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Saturday, May 25, 2013

Currency Wars: the Unloved Dollar Standard from Bretton Woods to the Rise of China


A yen for the unloved dollar standard

Tan Sri Andrew Sheng gives analyses the populist and expert views of how the yen measures against the “unloved US dollar standard”.

TRAVELLING around the South-East Asian region last week, the mood was all about currency fluctuation and impact on markets.

Things do look different when the Thai stock market daily turnover touches US$2bil and is higher than that of Singapore. But the headline that Thai growth slowed quarter-on-quarter but still grew 5.3% year-on-year gave rise to fears that export-driven economies in the region are beginning to slow.

The guru on the dollar relationship with the East Asian currencies has to be Stanford Professor Ronald I. McKinnon. McKinnon made his name with his first book, Money and Capital in Economic Development (1973), where he took forward the pioneering work of his Stanford colleague, Edward S. Shaw on the phenomenom of “financial repression” the use of negative real interest rates as a tax to finance development. His second book, The Order of Economic Liberalization: Financial Control in the Transition to a Market Economy (1993), was an influential textbook on how to get the sequencing of financial and trade reform right.

McKinnon's second area of expertise is the international currency order, explaining the macro-economics of the US dollar and its relationship with other currencies, particularly the yen and other East Asian currencies. The trouble was that his analysis did not “jive” with the populist policy view that “revaluing the other currency” would reduce the US trade deficit.

This began with the concern in the 1970s that the US-Japan trade imbalance was due to the cheap yen relative to the dollar. The Plaza Accord in 1985 was the political agreement to strengthen the yen and depreciate the dollar. From 1985 to 1990, the yen appreciated from 240 yen to 120 yen per dollar, followed by a huge bubble and two lost decades of growth.

In his important new book, McKinnon explains some uncomfortable truths with regard to what he called The Unloved Dollar Standard: From Bretton Woods to the Rise of China, Oxford University Press. The dollar standard is unloved because of what one US Treasury Secretary told his foreign critics of US exchange rate policy “our dollar, your problem”.

McKinnon argues that US monetary policy has been highly insular, despite globalisation making such insularity obsolete. He thinks that three macroeconomic fallacies were responsible the Phillips Curve Fallacy; the Efficient Market Fallacy and the Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Fallacy. In the 1960s, the US belief in the Phillips Curve that higher inflation generated lower unemployment resulted in the US pushing the Europeans and the Japanese to appreciate their currencies. When they refused, Nixon broke the link with gold in 1971.

In the Greenspan era (1987-2008), there was a strong belief in Efficient Markets, which encouraged global foreign exchange liberalisation, despite high volatility. But the most enduring fallacy is the belief that the exchange rate's role is to correct trade imbalance, hence the Japan bashing in the 1980s and the China bashing in the 21st century in order to push for their exchange rates to appreciate in order to reduce the US trade deficit.

McKinnon considers the third fallacy as the most pernicious conceptual barrier to a more internationalist and stable US monetary policy. Chapter 7, which is written by his student Helen Qiao, gives a robust argument why the third fallacy is wrong. She argues that while a depreciation of an insular economy with no net foreign liability may result in improved trade balance, it is not clear whether the depreciation of the dollar with a large net global liability is to the benefit of the United States.

In the case of Japan, a rising yen since the 1970s did not “cure” the Japanese trade surplus with the US. Between 2005 to 2007, when the yuan appreciated, the Sino-US trade surplus doubled. Qiao worries that China could follow Japan's steps into deflation and even a zero-interest rate liquidity trap if the yuan continues to appreciate.

The central thesis of this book is that the US should recognise that the dollar standard is actually a global standard, with many privileges and responsibilities. Depreciating the dollar is not to the US advantage, because it would only lead to future inflation. Instead, the US should concentrate on improving its competitiveness and manufacturing prowess. This requires having positive real interest rates.

The logic of the McKinnon thesis is irrefutable, although his American colleagues may find the conclusions somewhat unpalatable. The logic is that whoever maintains the dominant currency standard must maintain strong self-discipline, because the benchmark standard cannot be on shifting sands. If the dollar is weak because the US economy is weak, then all other currencies will be volatile, because they float around an unsteady standard.

For small open economies that maintain large trade with the US, having dollar pegs require them to keep their economies flexible and they must maintain fiscal and monetary discipline. This is the experience of the Hong Kong dollar peg.

Flexible exchange rates have not resulted in countries adjusting their overall competitiveness. What happened instead is that flexible exchange rates often allow governments to run “soft budget constraints” and try to depreciate their way out of the lack of competitiveness.

It is the refusal to make structural reforms that cause overall competitiveness to decline and these economies then go into a vicious circle of over-reliance on the exchange rate to keep the economy afloat. This is not sustainable, since if everyone tries to devalue their way out of trouble, rather than making structural adjustments, then the world will enter into a collective deflation.

The solution to this requires the US and China to work cooperatively at the monetary and exchange rate levels. This makes a lot of sense, which is why perhaps presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping are meeting soon to achieve rapport.

Anyone who wants to understand currency wars must read this book. It is an honest and frank appraisal of how we need common sense to get out of the current fragile state of global currency arrangements.

THINK ASIAN By TAN SRI ANDREW SHENG
Tan Sri Andrew Sheng is president of the Fung Global Institute.

Friday, May 24, 2013

Wishing all a blessed Wesak…

All our dreams can come true, if you have the courage to change and pursue them
- Walt Disney


Today marks three important events in Siddhartha Gautama’s life – his birth, enlightenment and death. Two thousand years after his parinirvana, Gautama’s teachings still thrives because in one’s darkest hours and bleakest moments, his wisdom gives hopes, strength and joy to the sorrowful heart and tormented soul. Such is the greatness of this prince we called Buddha or the Enlightened One. Have a blessed Wesak.

May 24, 2013 by Ipohgal

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Penang Sungai Nibong Express Bus Terminal management takeover postponed

Operator stopped paying rent as the council failed implementing an e-ticketing system

Disquiet in the air: A confrontation between Sungai Nibong Express Bus Terminal management staff and MPPP enforcement personnel at the main gate of the terminal in Sungai Nibong, Penang.
 
EFFORTS by the Penang Muni-cipal Council (MPPP) to take over the management of the Sungai Nibong Express Bus Ter-minal were halted following a three-hour confrontation with the current operator.

The council postponed its action to take vacant possession of the terminal following the resistance, and called off some 50 council enforcement personnel at the scene.

Several enforcement personnel had arrived there as early as 7.30am Tuesday.

Their arrival was anticipated by the operator Aspirasi Utara Engi-neering (AUE) and a few of its staff members and representatives confronted the MPPP personnel.

Their exchange heated up from around 8.30am, and the group steadily grew to about 50 MPPP enforcement personnel and 20 people from AUE about three hours later.

MPPP Valuation Department deputy director Mohamed Idrus Saleh then briefed the enforcement team that their operation was being postponed.

In a written statement issued to reporters at the scene, the council said it had terminated the appointment of AUE as the operator of the terminal effective June 30, 2012.

It also said that AUE had on July 24, 2012, obtained an ex-parte order from the High Court to pro- hibit MPPP from taking any enforcement action concerning the bus terminal.

“The High Court then on Dec 28, 2012, set aside the ex-parte order after dismissing AUE’s inter-parte application for an injunction.

“The court also dismissed AUE’s application (pending its appeal) for an Erinford injunction on the same day, and dismissed its application for stay of execution on Feb 22 this year,” read the statement.

It also stated that MPPP, as the local authority and owner of the bus terminal, wanted to take over the management of the terminal in the interests of the public and users.

AUE legal advisor Mohd Noor Sirajajudeen Mohd Abdul Kader said they resisted the operation by MPPP because the personnel had come without a court order.

“They just came and pasted the notice to take over the management on the window of our office here on Monday morning,” he said.

He added that MPPP’s action was not in accordance with the law.

Company director Mohd Faisal Sirashahabudeen Mohd Abdul Kader said MPPP’s attempt to take over the management and the termination notice were still subject matters in court.

“The issue is still in court and MPPP’s action is deemed a disrup-tion to the administration of justice and contempt of court,” Mohd Faisal said.

He then ordered the council personnel to leave the terminal within 45 minutes.

He said the company had been appointed by MPPP to be the operator since 2010 but stopped paying the monthly rental of RM22,500 in January 2012 as the council had failed to implement an e-ticketing system.

The terminal was built by the MPPP in 2004 and has 41 ticket counters, five stalls, a restaurant, a bakery, 10 parking spaces for buses and 12 route platforms

By WINNIE YEOH winnie@thestar.com.my Photos by ZHAFARAN NASIB

Footnote:

Penang Sungai Nibong Bus Terminal

Sungai Nibong Bus Terminal is the centralised long distance express bus terminal on Penang Island. It was opened in May 2005, before that long distance express bus runs from Komtar, Georgetown. Though most express bus companies have relocated their operation to Sungai Nibong bus terminal, even until today, there are still some express bus companies departing from Komtar, Georgetown. For these groups of buses, they depart from Komtar then go to Sungai Nibong to pick up another group of passengers before leaving the island for the destinations. This is especially convenient for tourist who usually spends time and stays hotel in Georgetown area.

Sungai Nibong bus terminal is located about mid-way between northern and southern end of Penang Island. It is near the famous Penang bridge about 20 minutes to the city centre. Many city bus coaches arrive and depart from this terminal. Please check MyRapid for Penang city bus network details.

How do get to Sungai Nibong Bus Terminal?

The best way to get to Sungai Nibong Bus Terminal are by taxis and city buses.

Taxi fare from Georgetown area to Sungai Nibong Bus Terminal is around RM 25-35, whereas the travelling time is about 15 minutes.

Bus fare is RM 2 from from Georgetown area to Sungai Nibong Bus Terminal, whereas the travelling time is about 20 minutes. Do prepare yourself earlier if you are rushing for bus, in case of heavy traffic and longer waiting time for the bus.

How do get to city, Georgetown, from Sungai Nibong Bus Terminal?

The best way to get to city from Sungai Nibong Bus Terminal are by taxis and city buses.

Taxi stand is just in front of the Sungai Nibong Bus Terminal.

As for city bus, you can easily find the it from the two bus stops at the Sungai Nibong Bus Terminal. One is located at the front entrance of the terminal (along Jalan Sultan Azlan Shah) and the other one is located at the side entrance of the terminal (along Jalan Sungai Dua, at the opposite site of the terminal for town direction).

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Racist Malay groups boycott Chinese businesses will be self-defeating

 The call by pro-Umno bloggers and Muslim groups for a boycott of Chinese businesses is racist and will harm the country’s economic growth, according to businessmen from the community - The Malaysian Insider


PETALING JAYA: Boycotting products made by Malaysians, regardless of their race, is self-defeating, said a local business group.

Small and Medium Industries Association president Teh Kee Sin said the workforce of these companies are made up of all races and so are their shareholders.

If Malaysians started boycotting these products, it would also affect their export potential and both local businesses and consumers would lose, he said.

“Boycott doesn’t make sense as it would hamper the chances for Malaysian businesses to compete at a global level.

“The current business market is very competitive thus local businesses should complement each other to make our products more competitive,” he said when contacted yesterday.

Teh was commenting on calls by certain non-governmental organisations for the Malays to boycott Chinese traders and their products.

Prior to that there was a campaign in social media forum urging the Chinese to boycott certain products produced by a Malay company.

Teh said that the biggest losers as a result of such boycott were not just the consumers and the producers, but also the workers of the companies due to the spill-over effect.

The chain reaction from such boycott would also affect the suppliers, distributers, traders and shopkeepers.

Teh explained local businesses should instead prepare themselves for the Asean Economic Community initiative.

“The initiative presents a lot of opportunities provided we are ready.

“If we are not ready and squabble among ourselves, then we stand to lose,” he said.

He said one of the benefits of the AEC was less red-tape in starting businesses overseas.

“For example, one can set up a company in Malaysia and run a business in Thailand.

“In short less bureaucratic procedures in doing business,” he said adding that the competitiveness level would surely increase.

Teh urged groups calling for boycotts to cease immediately as it would only lead to huge losses for the nation.

“We should focus on working together rather than against each other,” he said.

By FARIK ZOLKEPLI farik@thestar.com.my

Mustapa against call to boycott products of Chinese firms

By NICHOLAS CHENG and P. ARUNA
newsdesk@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed sa

“I can understand why some of my Malay friends have reacted in such a manner. However, as the dust is settling down and as we lead our normal lives once again, I am confident that the spirit of 1Malaysia will return,” he said through SMS yesterday.

He was commenting on reports that some groups had called for Malay consumers to boycott products by certain Chinese companies, which they alleged had funded Pakatan Rakyat’s campaign during the general election.

The products involved in the call for boycott include several brands of cooking oil, tonic drink, food outlets and bread.

It appears to be a retaliation against an earlier boycott called by Chinese groups against a brand of wheat flour and bread produced by a Malay company.

Muslim Wholesalers and Retailers Association (Mawar) president Amanullah Mohd Maideen said the boycott would be a double-edged sword and advised its 700 members to stay clear of politics.

“If it continues, the affected businesses will lose customers, but the groups which boycott them will also lose public support,” said Amanul-lah.

Domestic Trade, Co-operatives and Consumerism Minister Datuk Hasan Malek said the ministry also did not approve of the call to boycott Malaysian Chinese shops and companies.

Selangor Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry president P. Muguntha said the call to boycott the products was pointless.

“Malaysian consumers are more intelligent than that. I don’t think anyone will listen to this call for boycott,” he said.

Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) executive director Dr Zakariah Abdul Rashid said it is counterproductive to segregate the market based on political affiliation.

Commnent: Unless steps were taken to strongly “discourage” the instigators of the boycott, investors still wary over the “politicisation of businesses” may choose to explore opportunities elsewhere and this would affect Malaysia’s foreign direct investment (FDI)
  
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Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Mutual love and marry, so what?

Forty-year-old Riduan Masmud who allegedly had sex with a 13-year-old girl,
 KOTA KINABALU: He allegedly had sex with a 13-year-old girl and saw no wrong in it.

Riduan Masmud, the 40-year-old who shocked the nation after being charged with raping the minor and later declared that he had married her in the midst of the case, has opened up for the first time on why he decided to take the girl as his second wife.

The restaurant manager defended his action, saying it was a case of suka sama suka (mutual consent), adding that it was acceptable under Syariah law.

It could not be ascertained whether the girl met Riduan while she was at school or whether she had been working for him. She is from a very poor family.

As his rape case came up for mention at a Sessions Court yesterday, Riduan told reporters that he had known the girl for about six months and felt he had the right (to marry an underage girl).

“There are many cases of men marrying underage girls. I do not see why my case should be any different,“ said the father of four children, aged between two and 17. He declined to say if any of them is a girl.

Riduan was speaking to reporters outside the courtroom after Sessions Court Judge Ummu Khatom Abd Samad set July 1 to 4 to hear the case.

Judge Ummu Khatom gave the Attorney-General's Chambers until June 6 to make a decision on whether to proceed with the case.

Riduan was charged on Feb 28 with raping the girl inside a car parked by the roadside in Inanam near here at 10am on Feb 18.

On May 7, DPP Ahmad Nazmeen Zulkifli told the court he had no objection for the case to be withdrawn after the girl withdrew the rape report against the man April 18.

It is understood that it was the girl's aunt who lodged the police report after she found out about the “affair”.

The courtroom was packed yesterday with concerned groups turning up in full force. Many women interest groups and NGOs turned up for the hearing yesterday, including Befrienders Kota Kinabalu president Datuk Seri Siti Rubiah Abdul Samad, the wife of Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Anifah Aman.

All eyes were on the girl who appeared briefly in court. She has a childlike face, wore some make up, and tied up her long hair in a pony tail. Thin and looking under-developed, she was dressed in a T-shirt and jeans.

Riduan said he would let his child-wife finish her studies first and “maybe later take up a cosmetic course with my first wife”, adding that she was a make-up artist.

His wife also told the press that she had accepted the teenager to be her husband's second wife and promised to guide her through her studies.

However, Riduan stopped talking and moved away from the media when he was signalled by a lawyer not to talk.

The girl's father, who was also at the court, said he accepted his daughter's marriage to Riduan as they liked each other.

“It is best for her that they get married. What else can I do?” he added.

As the case came up for mention yesterday, DPP Chaw Siang Kong told the court that he needed time to review the case as it involved public interest.

Lawyers Datuk Mariati Robert and Mary Lee held watching briefs for Sabah Law Association and the Sabah Women Action Resource Group respectively.

Counsel Loretto J. Padua informed the court that the Syariah marriage certificates had been presented to the investigating officer and confirmed that the two were now married.

The court ordered that the man's RM8,000 bail be extended till June 6.

By STEPHANIE LEE and MUGUNTAN VANAR
newsdesk@thestar.com.my