “taking back control” must, first and foremost, mean renovating democratic practices and institutions themselves.

The Politics of Renovation

The most responsible course of change in modern societies is renovation.

Renovation is the point of equilibrium between creation and destruction, whereby what is valuable is saved and what is outmoded or dysfunctional is discarded. It entails a long march through society’s institutions at a pace of change our incremental natures can absorb. Renovation shepherds the new into the old, buffering the damage of dislocation that at first outweighs longer-term benefits. In the new age of perpetual disruption, renovation is the constant of governance. Its aim is transition through evolutionary stability, within societies and in relations among nation-states and global networks.

In this book, we propose three ways to think about how to renovate democracy, the social contract, and global interconnectivity in order to take back control:

• Empowering participation without populism by integrating social networks and direct democracy into the system through the establishment of new mediating institutions that complement representative government
  
  
  
• Reconfiguring the social contract to protect workers instead of jobs while spreading the wealth of digital capitalism by providing all citizens not only with the skills of the future but also with an equity share in “owning the robots.” We call this universal basic capital. The aim here is to enhance the skills and asserts of the less well-off in the first place – predistribution – as a complement to redistribution of wealth for public higher education or other public goods. The best way to fight inequality in the digital age is to spread the equity around.
  
  
• Harnessing globalization through “positive nationalism,” which means an allegiance to the values of an inclusive society instead of nationalistic incantation, albeit tempered by an understanding that open societies need defined borders. It also means dialing back the hyper-globalization of “one size fits all” global trade agreements to leave room for industrial policies that compensate for the dislocations of integrated global markets. To temper the deepening rivalry, even economic decoupling underway between the US and China, we call for a “partnership of rivals” on climate action. If there is not some area of common intents, all else will dwell in the shadow of distrust and lead to a new Cold War, the breakup of the world into geopolitical blocs and worse.

These proposals, of course, do not exhaust the answers to the panoply of daunting challenges we have raised. But they do suggest ways we might think about how to change present social and political arrangements for addressing those challenges. We do not insist that we are somehow the font of all wisdom but regard our endeavor as a point of departure that deepens and expands the debate. Without concrete propositions to criticize and amend, the discourse about change is only an airy exchange that fails to move the needle.

  Nicolas Berggruen and Nathan Gardels are the founders of the Berggruen Institute and the authors of Intelligent Governance for the 21st Century: A Middle Way between West and East (2012). Their latest work, Renovating Democracy: Governing in the Age of Globalization and Digital Capitalism (2019), is the first in a Berggruen Institute series on the “Great Transformations” published by the University of California Press (UC

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All countries, including Malaysia, losing in US-China trade war

“The US may settle into the malaise it found itself in, during the 1970s, before the present wave of globalization. It may survive but not thrive,’’ said Pong Teng Siew(pic) head of research, Inter-Pacific Securities.

THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) may have identified China as having more to lose in the US-China trade war, but the real loser is the world which has become economically more dependent on China.

The initial impact is seen in emerging economies, where a fresh slowdown in the world economy has been concentrated.

Asian economies, in particular, will feel the pressure from slowing Chinese demand for their exports.

Commodity producing countries will also suffer as prices decline in the wake of sluggish demand from China.

In 2016 and 2017, China’s share of world demand came to 59% of cement, 56% of nickel, 50% each of coal, copper and steel, aluminium (47%), cotton (33%), rice (31%), gold (27%), corn (23%) and oil (14%), said Visual Capitalist that publishes data using visual methods.

While the IMF, in its half-yearly World Economic Outlook, had upgraded its forecast of US growth this year from 2.3% to 2.6%, it had downgraded China from 6.3% to 6.2%.

Growth expectations for emerging and developing economies is now cut, since April, by 0.3 percentage points to 4.1% this year.

China’s economy grew at an annual pace of 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest in nearly three decades, while exports rose by just 0.1% in the first half.

Throughout the closely linked supply chains, these weak exports which registered the biggest drop to the US, also dampened demand for imports of components used in finished products.

Increasingly vulnerable to any slowdown in China, dubbed the Asian powerhouse, is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) economic bloc, for which China was the biggest trading partner.

Trade between Asean and China hit US$587.87bil last year.

As there are expectations for Chinese growth to slide between 5% to 6%, the rest of Asia which have prioritized trade with China, may have to look elsewhere for growth.

Making matters worse, there will be no more super stimulus programme such as the US$586bil unleased after the 2008 financial crisis, which had a positive impact across the export-oriented region.

“There are, therefore, concerted efforts to try and resolve the US-China trade war,’’ said Nor Zahidi Alias, associate director of research, Malaysian Rating Corp.

But Asean is already a recipient of trade investment diversions from China, and it is likely that Asian countries will ramp up efforts, including improvement in infrastructure and the ease of doing business, to attract foreign direct investments from the United States and China.

In the short term, China, being a large trading nation, may have more to lose but it is already transitioning away from being dependent on trade.

Consumption had contributed to more than 60% growth in China during 11 out of 16 quarters from January 2015 to December 2018, said CNBC, quoting a July report by McKinsey.

Indicating its increased self-reliance, China had exported only 9% of its output in 2017, compared with 17% in 2007, the study found.

The three groups with most exposure to China are the Asian economies within the global supply chain (South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam); the resource rich countries that export to China (Australia, Chile, Costa Rica, Ghana and South Africa); and emerging markets with investments from China (Egypt and Pakistan).

The trade war has complicated China’s efforts to find a balance between sustaining decent growth and tackling problems of high corporate debt and massive shadow banking risks.

As a result, these ‘highly dependent’ countries will probably have to suffer more.

In the end, nobody gains especially those that want to ‘hide’ behind tariff walls, de-globalise and move away from the current global interdependence and integration.

The effects of de-globalisation can be serious.

Think of a 1970s type of scenario, said to be the worst decade for the US economy which, since the Great Depression, had experienced the worst downturn from November 1973 to March 1975.

“The US may settle into the malaise it found itself in, during the 1970s, before the present wave of globalization. It may survive but not thrive,’’ said Pong Teng Siew head of research, Inter-Pacific Securities.

The current wave of globalization is said to feature modern technology and global democratic processes, with increased movement of capital and adoption of free trade.

Consumers will be the ultimate loser; they have to face a decade or more of higher prices (on US and retaliatory tariffs) with little or no compensating increases in employment and income.

The huge job cuts happening around the world, with talk nearer home of layoffs and headcount freezes in the Singapore semiconductor industry, should give us an indication of some potentially alarming consumer downtrends.

By Columnist Yap Leng Kuen, who reckons nobody should be under the illusion that he is the winner. The views expressed here are solely that of the writer.

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The US has revamped a trade deal with the Republic of Korea (ROK). The new version of the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement specifically aims to boost US auto sale, but its effectiveness remains in doubt. Will this deal set a new precedent for more so-called "US wins" in its multi-front trade war?

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China vs USA: Trade war

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Trump’s tariff policy has failed: analysts

After China slammed US President Donald Trump's accusation that China is meddling in the US midterm elections, analysts noted that Trump's behavior shows he has been shamed as his policy toward China didn't bring what he wants but has hurt his supporters.

If Trump discovers he is losing support due to China's trade retaliation, which has hurt the interests of his supporters, then he should blame himself and people who convinced him to impose additional tariffs against China, because it was his administration that started the frictions and led to China's retaliation, Chinese experts said on Thursday.

"We do not and will not interfere in any country's domestic affairs. We refuse to accept any unwarranted accusations against China," Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at the UN Security Council at once after Trump made his accusation.

Trump accused China during his remarks at the UN Security Council on Wednesday, saying, "Regrettably, we found that China has been attempting to interfere in our upcoming 2018 elections in November against my administration," CNN reported.

Trump offered scant details or evidence, which came during a session meant to focus on nonproliferation issues. He suggested the meddling attempts came as retribution for the budding trade war he has waged with Beijing, CNN's report said.

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs also responded to Trump's remarks on Thursday. "China has always stood by the principle of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs, and this is a Chinese diplomatic tradition, and the international community knows this," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang said at a routine press conference.

"The international community is also clear on which country is most interested in interfering with others' internal affairs," Geng noted. He urged the US to stop making groundless accusations and slandering China, and refrain from making wrong statements and actions that damage bilateral ties and the fundamental interests of the two peoples.

'Not what he wants'

"They do not want me or us to win because I am the first president ever to challenge China on trade," Trump said at the UN Security Council. "We are winning on trade. We are winning at every level. We don't want them to meddle or interfere in our upcoming elections."

However, Chinese analysts disagree with Trump's rhetoric.

"This shows that Trump has been ashamed into anger due to his unsuccessful policy on China," said Ni Feng, deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of American Studies.

"After a series of tariffs and provocations on the Taiwan question, and sanctions on the Chinese military department and personnel, China has continued to retaliate without any compromise and even refuses to negotiate with the US under the current circumstances. So this situation is not what he wants, which is why he is so angry and tries to make new accusations," Ni noted.

The US midterm elections are approaching, and the Republicans are facing a serious challenge and might lose the House after the elections. So Trump is trying to "pass the buck," said Diao Daming, an American studies expert and associate professor at Renmin University of China.

"Blaming China is a good option for him, and some radical Trump supporters will believe him regardless of the truth," Diao noted.

Due to the interdependency between China and the US, China's retaliation will definitely hurt US people's interests, including those of Trump supporters. But don't forget it was Trump who irrationally began the trade frictions with China, and China is forced to retaliate, Diao said.

"If the US people want to blame someone, they should blame their president. If Trump wants to blame someone for losing support or even the elections, he should blame himself and his advisers who urged him to start the trade row, rather than pass the buck to China," he noted.

A Chinese State-run English language newspaper inserted a four-page supplement in the Sunday edition of the Des Moines Register, an Iowa-based newspaper, to highlight the negative effects of the trade frictions Trump launched.

"China is actually placing propaganda ads in the Des Moines Register and other papers, and making them appear like news," Trump tweeted on Thursday.

"According to US laws, foreign media can cooperate with US media," and many other foreign media companies do the same thing. So, accusing this normal act as evidence of meddling in the elections is far-fetched and groundless, Geng said.

However, the US government, the Congress and the media have done a lot to interfere in China's internal affairs on Taiwan, Xinjiang and Tibet, Diao noted. "This is real interference in others' internal affairs." - Global Times By Yang Sheng


Related:

Trump's 'blame China' midterm strategy won't secure GOP victory

It would be best if Trump could assert a level of caution when speaking at UN headquarters. Fabricated stories and slogans designed to trick American voters will not have the same effect with UN members.

US trade war has no international support

As long as China keeps upholding its opening-up, foreign enterprises, including many US ones, will continue participating in the development of the China market. China should continue cooperating with the Western world and the US on climate change, anti-terrorism, nuclear nonproliferation, global poverty and stabilizing the financial situation. As long as China keeps its development momentum, the US is doomed to lose the trade war.

Sovereignty, equality should go hand in hand, if Trump really means it

There are positive aspects as Trump emphasized the idea of national sovereignty in his UN speech. Meanwhile, it is common sense that sovereignty will only play a positive role if it is pre-conditioned on equality, the basic principle everyone abides by.

China won't yield to US trade stick

We also hope that the Chinese public gets to know the causes and effects of the event and the steadiness of the Chinese government's policies. No matter how long China-US trade conflicts last, China is doing what it should. China is honest and principled and a major trade power with intensive strengths. No one can take us down.

US hysterical in blocking sci-tech exchanges

The US is anxious about its temporary gains and losses. One minute it wants Sino-US exchanges, but the next it worries China is taking advantage. Its relevant policies are bound to change all the time. Its latest decision is like the trade war. Washington's purpose is to drag Beijing down, but it will mostly hurt itself.

China must open up despite external risks

The road to solidarity will reflect the times and China still needs to accumulate experiences. But as long as all of China's policies aim at serving the people, the country's solidarity won't go wrong.
Source: Global Times | 2018/9/19 23:33:40

Lobbying Washington more challenging for Moon

History has proved that Pyongyang-Washington ties have a decisive effect on inter-Korean relations. In this sense, in the final analysis, Seoul needs to focus on lobbying Washington.




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Western dominance on the global stage coming to an end, entering the era of Chinese influence

China’s President Xi Jinping speaking at the World Economic Forum AP

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Western dominance on the global stage is coming to an end – we are now entering the era of Chinese influence

China’s economic relations with the Middle East are on a long-term upward trend. Beijing is the region’s largest foreign business partner, now surpassing the US in oil purchases. In the five years leading up to 2009 trade tripled, reaching $115bn

Donald Trump’s inauguration has been described as symbolising the end of the “American Century”. Historians may look back on 2016-17 as the years in which the two greatest forces sweeping the world – the anti-establishment backlash in the West, and the resurgence of Asia – combined to thrust China into a global leadership role. This was seen at Davos, in Beijing’s recent foray into the world’s most contentious conflict – Israel-Palestine – and most recently in Theresa May’s statement that the US and UK will never again invade sovereign countries to “remake the world in their own image”. This suggests that it might not be just a century of American dominance that’s ending, but half a millennia of Western pre-eminence.

President Xi Jinping’s call for the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital occurred just as the Trump White House began early talks over moving America’s embassy in Israel to the disputed city. This is part of China’s conversion of economic weight into diplomatic and geopolitical assertiveness in the Middle East over the last few years.

China’s economic relations with the region are on a long-term upward trend. Beijing is the region’s largest foreign business partner, now surpassing the US in oil purchases. In the five years leading up to 2009 trade tripled, reaching $115bn.

China has begun translating this into strategic influence. In 2008-2009, Beijing sent naval vessels to the region, an action referred to as its “biggest naval expedition since the 15th century”. China has embarked on strategic partnerships with traditional US allies like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. In addition to Saudi Arabia traditionally being China’s top source of oil, Beijing has convinced Riyadh to engage its “One Belt, One Road” initiative and attracted it to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. In 2016, the two countries unveiled a five-year plan for Saudi Arabia-China security cooperation. Riyadh also expressed interest in Chinese defence technology.

China’s growing footprint is in part possible due to some of the forces that brought President Trump and Prime Minister May to power. Firstly, Western publics are beyond fatigued by over a decade of war and intervention in the Middle East – much of which was supported by the same Republicans within Washington’s foreign policy establishment that had declared they wouldn’t work with Trump, and the same Labour MPs who sought to overthrow Jeremy Corbyn. Despite Trump’s tough-on-terror talk, the public gravitated to the same anti-regime change positions that were popular with Bernie Sanders supporters. May herself has observed this mood and adjusted her position accordingly. This is combined with a reduction of the US and Britain’s relative power in the region.

Additionally, Washington is less dependent on energy from the region. This is combined with Middle Eastern states themselves reaching out to diversify their strategic partnerships in an increasingly multipolar world. This includes US allies like the Gulf States, as well as those who feel threatened by the West, like Iran.

Beijing's Trump Cards

China has several advantages in the region. Firstly, Beijing mirrors Western public opinion by taking a non-interventionist approach to issues like democracy and human rights. This of course sits well with rulers in the Middle East. China has asserted its view that Middle Eastern countries and their people should be able to decide their own path to development in accordance with “national conditions”. In the past, President Xi has expressed China’s support for Saudi Arabia choosing its own development path. In Qatar, Beijing differentiated itself from the West, pledging to support Doha on issues of national independence, sovereignty, stability, security and territorial integrity. This was received well during a visit to Beijing by Qatar’s Emir who reportedly voiced his “appreciation for China’s impartial stand on international affairs”.

Secondly, unlike the US, China is not bound by well-known and entrenched alliances and animosities. It is obvious who the US supports in the Middle East and who its rivals are. With Beijing there is more flexibility. Shrewd foreign policy advisors in Beijing will be advising President Xi to use China’s burgeoning ties with the Gulf States and Israel to leverage relations with Iran and vice versa.

For instance, China has held positions on Syria and Libya inimical to those of its new partners in the Gulf. In addition to Damascus being a long-time buyer of weapons from China, Beijing has also made clear its support for Moscow’s intervention. China and Russia have consistently worked together to provide diplomatic protection to the Syrian government via vetoes at the UN. Some sources also reported Chinese military advisers being dispatched to Syria and Beijing providing training support to the Syrian army.

While maintaining its tendency to take a soft-spoken approach, Beijing hosted both senior Assad government and opposition figures. In a purposely symbolic move, during the China visit, the Syrian Foreign Minister confirmed the government’s willingness to participate in the peace process. Beyond Middle Eastern states, China’s position on Syria provides it negotiating power with both the West and Russia. Similarly, Beijing’s Palestine announcement allows it to extract more from Israel.

China’s Interests

China primarily sees the region as a source of energy. It is also a continuation of the trade routes it seeks to secure from East Asia, through the Indian Ocean, to the Middle East, Africa and Europe.

The ability to influence the Middle East is also important to great/rising powers like America, China and India in order to disrupt and deny energy to potential adversaries. Greater Chinese involvement will give Beijing some potential leverage over the energy supplies of adversaries like Japan, and potential competitors like India. Beijing’s pursuit of closer ties with Middle Eastern states as part of its “Maritime Silk Road” initiative adds to India’s fears of encirclement by a Chinese “string of pearls”.

Beijing also prioritises stability in the region more consistently than Washington. Recent conflicts cost China. The toppling of Gaddafi in Libya led to losses in energy investments, infrastructure and equipment, as well as evacuation costs. With regard to Syria, Beijing had to abandon its oil investments in 2013 due to the war.

As one of the main theatres for geopolitical competition between great powers, China’s growing strategic role in the Middle East is another step toward what many in the country see as its own “manifest destiny”. This rising Asian power, free of colonial baggage in the region, adds a new ingredient that could help untangle seemingly intractable issues like Israel-Palestine. Furthermore, with its steadfast principle of respecting sovereignty, China’s increasingly loud and distinctive voice in the Middle East may indeed be the final nail in the coffin of Western interventionism.

Sources: Dr Kadira Pethiyagoda is a visiting fellow with the Brookings Institution researching Asia-Middle East relations - independent.co.uk

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