Pages

Thursday, July 17, 2014

BRICS establish Development Bank US$100bil in Shanghai to cut out Western dominance


China contributes $41 bln to contingent reserve

The BRICS countries are a step closer to having a bigger say in the world’s financial system, after ...

Xi: BRICS nations´ development important globally

Chinese President Xi Jinping has delivered a keynote speech, mapping out the direction for cooperati...

New bank underscores BRICS unity

The BRICS New Development Bank was established Tuesday with an initial capital of $50 billion shared equally by the five BRICS countries. The Contingent Reserve Arrangement was also launched with an initial fund of $100 billion. The development bank's headquarters will be in Shanghai. Its first president will be from India, the first chair of the board of directors from Brazil and the first chair of the board of governors from Russia. The bank will have an African regional branch in South Africa.

The idea of a BRICS bank was first mooted by India. The five countries reached a consensus at last year's BRICS summit and the bank has been launched this year. The fast pace and its implications have created waves in the West. This landmark event shows that BRICS countries have turned from a forum to an entity and may signal a new beginning for global strategic trends.

The five emerging powers from four continents have formed a financial group. Prior to that, the world's financial power was held firmly by Americans and Europeans.

Without exception, Western opinions have all been centered on the deep-rooted discrepancies among the five BRICS nations. They didn't expect that the wishes and ability of the five countries to overcome these discrepancies were so strong.

Has the world's financial pattern changed? We cannot say this yet, but the old pattern in which the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund dominated the field will face competition from now on.

The BRICS bank not only forms a new financing channel, but also will display the democracy and equality that the old financial pattern lacks most.

Western opinions have tried to drive a wedge among BRICS countries and have speculated about China's hegemonic ambition to dominate the institution. The successful launch of the bank has dealt a heavy blow to them.

Western elites have expressed opinions on emerging countries with a biased mentality, which makes their views detached from reality.

That Shanghai is chosen to site the bank headquarters is good news. Shanghai is becoming a new geographic and financial center in the 21st century. It unites the development momentum of the whole of China and is a major international metropolis in the Western Pacific. It is bound to be an outstanding host city.

On the other hand, the opening of the BRICS bank will provide a new driving force for Shanghai.

China's reform and opening-up in the past 30 years have created huge potentials for this city, while the stage where it can display its strength is relatively small. The BRICS bank is a timely opportunity which will broaden the scope of Shanghai and boost its influence.

China is the most outstanding country among all the emerging powers. The launch of the BRICS bank with Shanghai as its headquarters is a testament to China's national strength, diplomatic capabilities and strategic position. The confidence of all the emerging countries will be boosted. The five nations used to be earthen BRICS, and with the development bank, they will truly become gold BRICS.

Source:Global Times Published: 2014-7-17

BRICS Agree on $50 Billion Bank With Something for Everyone;

Photographer: Nelson Almeida/AFP/Getty Images
Leaders of the five BRICS nations agreed on the structure of a $50 billion development bank by granting China its headquarters and India its first rotating presidency. Brazil, Russia and South Africa were also granted posts or units in the new bank.

The leaders also formalized the creation of a $100 billion currency exchange reserve, which member states can tap in case of balance of payment crises, according to a statement issued at a summit in Fortaleza, Brazil.

Both initiatives, which require legislative approval, are designed to provide an alternative to financing from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, where BRICS countries have been seeking more say. The measures coincide with a slowing of economic growth in the five countries to about 5.4 percent this year from 10.7 percent in 2007, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

“The BRICS are gaining political weight and demonstrating their role in the international arena,” Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff said after a signing ceremony.

Until the eve of the summit, India and South Africa had vied with China to host the headquarters of the bank, dubbed the New Development Bank. The administration of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave in after it was reminded that his country’s previous administration had agreed to Shanghai as the bank’s headquarter, according to an Indian official, who requested not to be named because the talks were not public.

Shared Out

Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told reporters that the BRICS decided in favor of Shanghai because the city offers better infrastructure, opportunities to capture private funding, and is home to more investors than the competitors.

Each member country got something out of the deal. The first chairperson of the Board of Governors will be from Russia, while the first chairperson of the Board of Directors will be Brazilian. South Africa will establish an African regional center for the bank, which may not get off the ground for another two years, according to Carlos Cozendey, secretary for international affairs at Brazil’s Finance Ministry.

Unlike the IMF and World Bank, which are managed by Europeans and Americans, the BRICS bank “is quite democratic,” Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega told reporters. 

Each member country has the right to withdraw different amounts from the joint currency reserves, according to a statement from Brazil’s central bank. China can withdraw half the amount it earmarks or $20.5 billion. Brazil, Russia, and India may withdraw the same amount they commit or $18 billion, while South Africa can tap $10 billion, twice its contribution.

“It’s a type of insurance policy, speculators looking for weaker countries without backup, will run because those countries will have sufficient solidity to face a currency problem,” said Mantega.

Aiding Development

The BRICS have evolved from the original term coined in 2001 by then Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Jim O’Neill to describe the growing weight of the largest emerging markets in the global economy. In 2011, South Africa joined to give the BRICS a broader geographic representation.

Even with slowing economic growth in BRICS countries, there are still plenty of opportunities for business, and the newly-created development bank will help those opportunities become reality, said Jorge Gerdau Johannpeter, chairman of Brazilian steelmaker Gerdau SA.

“The bigger the financing possibilities, the bigger the chances of implementing projects,” Gerdau told reporters at the summit.

The biggest winner among the BRICS and its newly created bank may be South Africa, as it stands to gain financial expertise, investment and trade, said Colin Coleman, the Johannesburg-based head of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in sub-Saharan Africa, who attended the BRICS Business Council meeting.

Greatest Benefit

“Arguably we have the greatest amount to benefit because we’re partnering diplomatically and otherwise with some of the world’s most important emerging-market economies,” Coleman said in a phone interview.

While BRICS trade ministers in a joint communique yesterday said that member countries stood by the World Trade Organization’s Bali agreement, Brazil’s Trade Minister Mauro Borges said he understood India had certain concerns about its implementation and that the BRICS countries didn’t intend to forge a common stance on the issue.

BRICS share of world exports rose to 16 percent in 2011, from 8 percent in 2001.

Russia also proposed at the summit in the northeastern coastal city of Fortaleza the creation of an Infrastructure Fund during the summit, Kirill Dmitriev, chief executive officer of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, told reporters today. The fund could start up as early as next year, he said

.- Bloomberg


Related:

  Video: Crossover: BRICS Bank to create more robust growth

Video: Studio interview: BRICS bank diversifies global finances


The West should not take a confrontational attitude toward the rise of the BRICS

How can the developing and developed countries coexist with each other? The answer relates to the reconstruction of the world order in 21st century.

Malaysian banks raise Base Lending Rate (BLR) or Base Financing Rate (BFR) to 6.85% pa

In tandem: Public Bank, Hong Leong Bank and Maybank are among banks which have confirmed that they have either adjusted or will be adjusting to the new rates.

A number of banks raise their base lending rates (BLR) and base financing rates (BFR) in tandem with Bank Negara’s announcement to raise the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points (bps) from 3% to 3.25% effective yesterday, today and tomorrow.

As a result, the BLR and BFR has adjusted to 6.85% from 6.6% per annum previously.

The banks that have confirmed that the new rates effective from 16 July 2014 include Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank), Hong Leong Bank Bhd (HLBB), CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, Public Bank Bhd, Alliance Financial Group Bhd and OCBC Malaysia, HSBC Bank Malaysia; effective 17 July 2014 include Citibank, Standard Chartered Bank;  effective 18 July 2014: UOB

It is understood that some banks may announce the interest rate revision on a different date, as they are still considering the quantum of the deposit rates, which will impact their earnings eventually.

Bank Simpanan Nasional senior vice-president and head of distribution Akhsan Zaini told StarBiz: “ We are still studying the impact of the rate hike on our bank before we announce the adjustment next week, tentatively.”

He also said the bank had yet to decide on how much it would adjust for its deposit rates

CIMB Research expects the rate hike to enhance banks’ earnings by 1% to 2%, as their net interest margins (NIM) widen.

Maybank Investment Bank Research, on the other hand, anticipates NIM growth to be short-lived due to price competition.

The research unit had said in an earlier report: “Our forecasts already assume a 50-bps rate hike in 2014, and as a result, we are looking at a marginal four-bps aggregate NIM improvement in 2015 versus a seven-bps contraction in 2014.”

Some banks have also announced the revision of their deposit rates, but the quantum varies from one lender to another as well as the deposit tenure.

Among others, Maybank’s deposit rates will be revised upwards by up to 15 bps.

HLBB and Hong Leong Islamic Bank Bhd (HLISB) will increase their fixed-deposit and Term Deposit-I rates by up to 25 bps.

Following the revision, HLBB and HLISB’s new deposit rates for one, six and 12 months would be 3.05%, 3.2% and 3.3%, respectively.

Hong Leong Banking Group’s managing director Tan Kong Khoon said the group would continue to work closely with its customers to address their financing and savings needs. Meanwhile, OCBC Bank (M) Bhd and OCBC Al-Amin Bank Bhd will be increasing their fixed-deposit and General Investment Account-i rates respectively by up to 20 bps, depending on tenures effective July 21.

In a statement, Maybank said: “The last revision in Maybank’s BLR and Maybank Islamic’s BFR was on May 11, 2011 when they were revised from 6.3% to 6.6% per annum.”

OCBC Bank’s mortgage lending rate, the alternative to using BLR for home loans, will also increase, to 5.7% compared with 5.45% previously.

JP Morgan Research noted that it was cautious on banks, as the combination of rate hikes and subsidy rationalisation would test the credit risk management of Malaysia’s consumer-led loan growth in the past five years.

It preferred liquid banks and upgraded HLBB and Maybank to “overweight” from “neutral”.

- By Ng Bei Shan/The Star/Asia News Network

Related post: 

Bank Negara says going forward, the over all growth momentum is expected to be sustained. We are actually quite surprised that Bank...

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Big bosses are watching you !

Tracking device: Asia Insight employee Steven Li conducting a survey near Bugis Junction. He is using a tablet which has mobile data collection software, allowing his employers to track his work patterns. - The Straits Times / Asia News Network

BIG bosses are watching. Firms are keeping a closer eye on their employees’ punctuality and efficiency – thanks, or no thanks, to technology.

Larger companies are investing in advanced software in mobile devices that can detect location – and record the time taken to complete tasks.

And smaller firms have found that run-of-the-mill but inexpensive instant messaging apps can also be used to monitor workers. Employees of local property valuation firm GSK Global, for example, when out at meetings are told to send a picture of the venue to their departments’ WhatsApp group chat within 15 minutes of the designated time. Those who are consistently late will get their bonuses docked.

Bosses say they are not spying on their staff. Rather, they want to improve efficiency.

GSK Global boss Eric Tan said: “I want my staff to be punctual so they can be done with work earlier and go home by 8pm.”

Market research consultancy Asia Insight chief executive Pearly Tan agrees.

Her firm engaged local tech start-up Epsilon Mobile earlier this year to develop mobile data collection software that records the time employees take to interview people and co­m­plete surveys, among other things.

It costs “a few hundred thousand” but Tan said it was worth it. The software helps the company spot patterns in the way the surveyors work, and also intervenes to reduce errors and boost productivity.

Her firm plans to use the software, which is enabled with Global Positioning System (GPS), to detect its employees’ location.

Epsilon Mobile boss William Vo said besides market researchers, organisations such as voluntary welfare groups and chain restaurants had also shown interest in his data collection software.

Similarly, tech company FPT Asia Pacific provides a few fast-moving consumer goods firms with GPS-enabled data collection software to monitor roving sales staff.

While most surveillance techno­logy now focuses on tracking location and time, firms may soon be able to use it to monitor their wor­kers’ interactions with customers.

Local tech company FXMedia is in talks with some retailer groups to roll out a visitor analysis system in stores. The software detects the number of customers and consu­mers’ emotions using webcams.

However, bosses admit there are some drawbacks to using workplace surveillance technology; workers face extra stress and loss of privacy. — The Straits Times / Asia News Network

Related article:

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Stem education for life to reach new heights


It is necessary for the nation to embrace Stem education in order to reach new heights.

IT is imperative that schools and educational institutions do their part to emphasise the importance of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (Stem) to meet the country’s educational objectives for future growth and development and to meet the nation’s 2020 vision.

Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman vice president (Internationalisation and Academic Development) Prof Dr Ewe Hong Tat

This is especially after Malaysia was ranked in the bottom third of 74 participating countries, in the Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa) below the international and OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) average.

It is with this in mind that Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (UTAR ) is taking the initiative to promote and create awareness on the importance of Stem education among students and the community.

In the series of articles from UTAR, Part 1 and Part 2 (STEM Education for life, part 2) introduces Stem and why such education is necessary for the nation’s development and what the University is doing to promote it.

Engineering gains

During the turn of the century, the National Academy of Engineering of USA (http://www.nae.edu/) did a detailed study and listed the top 20 engineering achievements of the 20th century (www.greatachievements.org) that changed the world.

Of these the prominent ones were computers, aviation, the Internet, air-conditioning and refrigeration, highways, health technologies, laser and fibre optics, water supply and distribution; among many others. Consumers used them daily without realising that these were the results of engineering research and innovation that propelled the world forward.

Therefore, for a nation to continue to develop and grow, it is important to promote and use Stem education as the foundation and propeller of growth.

After all, it is through Stem education that design, discovery and inventions that bring forth life-changing growth and development, have been introduced.

In the 21st century, new innovations have emerged such as renewable energy and resources, Internet of Things (IoT), advanced materials and biotechnology which need new talents to continue to drive growth.

Without a strong foundation in Stem education, these talents will not be groomed to excel.

In the Malaysia Education Blueprint 2013 – 2025 (Chapter 3), Malaysia’s performance in the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (Timss) Eighth Grade Mathematics and Science against other countries over three cycles (1999, 2003, 2007), showed that in 2007, there was a marked downturn in both Mathematics and Science scores. In 2003, Malaysia obtained 10th position out of 45 countries for Mathematics and 20th position out of 45 countries for Science.

In 2007, Malaysia obtained 20th position out of 48 countries for Mathematics and 21st position out of 48 countries for Science, thus indicating a declining performance in students’ scores for both subjects.

Malaysia participated in the Pisa assessment for the first time in the Pisa 2009 + exercise and was ranked in the bottom third for Reading, Mathematics and Science, well below the International and OECD average in all the three areas, lower than Thailand.

Therefore, there is a great need to raise the interest and standards in Stem among students, educationists and policy makers in our country to ensure that we remain competitive and relevant in the world market in future.

The National Science Foundation, a leading authority in scientific research and funding in the United States, defines Stem in a broader definition which includes subjects in the fields of engineering, chemistry, computer and information technology science, geosciences, life sciences, mathematical sciences, physics and astronomy, and social sciences (which includes anthropology, economics, psychology and sociology), Stem Education and learning research.

As indicated in the education blueprint, the case for increased emphasis on Stem education would need several initiatives and steps to be taken across schools in the country.

It is imperative that we need to develop strong fundamentals in Stem starting from primary schools and to create and sustain interests in this discipline.

For a start, it would be a good idea to allow a lot more experiments and hands-on projects in Stem subjects.

Experiential learning 

If we want to promote a society with higher order thinking skills, the exam-oriented paper and format-based school exams need to be complemented with more practical and experiential learning.

Learning science subjects through a textbook is nothing compared to the trial and discovery methods of science experiments.

Through the process of experimenting, trials and discovery, students think, analyse and deduce before coming to a solution; all these thinking processes help to develop higher order thinking.

Students need to learn actively to seek creative solutions and applications and to be inquisitive to foster inventions.

The recent announcement by the Education Ministry to reintroduce practical exams for the SPM science subjects of Physics, Chemistry, Biology and Additional Science in 2015, is a move in the right direction.

In addition, the media radio could play a bigger role in promoting Stem.

There could be more focus on Stem and related topics for schoolchildren and even the community, if more films and documentaries on Stem were shown, and how it is important for national growth.

Simple videos could be made on how our everyday resources of food, water, air and energy require qualified engineers, agriculturists, scientists and more to ensure quality, production, convenience and sustainability for the future.

The influence of the internet is pervasive and with Wi-Fi and broadband services increasingly available in many homes and public places, more information can be made available and accessed online.

To promote interest in Stem, perhaps students could be guided towards self-directed learning after school.

Several educational websites support such learning. Massive Open Online Courses (Mooc) are widely available through the web with unlimited participation and many websites provide course materials such as videos, readings and problem-solving papers, while others have more interactive user forums that allow discussions and networking to build a community for students, teachers, professors, and tutors to seek support.

Among the more reliable websites for online courses for students are three more prominent ones such as www.edx.org, www.khanacademy.org and www.coursera.org

EdX offers free online classes and Mooc from the world’s best universities such as Harvard University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the Australian National University and the University of California, Berkeley on subject contents including Computer Science, Mathematics, Sciences, Medicine and more than 200 courses that students could take online and be awarded a certificate.

The support from these reputable universities gives credibility to the courses and is ideal for students at home.

Khan Academy also provides free online materials and resources in mathematics, biology, chemistry, physics and even finance and history; mostly of secondary school level that are easily available to students, teachers and anyone interested in learning about simple educational topics which makes learning more fun.

Another website worth looking up is www.coursera.org which provides free online classes from more than 80 top universities (such as Stanford University, Yale University and Princeton University) and organisations around the world on topics covering a wide range of disciplines including science, engineering, medicine and social sciences.

A host of varied educational information is available on the web and most are on Stem subjects and topics that are taught in our schools.

Many of the topics in these websites also talk about scientific principles which are applied to everyday things like electrical appliances, transportation, automobiles, food cultivation and processing which are not only educational but also thought-provoking.

The colours and visuals used, the video and notes are all captivating; making learning so much more fun and engaging.

Even the teaching of simple Mathematics in schools is presented methodically and simply with good visuals and commentary.

The advantage of these online courses is that students canrepeat any part as often as they like until they get it right.

These online courses could perhaps be introduced as supplementary learning to students who can log on after school to learn more and cultivate their interests in Stem.

Perhaps parents and teachers alike can also guide students which will be more informative and educational than Facebook and Twitter.

htewe August 2011.jpgContributed by Prof Dr Ewe Hong Tat The Star/Asia News Network

The writer, an AAET Fellow, is the vice-president of the Internationalisation and Academic Development, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (UTAR). This article is the first of a two-part series on Stem Education.
Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (UTAR)
Dr. Ewe Hong Tat
QUALIFICATION 
BEng(Hons)(Mal), S.M. (MIT), PhD(MMU)
POSITION 
Vice President (Internationalisation and Academic Development)
Professor, Faculty of Engineering and Science (FES)
RESEARCH
INTERESTS 
Microwave Remote Sensing, Applied Electromagnetics, Satellite Image Processing, Sensing Network and Intelligent Systems
 CONTACT 
ADDRESS 
Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (Petaling Jaya Campus),
No. 9, Jalan Bersatu 13/4,
46200 Petaling Jaya, Selangor, MALAYSIA.
 PHONE 
+(60)-3-7958-2628 ext 7152
FAX 
+(60)-3-7956-1923
 E-MAIL 
eweht@utar.edu.my

HT Ewe received his First Class Honours Bachelor of Engineering degree in Electrical Engineering from University of Malaya, Malaysia in 1992, and S.M. (Master of Science) degree in EECS (Electrical Engineering and Computer Science) from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, U.S.A. in 1994. He obtained his PhD degree from Faculty of Engineering, Multimedia University, Malaysia in 1999. From September 1994 to April 1997, he was with the Electrical Engineering Department, University of Malaya (Malaysia). In May 1997, he joined Multimedia University (Malaysia) in Melaka Campus and was transferred to the Cyberjaya Campus in January 2000 and worked there until Aug 2008. In Sep 2008, he joined Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (UTAR) and is currently a Professor in the Faculty of Engineering and Science (FES).


 
Related posts:

 It pays to be stern 

 Hats off to a strict father
 

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Is timing right for Bank Negara Malaysia interest rate increased now!?

Bank Negara says going forward, the over all growth momentum is expected to be sustained.



We are actually quite surprised that Bank Negara chose to make this measure this month!

AFTER keeping interest rates low for the past three years to support economic growth, Bank Negara has finally decided that it is the time to “normalise” interest rates.

In response to firm growth prospects and expecting inflationary pressure to continue, the benchmark overnight policy rate (OPR) was raised by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25% on Thursday.

This is the first hike since May 2011 and the reasons, although not spelled out, were broadly hinted towards containing inflation and curbing rising household debt.

Most economists are unperturbed with the move, as the central bank has hinted of an imminent hike in OPR after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in May.

According to a Bloomberg survey, 15 out of 21 economists estimated a hike.

“Amid firm growth prospects and with inflation remaining above its long-run average, the MPC decided to adjust the degree of monetary accommodation,” Bank Negara says in a statement.

The economy grew by 6.2% year-on-year in the first quarter with private consumption up 7.1% and private investment expanding by 14.1%.

The prolonged period of low interest rates in Malaysia has been supportive on the domestic economy, hence the recent rate hike has sparked the question whether the time is right for a hike amid a recovery in the global economy.

“Despite higher costs of living, stable income growth and favourable labour-market conditions are expected to buoy private consumption growth,” said CIMB Research in a report.

It expects the country’s economic growth to increase to 5.5% this year and 5.2% in 2015.

Bank Negara remained positive on Malaysia’s growth outlook, riding on the back of recovery in exports, robust investment activity and anchored by private consumption.

Financial imbalances

“Going forward, the overall growth momentum is expected to be sustained.

“Exports will continue to benefit from the recovery in the advanced economies and from regional demand. Investment activity is projected to remain robust, led by the private sector,” says Bank Negara.

There are a lot of factors that could derail the recovery in the world’s economy, including a risk in China’s growth slowing and a slower recovery in Europe and the United States.

“We are actually quite surprised that Bank Negara chose to make this measure this month. The fact that the latest normalisation drive would push the ringgit higher and that puzzles us as export momentum may decelerate in the next few months due to waning competitiveness,” says M&A Securities.

Nonetheless, it believes the economy is capable of absorbing the adjustment.

Prior to the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis, Malaysia’s OPR stood at 3.5%. The country’s OPR was subsequently cut down to as low as 2% to support the domestic economy during the height of the global downturn in early 2009 before being raised gradually to the present level.

Between November 2008 and February 2009, Bank Negara had cut the OPR by 175 basis points in response to the global economic crisis. “The rise in OPR will likely to improve Malaysia’s attractiveness amongst foreign investors, leading a stronger capital inflows, lower bond yields and appreciating ringgit,” says AllianceDBS Research chief economist Manokaran Mottain in a report.

He says that since the previous MPC meeting in May, the market has been influenced by this expectation.

Year-to-date, the ringgit had rallied to RM3.172 per US dollar on July 9, registering a 2.06% gain. However, at the close yesterday, the ringgit closed lower at RM3.21 against the greenback.

The central bank also highlights that the increase in the OPR is to ease the risk of financial imbalances, which may effect the economy’s growth prospect.

“At the new level of the OPR, the stance of the monetary policy remains supportive of the economy,” Bank Negara says.

The OPR is an overnight interest rate set by Bank Negara. It is the interest rate at which a bank lends to another bank.

A rate hike would have an impact on businesses and consumers, as changes in the OPR would be passed on through changes in the base lending rate (BLR).

Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz was reported as saying that signs of financial imbalances would also factor into policy decisions, because a prolonged period of accommodation could encourage investors to misprice risk and misallocate resources.

“Higher interest rates should help to ensure a positive real rate of return for deposit savings and deter households from turning to riskier investments,” says CIMB Research.

The low interest rate environment has resulted in rising household debt level, which reached a record of 86.8% of gross domestic product at the end of last year.

“Although the increase in the OPR will likely have some impact on consumer spending and business activities, it will help to moderate the increase in prices,” says RHB Research Institute.

It expects inflation to moderate but to remain high, hovering above 3%.

Most economists are expecting OPR to remain unchanged at 3.25% for the rest of the year, although price pressures are likely to remain.

They say Bank Negara may resume its interest rate normalisation only next year.

“The price pressure is likely to remain, in view of further subsidy rationalisation (another round of fuel-price hike this year),” CIMB Research says.

Muted impact

“Another 25bps hike will crimp domestic demand,” Manokaran opines, adding that there are other measures that may be taken if household debt continues to grow at a worrying pace.

Malaysia is the first country in the South-East Asia to increase its benchmark rate on the back of improve confidence in exports growth and robust investment activity.

According to CIMB Research, Malaysia’s equity market has already priced in an interest rate hike following the May MPC meeting.

The research house says while the is negative for equities, the impact on the stock market should be muted as the increase is minimal.

“Rate hikes are negative for cyclical sectors such as property and auto, as well as consumer stocks due to lower disposable income,” it says.

In the property sector, rising interest rates would increase mortgage payment and reduce affordability.

However, CIMB opines that the impact of a gradual rise in interest rates will be mitigated as the key drivers of property demand are the overall economy and the stock market.

“But the overall impact should be muted as net gearing for corporate Malaysia is less than 10%,” it adds.

CIMB notes that the banking sector will benefit from the rate hike due to a positive re-pricing gap between lending and deposit rates.

“We estimate that a 25bps rise in OPR could enhance banks’ earnings by 1% to 2%.

“This would outweigh any slowdown in loan growth in an environment of higher interest rates, while asset quality is expected to be unaffected,” it says.

Contributed by Intan Farhana Zainul/The Star/Asia News Network

No justification for interest rate hike: Kenanga

Investment bank research head cites expectations of softer economic growth in H2

 
Adib Rawi Yahya/theSun

KUALA LUMPUR: Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd has taken the contrarian view and believes that an interest rate hike is unlikely to materialise today, saying that it would be unjustified given jittery economic fundamentals that would not be able to take such a hike.

Most analysts opine that Bank Negara is likely to raise the overnight policy rate (OPR) for the first time since May 2011 today, even though they tend to differ on the quantum of increase, between 25 basis points (bps) and 50 bps. The OPR currently stands at 3%.

Bank Negara is scheduled to hold its latest monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting this evening.

Kenanga Investment Bank deputy head of research Wan Suhaimie Saidie (pix) opined that this is not the right time to raise interest rate as economic growth is expected to trend lower in the second half compared with the first half of the year.

"Due to softer external demand and slow down in other parts of the world, I don't think Bank Negara will raise interest rate, unless they revise the gross domestic product (GDP) higher," he told a media briefing here yesterday.

Wan Suhaimie said as Malaysia is an open economy, the interest rate outlook will be externally dependent, whereby it has been observed that Bank Negara would shift towards tightening mode when the global manufacturing PMI breaches 54.0.

"However, it may take at least another three to six months before the index breaches 54.0," he said, adding that there is little reason for Bank Negara to raise the OPR for the rest of the year.

Wan Suhaimie believes with the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) next year, the local economy may even slow down for at least two quarters, making the case for an interest hike far from compelling.

Kenanga expects GDP in the first half to be close to 6%, while second half is projected to average by 5.2%, with a full year growth rate of 5.5%.

Wan Suhaimie said instead of raising the interest rate, Bank Negara could take additional macroprudential measures to address imbalances in the financial system, such as reducing the loan-to-value ratio and debt-to-income ratio.

According to data compiled by Kenanga, Bank Negara is one of the most conservative central banks in the world, with only 10 rate adjustments made over the past 10 years.

M&A Securities concurred with Kenanga on the unlikelihood of a hike in OPR today albeit for a different reason.

"Policy decisions would need to get the cabinet endorsement first. Being a caring government that would like to avoid political backlash, we think that the government would prefer Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to defer that to the September MPC meeting," it said in an economic report yesterday.

It explained that on the back of rising cost of living and the upcoming stress of the goods and services tax, the last thing BNM and hence, the government would want to see is the adjustment be a burden the people.

"As 55% to 60% of Malaysian population, as in the Muslims would be observing the month of Ramadan of which their spending would increase, the government would risk its reputation if it proceeds with a policy hike. There is a small chance that the government would execute this in our opinion," said M&A analyst Rosnani Rasul.

It said impact to the ringgit would also be more conducive if policy rates get adjusted in September and that an adjustment of 25 bps would suffice.

With no hike in the OPR, volatility in the market will continue and is likely to see the ringgit fall back to 3.20 to 3.30, Wan Suhaimie opined.

The ringgit has been rising lately, surging to as high as 3.1860 early this month in anticipation of an interest rate hike.

Contributed by Lee Weng Khuen sunbiz@thesundaily.com 10 July 2014

Related articles: