China’s Xi Urges Self-Reliance Amid Change ‘Unseen in 100 Years’

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-12-18/china-won-t-be-dictated-to-jinping-video
https://youtu.be/8A10yeIodrc https://youtu.be/sajhWARyFJM https://youtu.be/lX2cxhaagew

Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed self-reliance amid “changes unseen in 100 years,” as the country faced an economic slowdown and a more confrontational U.S. under President Donald Trump.

In his annual New Year’s Eve address, Xi stressed China’s capacity to weather the storm, citing a series of industrial and technological achievements in 2018. He said the government would keep growth from slowing too quickly and follow through on a tax cut as part of an effort “to ease the burden on enterprises.”

“Despite all sorts of risks and challenges, we pushed our economy towards high-quality development, sped up the replacement of the old drivers of growth, and kept the major economic indicators within a reasonable range,” Xi said.

The speech followed reminders of Xi’s twin challenges: another dose of weak economic data Monday and a phone call with Trump on Saturday touching on their trade dispute. China’s factories slid back into contraction territory in December, with the manufacturing purchasing mangers index dropping to 49.4.

Meanwhile, a U.S. delegation led by Deputy Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish was preparing for talks in Beijing next week that would test a tariff cease-fire established earlier in the month by the two sides. Trump said he and Xi spoke at length and that “big progress” is being made toward a deal.

Looking Ahead

Next year marks 70 years since Mao Zedong led the Communist Party to power -- a milestone that would surpass the Soviet Union. The anniversary underscores the urgency Xi faces in turning around stalled growth and investor confidence, while pushing forward an agenda of political reform that will strengthen his power.

The government launched over 100 reform measures in 2018, Xi said Monday, and stepped up efforts to improve standards of living.

“Our people are the country’s solid foundation and our main source of confidence to govern,” he said.

A little less than a year since he scrapped term limits, clearing the path toward his indefinite rule, Xi has seen his major initiatives -- notably the Belt and Road trade and infrastructure program -- draw international backlash amid the unprecedented trade war.

Over the next few months, March’s National People’s Congress and April’s Belt and Road Summit, both to be held in Beijing, could see the announcement of new regulations and investments meant to counter skepticism over Xi’s leadership.

China is already considering a new law on the practice of forced technology transfer that has drawn U.S. ire, and stepped up internal scrutiny of Belt and Road as poorer countries adopt a more cautious approach to China’s plans for what it regards as its backyard.

The country’s growth is still slowing as it transitions from a high-growth, export-led model to a consumer- focused state. Top economic policy makers last week pledged to exact “significant” stimulus policies this coming year.

— Bloomberg, with assistance by Shuping Niu, Dandan Li, and Fox Hu

Related:

2018: End of an era - Global Trends 

 

China will tread own path steadily in 2019

In the face of sudden escalation of China-US trade conflict throughout 2018, Beijing chose neither a concession nor a confrontation. The country has continued advancing and establishing its position as the world's second largest economy, maximizing its vitality and cooperation. Undoubtedly, that is China's lifeline to keep steady progress in an increasingly restless world.

https://youtu.be/FBABIdKFzfQ
https://youtu.be/S8Va_K4Omkc

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China marks 40th anniversary of reform and opening-up with greater resolve to cope with unimaginable perils'

China marks 40th anniversary of reform and opening-up with greater resolve to cope with ‘unimaginable’ perils

Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of his speech at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing to mark the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening up. Photo: Reuters

https://youtu.be/MILBtNHX4rQ

• Chinese president avoids specifics for the road ahead 

• Audiences at home and abroad need convincing that reforms started 40 years ago will continue 

China faces “unimaginable” perils and dangers ahead and must rely on Communist Party rule and economic reform to sail through them, Chinese President Xi Jinping said in one of the most watched speeches of his leadership in Beijing on Tuesday.

Speaking at the Great Hall of the People to mark the 40th anniversary of the country’s reform and opening up, Xi did not directly address the specific challenges facing the world’s second biggest economy or touch on sensitive issues such as the ongoing trade war with the US.

Instead, Xi spent much of the hour-and-a-half speech drawing general conclusions about China’s economic and social development in the past four decades since Deng Xiaoping, China’s former paramount leader, started to embrace market-oriented changes in China.

The No 1 lesson China can draw from the 40 years of success is that the country must stick to the leadership of the Communist Party, Xi said.

China tightens control of local economic data ahead of expected weak growth next year

.

“The practices of reform and opening up in the past 40 years have shown us that the Chinese Communist Party leadership is the fundamental character of socialism with Chinese characteristics … east, west, south, north, and the middle, the party leads everything,” he said.

“Every step in reform and opening up will not be easy, and we will face all kinds of risks and challenges in the future and we may even encounter unimaginable terrifying tidal waves and horrifying storms,” Xi said.

“Only by improving the party's leadership and governance … can we ensure the ship of reform and opening up will sail forward.”

Xi’s speech was delivered as prospects for China’s growth are clouded abroad, by rising rivalries between China and the US, and by a deepening economic slowdown at home.

Xi, who is now legally entitled to retain his presidency beyond 2023 after a constitutional amendment in March this year, needs to convince domestic and foreign audiences that Beijing remains committed to the economic liberalisation process that was started by Deng 40 years ago.

The stock indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen, which had both risen in early trading in anticipation of possible policy announcements, retraced their declines soon after proceedings began.

Shanghai’s composite index fell as much as 1.2 per cent, while Shenzhen’s index fell as much as 1.5 per cent to an eight-week low.

On the Hong Kong exchange, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.9 per cent while the H-share index declined 1.3 per cent.

Stocks slide as Xi refrains from kick-starting China’s sagging growth

Xi stressed that China would stick to its own chosen path, namely socialism with Chinese characteristics.

“To push forward reform and opening up in a country with 5,000 years of civilisation and a population of 1.3 billion, there are no textbooks containing golden rules or teachers who can be arrogant to the Chinese people,” he said.

Xi quoted the renowned Chinese author Lu Xun, who asked, “what's a road? A trodden path in a place where there was previously no road, and a passage opened from a place where there were only thorns.”

How a generation climbed China’s social ladder through 40 years of luck, talent and economic growth

Xi opened his speech by saying the Cultural Revolution, from 1966 to 1976, had brought China's economy to the brink of collapse and went on to quote Deng, saying “China's modernisation and socialism will be buried if we do not embrace reform and opening up now.”

The audience at the Great Hall of the People listen to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech commemorating 40 years of opening up and reform. Photo: Xinhua

He made it clear that Beijing would not abandon its road as China's developmental achievements in the past four decades had proven the “vivid vitality” of China's “scientific socialism”.

“For those that ought to be changed or can be changed, we will change; but for those that shouldn't be changed or cannot be changed, we will firmly not change,” Xi said.

In international relations, Xi reiterated Beijing’s existing line that China would not seek hegemony, but he did not mention the US specifically.

Xi said China was walking closer to the world’s centre stage and was now “an internationally recognised” builder of world peace, a contributor to global development, and a keeper of international order.

China, he said, had contributed “China wisdom, China solutions and China power” to world peace and development.

The Chinese president said China would play its role as “a big responsible country” to support developing countries and to take part in global governance.

“China will never grow at the cost of other countries' interests but will never give up its legitimate rights and interests … China's development does not pose a threat to any other country. No matter how far China develops, it will never seek hegemony,” Xi said.

How China’s ‘reform and opening up’ transformed poor families into middle-class shoppers

In a long list of China's economic and social achievements of the past four decades, Xi said China had achieved an annual average growth in GDP of 9.5 per cent since 1978, and contributed more than 30 per cent towards total global economic growth for many years.

China, he said, was now the world's second largest economy, the world's biggest manufacturing country and the world's No 1 commodity trading country.

From left: Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang at the 40th anniversary commemorations of reform on Thursday. Photo: AP

Bureaucracy still hampers academic research in China 40 years after opening up

In terms of ideology, Xi said China would stick to its official ideology, namely Marxism, Leninism, Mao Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, Three Represents theory, scientific development concept and his own “Theory of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era”.

In terms of economic policies, Xi reiterated the policy that China would support public ownership while offering “unswerving” support to non-state sectors.

By  Zhou Xin  Nectar Gan Catherine Wong,  South China Morning Post

China needs strong core leadership: media survey

‘Transitional period demands strong administration’

Chinese people believe that a strong central leadership is indispensable for the rise of the country, and highly anticipate further confirmation of the role of the core leadership by President Xi Jinping during this period of historic significance, according to a poll recently released by a magazine affiliated with the People's Daily.

The survey, conducted by the People's Tribune, a magazine affiliated with the newspaper, through questionnaires, face-to-face and telephone interviews, as well as online polls between April 15 and September 8, interviewed 15,596 people living in cities and rural areas. The survey results were released earlier this month.

The main findings were that a strong central leadership as well as a pioneering figure is especially critical for a rising world power, and that as president and general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, Xi, with full leadership qualities, is supported whole-heartedly by a wide range of officials and people.

To the question of why a country in a transitional period needs a strong central leadership, most respondents strongly agreed that it is vital to safeguard a country's sovereignty and national security, putting the approval rate at 4.50, on a 5-point scale from disagree to complete approval, the survey found. This is followed by the number of respondents who think that core leadership is as important to "guide the nation toward a lofty goal" or that it was "particularly important for a populous and multi-ethnic country."

This year, the necessity for strong leadership has been a theme expounded by many media organizations.

The Guangming Daily on October 9 published a commentary by Fan Dezhi, a senior official at the Party History Research Center of the CPC Central Committee, which asserted that "A strong core leadership is needed more than ever before to achieve the great dream of the renewal of the Chinese nation."

To promote the core leadership of the Party, the priority is to "conform with the CPC Central Committee, with General Secretary Xi Jinping as well as with the Party's theories, guidelines, principles and policies," read a commentary in the Qiushi Journal in March, the flagship magazine of the CPC Central Committee.

Social and political stability, which can be realized by a potent government backed by public support, is the prerequisite for a smooth transition and reform of any country, said Zhi Zhenfeng, a legal expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

"Both the rise of great Western powers and the rapid development of developing countries needed a strong core leadership and powerful government," Zhuang Deshui, deputy director of the Research Center for Government Integrity-Building at Peking University, told the Global Times.

Zhuang cited the examples of Otto von Bismarck who unified Germany in the 19th century and the strong Japanese government that carried out Meiji Restoration to bring about its modernization and Westernization.

China should unwaveringly uphold the CPC's leadership if it hopes to realize a stable and sustainable development, Zhang Dejiang, chairman of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, said in March, adding that everyone should conform to the ideology and actions of the CPC Central Committee with Xi as general secretary.

"Since China faces complicated situations in different areas, coupled with a huge population, only a strong core leadership is able to coordinate the interests of different groups while taking full account of the majority of its nationals," Zhuang noted.

Zhi said a lack of consciousness of "the core" has made a few local officials and Party members fail to follow or strictly implement the policies issued by the CPC Central Committee.

Charismatic leadership

The People's Tribune poll found that the Chinese people are drawn to the charisma of Xi. The survey found that most respondents believe that Xi has leadership qualities, namely "strategic willpower with full confidence," "bravery to tackle problems head-on" and "intelligence to cure both the symptoms and root causes of problems." The list is rounded out by "top-level design with wisdom and philosophy" and "personal charisma to set an example for others."

When asked which trait is essential for a core leadership to give full play in reality, 79.13 percent of those surveyed said a "leader of integrity and ability."

In addition, the poll results showed that people from all walks of life highly anticipate the further confirmation of Xi's role as the core of the leadership.

Without releasing the specific data, the survey found that most respondents believe that officials that lacked "the consciousness of the core" would go astray and lose their sense of responsibility or discipline.

"Only by establishing authority in the CPC Central Committee can the Party and the nation be forceful. In this sense, firmly espousing Xi as the core is a matter of direction, principle and realistic needs," the magazine quoted anonymous officials who participated in the poll.

Therefore, we should further strengthen the consciousness of the core in the Party and across the country, improve intra-Party political life and the leadership system of the Party and the State, and further confirm Xi's core role in the critical rise of China, said the survey report. - Global Times.

 

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Fearful of China's rise?

PETALING JAYA: China may overtake the United States as the biggest economic power in the next four to six years but this does not mean that it will instantly become the world's superpower, says a leading expert on China.

Dr Martin Jacques, 67, author of the global bestseller When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order, said it would take several decades, from between 2030 and 2040, before it could even achieve developed state status.

“It'd be a long way to go as a superpower,” he said at a talk on “China As Global Superpower: What It Means For Asia and The World”, hosted by the Asian Centre for Media Studies, based in Menara Star.

The second edition of his book was released recently and 40% of its content was new.

“This includes an extensive chapter analysing events after the 2008 financial crisis,” he said.

Expert on China: Dr Jacques presenting a talk hosted by the Asian Centre for Media Studies at Menara Star.

 

His first was shortlisted for two major literary awards.

Dr Jacques said Westerners were fearful of China's rise due to scant knowledge and understanding of China and that it was a communist country.

They fear the country might throw its weight and its military power around.

However, Dr Jacques pointed out that China had no major interest in developing military power after Deng Xiaoping took over the country from the late 1970s to 1990s.

On fears that a communist country was not democratic, he argued that being democratic had not stopped Europeans from conquering others.

“Although China has a lot of problems now, it doesn't mean that it can't be humane and more democratic,” said Dr Jacques.

“Maybe, it will develop universal suffrage without following the Western way.”

Dr Jacques pointed out that the China Development Bank and China Export-Import Bank gave loans of more than US$110bil (RM338.415bil) to other developing countries in 2009 and 2010 while the World Bank only made loan commitments of US$100.3bil (RM307.65bil).

Dr Jacques, a Senior Visiting Research Fellow at the London School of Economics (University of London), visiting professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing, and Fellow at the Transatlantic Academy, Washington DC, was the former editor of Marxism Today, deputy editor of The Independent and a co-founder of the think tank Demos.

Fresh insight on China

PETALING JAYA: China continues to grab world headlines and dominate international news for many reasons. The world's second largest economy is now expected to be the biggest in only a few years, with many far-reaching implications to follow.

World-renowned author and academic Dr Martin Jacques (pic) will be presenting a fresh look at the new China in a talk at Menara Star in Petaling Jaya at 2pm on Thursday.

His talk titled “China As Global Superpower: What It Means For Asia and The World” is hosted by the Asian Center for Media Studies, based at Star Publications (M) Bhd.

Dr Jacques is the author of the global bestseller When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order, which has been translated into 11 languages, shortlisted for two major literary awards and described as the best book on China in many years.

To keep track of the rapid changes in China, Dr Jacques has just released the second edition of his book, incorporating the latest data and an extended analysis which includes a new section.

The discussant for the talk will be Dr Lee Poh Ping, a Senior Research Fellow in the Institute of China Studies at Universiti Malaya.

Dr Lee has written and published extensively on East Asian affairs and presented university seminars on Dr Jacques' work.

The talk will be moderated by The Star's associate editor Bunn Nagara.

The event at the Cybertorium in Menara Star is open to the public free of charge, with no registration required

 The Star/Asia News Network

Malaysian leaders should learn from Deng Xiaoping?

It’s all about leadership

Recent Asian political history provides us with some useful examples of effective leadership. However, the list, sadly, is not long.

WITH a general election in the offing, Malaysians are quite naturally thinking a lot about “leadership”.

Recent Asian political history provides us with some useful examples of effective leadership.

However, the list, sadly, is not long. Many of the men (and women) who have led our countries have also been deeply flawed.

For example, in the case of Jawaharlal Nehru, his ideas and rhetoric may well have been brilliant but his performance in government was often disappointing, if not disastrous.

Deng Xiaoping, conversely, stands out among Asia’s leaders. He’s also the subject of a recently published biography by the academic Ezra Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China.

First, Deng did more to alleviate global poverty than anyone else in the past century. According to Bloomberg, more than 250 million Chinese escaped poverty during his stewardship.

Described by Mao Zedong as a “needle inside a ball of cotton”, the Szechuan province-born Deng rose to the top of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its Politburo after a long, arduous process, including two periods in political wilderness, the first of which was the Cultural Revolution.

By 1978, when he was returned to the centre of power, China was at its lowest ebb. As Vogel wrote: “The average per capita income of Chinese peasants, who made up 80% of the population, was then only US$40 per year (RM124). The amount of grain produced per person had fallen below what it had been in 1957.”

But China was lucky to have Deng at this critical juncture. By the late 1970s, Deng had accumulated more than 50 years of experience at the heart of the CCP, the military, high-level diplomacy and governance.

Deng was experienced, wily, determined and above all, extremely pragmatic.

Moreover, his family’s personal tragedy during the Cultural Revolution – his son Deng Pufang was crippled after being beaten by the Red Guards – made his desire to stabilise and strengthen China all the more intense.

Deng was lucky enough to have met and worked with outstanding leaders. For example, while studying in France in the mid-1920s, he was to forge a critical friendship with Zhou Enlai, who – in turn – grew to respect the diminutive but rock-solid Deng.

Similarly, in the years when the Communists were battling the Nationalists, Deng assumed a vital military role – leading men into battle; motivating, coordinating and administering hundreds of thousands troops, their supplies and their relations with the local communities.

His most enduring success was the Huaihai Campaign of 1948, after which the Communists were able to cross the Yangtze River without resistance, dealing a fatal blow to the Kuomintang and endearing Deng to Mao himself.

So while Deng is better-known for his achievements in the economic sphere – especially his transformation of the coastal provinces in the late 1970s and early 1980s – there’s no denying that his military experience in the field equipped him mentally to lead under pressure.

Having endured the chaos of the Cultural Revolution, Deng was understandably wary of relaxing political controls. He was no democrat. Instead, he saw discipline and loyalty to the CCP as absolutely critical.

Indeed, Tiananmen Square was proof his unshakeable belief in both the primacy of the CCP as well as the need for political stability at all costs.

Whilst we may disagree with what he did, there’s no denying his steadfastness.

Deng was detailed and meticulous in all matters – managing China’s administration with a firm hand.

Fortunately, his international exposure at an early age meant Deng was open to foreign ideas and when it was time for him to lead China; he was ready to embrace the world beyond the Middle Kingdom.

So what can Deng teach us about leadership? I think the following lessons can be drawn:

> Lead decisively and with conviction. If you make a decision you believe is right, stick by it. People respect (and fear) determination;

> Deng believed in education. He rebuilt China’s shattered universities after the Cultural Revolution and shielded the centres of learning from political interference;

> Leaders must prioritise, dealing with only the most critical obstacles to development. On assuming power, Deng took a close personal interest in overcoming the infrastructural glitches and political resistance to reform at Xuzhou’s critical railway hub – thereby sending out a strong message to those who dared challenge his authority; and

> Deng laid the foundations for China’s current, albeit uneven rise to power. His legacy is something Malaysian leaders should not ignore.

Ceritalah By Karim Raslan  

No one can stop China in South China Sea but China - Former Philippines National Security Adviser

No one can stop China from claiming “indisputable sovereignty” over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea)—except China itself or the authoritative power of world opinion.

Short of war, a war nobody wants or would wish, even the United States can only delay or impede the fulfillment of China’s inordinate ambition to gain sovereign control of 3 million square kilometers of this great inland sea that is also Southeast Asia’s maritime heartland.

This is the strategic context of China’s assertive ambiguity in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea).

Just now, Beijing can only bluster and intimidate, as it probes for weaknesses in its rival claimants.

But once China can translate its economic power into military capability credible enough to challenge that of the United States—when the “time is right” in China’s terms—then the geopolitical configuration in the Asia-Pacific region will change radically.

And time and circumstances favor China. Analysts say China is likely to become the world’s largest economy in a decade or so.

If they are right, the Philippines has only 10 short years to prepare for what is likely to become an interesting Asia-Pacific future.

Long-term security

Given the constraints under which it’s working, the administration of President Benigno Aquino has so far done all that could possibly be done, in the short term, to defend our nation’s interests in the West Philippine Sea.

But in this case it’s not enough to deal with the immediate problem. Our nation’s long-term security hangs in the balance.

And to ensure our safety, we must look at the root of our nation’s security, which lies in our people—in everyone of us and nobody else.

If our country is to prevail in any challenge, if the Philippines is to become worthy of respect as a sovereign nation, we must first of all enable our people to become effective wealth creators.

We must make our country rich enough to enable us to acquire the means to defend our nation’s interests, to protect our people’s dignity and honor.

Nationhood infrastructure

To carry out the government’s strategies, policies, plans and programs to grow and develop the nation, we must strive urgently to create the four conditions necessary for growth and development.

Let us make no mistake, without these, the nation can hardly enforce its Constitution and its laws, and no development plan can succeed:

1. We must come to terms with ourselves. We must build among us the infrastructure of nationhood. We must be able to answer the basic question of who we are.

We must live the core values our forebears fought and died for: Dignity, honor, freedom, justice, self-determination, hard work, discipline, tolerance, mutual caring and compassion.

We must become a people at peace with themselves and with the world.

There is nothing our people cannot accomplish, if our identity and the goals we seek are articulated in terms of the core values taught us by our heroes and martyrs.

These core values define what is right or wrong for our people. They guide us, like our heroes and martyrs, to live only when it is right to live, and to die only when it is right to die.

2. No matter what it takes, we must end our internal wars. Our radical insurgency is kept alive by our grievous inequality and the elemental injustice of mass poverty. And both are caused by corruption and misgovernment.

The same is true of our separatist conflict in Mindanao. There popular frustrations are worsened by rivalries over land and livelihood, and the situation is complicated by ethnic and religious enmities.

3. We must complete all the land and nonland reforms we still need to do. Not only will their completion make rebellion, separatism and mutiny irrelevant but will also accelerate our nation’s growth. And, finally, it will unite our people.

4. We must transfer the power of the few over the state to the people as citizens. In the World Bank’s view, we are a country where state policies and their implementation serve not the common good but those of special interests.

The capture of the state and its regulatory agencies by vested interest groups has made our economy the least competitive among comparable economies in East Asia.

In sum, we must put our house in order. We must level our popular playing field to grow and develop the nation—and so enable our people to surmount any challenge.

No luxury of time

As we create the four conditions necessary for growth and development, we must also carry out our development plans. Given the uncertainties building up in East Asia, we do not have the luxury of time.

It is the Chinese people’s historic sense that is driving their country’s rise. They count their recovery from generations of humiliation at the hands of the great powers as lasting 150 years starting from the initial European effort to open up China around 1800.

In 1949, Mao Zedong proclaimed China had stood up. But China began to recover economically only after Deng Xiaoping’s reforms (1978). In three and a half decades, China has become the world’s second largest economy.

We, too, must tap into our people’s sense of nationality—and do no less. By creating the four conditions necessary for growth and development that I cited above, and by simultaneously carrying out the government’s development plans, we can change our country—we can modernize it without leaving anyone behind—during the next 10 years.

By that time, we will also have nurtured the inclusive institutions that will sustain our people’s capacities for wealth creation.

No primrose paths

Let us not delude ourselves. There are no short cuts—no primrose paths—to growth and development. We must never give up even if our country’s rise takes 150 years or more.

We have no choice. The alternative is too dire to contemplate.

We must work together to prevent the situation developing that reduces our country into a tributary, a vassal, a province of a great power.

Those who sacrificed and died for us and for generations yet to come will never forgive us if we fail to summon the courage and the will to take the radical steps toward the Filipino future: To deliberately put in place the four conditions necessary for growth and development without delay.

By: Jose T. Almonte
Former National Security Adviser

Can Kim Jong-un be North Korea's Deng Xiaoping?

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By Isabel Hilton guardian.co.uk,

The death of Kim Jong-il recalls Mao's. But China, unlike paranoid North Korea, opted for the path of reform 

A North Korean child is overcome by grief at the death of Kim Jong-il. Photograph: AP

There is little room for nuance in our view of North Korea. State television parades sobbing citizens and soldiers apparently convulsed with grief at the loss of Kim Jong-il. Western commentators dismiss these scenes as propaganda.

Much of this display is certainly ritual, enacted for the camera and for watching comrades and informers. To fail to grieve for the loss of the "dear leader" is a poor career move. But for some the emotions may be real enough: the regime has cultivated in the people an intense gratitude to the Kim family, from the hero-founder Kim Il-sung, whose centenary will be celebrated next year, to his grandson, Kim Jong-un.

Kim Il-sung died in 1994, a time of terrible famine when there was little to be grateful for in North Korea. But refugees interviewed by the American journalist Barbara Demick – men and women who escaped to the south – reported their own intense feelings of bereavement for a leader whom they had been taught to revere as the embodiment of North Korean resistance, nationalism and independence.



Viewed from Beijing, these displays are easier to read: the death of Mao Zedong, whose tyrannical gifts were more than equal to those of the Kim dynasty, sparked similar scenes in China. Like the North Koreans, Chinese had lived under a regime of intense ideological control with limited information about the outside world, and were taught to regard their leader as the embodiment of national resistance to foreign aggression. Mao has never been dethroned as the regime's founding father, but as Beijing struggles to maintain its own internal stability, the question it asks of its troublesome neighbour is: will North Korea follow the Chinese path to reform?

In China Deng Xiaoping was waiting in the wings, a military and political veteran who triumphed over Mao by outliving him and doggedly undoing his legacy. North Koreans, instead, are expected to transfer their affections to a chubby 28 year-old who was catapulted to four-star general status in September last year. The customary chestful of medals will doubtless follow.

Kim Jong-il was nobody's political naif, so we must assume that he judged his third son the best available choice. The fact remains that, beyond the cachet of his DNA, Kim Jong-un has no military or political heft. Whether he has any interest in reform is impossible to gauge; whether it would matter if he did seems unlikely – he will depend on the support of military and the party for his power, and any change of course would have to begin there.

Planning for this transition has been under way since Kim Jong-il's stroke in 2008 with Beijing taking a close interest. China has muted its irritation at North Korea's repeated provocations and stepped up economic and trade relations as a buffer against any derailment of the succession planning. For now, Beijing hopes it will go smoothly enough to avoid any disturbance in China's three north-eastern border provinces.

The Chinese army has well-honed contingency plans to intervene in North Korea in the event of a breakdown, but hopes never to be forced to enact them, standing instead as Pyongyang's guarantor of investment, and of food and energy supplies. Beijing has no desire to cope with a flood of refugees across its nearly 900 miles of border, or to risk the intervention from US-backed South Korea that a collapse in the north could provoke.

The Chinese press has increasingly questioned what China gets out of the relationship with North Korea. For now, though, China has little choice but to pay the bills, while nudging the regime towards the kind of transformational reforms that Deng Xiaoping launched after the death of Mao.

A leadership change offers the regime an opportunity to shape a new narrative, and China's experience till now shows that economic reform need not threaten authoritarian power. To date, though, Pyongyang has shown only limited enthusiasm for the Chinese model. Without more radical reform, the already enormous economic gap between North Korea and its neighbours will only grow, and keep the country isolated and paranoid.

North Korean dependency on China is already stark: China provides 90% of the investment and accounts for 80% of North Korea's trade. China is building power plants, roads and transport infrastructure, Chinese businesses have invested in factories in North Korea's economic development zones, and exports of iron ore and coal to China from North Korea are important earners.

For both Beijing and Pyongyang, this dependency is a mixed blessing. South Korea, Japan and the US may be the bogeymen invoked to frighten North Korean children, but North Korea is also wary of becoming an economic colony of its giant neighbour. North Korea's main international weapon is blackmail: waving its nuclear capability in the face of the US and threatening China with instability. It works, after a fashion, but it is not a recipe for early reform.

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China's Great Leap to Space Industry

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China's space industry to see accelerated expansion over next 10 years

BEIJING, Nov. 4 (Xinhua) -- China's space industry will develop quickly over the next 10 years as the country pushes ahead with its space programs after its first space docking on Thursday.

Lab modules, a space station and 10 to 20 spaceships will be launched into space over the next 10 years, the Shanghai Securities News said Friday, but did not reveal its source.

The country will spend around 300 billion yuan (47.47 billion U.S. dollars) in manufacturing those craft, according to the newspaper.

There are 20 or so space voyages being planned in China, the newspaper reported, citing Wu Ping, spokeswoman of China's manned space program. The spaceflights will shore up demand for spacecraft manufacturing and launch services.

Space infrastructure has been included as one of China's strategic new industries which the government plans to foster over the next five years.

China started its three-stage manned space program in 1992.

In the first stage the country sent the astronaut, Yang Liwei, into space as part of the Shenzhou-5 mission in 2003. It was the first time for China to send a person into space.



Also as part of the initial stage, two astronauts conducted extravehicular activities during the Shenzhou-7 mission in 2008.

Now during the second stage China is focusing on space docking.

It achieved its first space docking in wee hours of Thursday when Tiangong-1 and Shenzhou-8 connected in space.

The next significant events will be the launching of Shenzhou-9 and -10, and one of the missions will be manned.

China will complete the second stage after it establishes its own space lab around 2016, Wu said.

In the third stage, China plans to develop and launch multiple space modules, with a goal of assembling a 60-tonne manned space station in 2020.

"The successful docking means China will enter a phase of massive production of spacecraft. The space economy is about to take off," according to Dongxing Securities.

Chinese Space Program

Roaming outer space in an airship, 1962

The succesful launching of the Shenzhou V, the Divine Vessel, on 15 October 2003, with taikonaut Yang Liwei on board, marked a giant leap forward in the Chinese space program that saw its origins in the 1960s. With this result, China joined the club of space-travelling nations that previously had been limited to the United States and the Soviet Union/Russian Federation. A previous Chinese launching , in 1970, had already brought a satellite into orbit that endlessly broadcast Dongfang hong (东方红, The East is Red), not the national anthem, but probably one of the best known Chinese tunes, eulogizing Mao Zedong. The success of this mission was solely ascribed to the genius of Mao Zedong Thought, which had guided the scientists and workers. In reality, Qian Xuesen (1911-2009), a rocket engineer formerly attached to the Jet Propulsion Lab in Pasadena, California, U.S., who had been expelled in the 1950s for suspected Communist sympathies, designed China's first missiles, earning him the accolade of being the father of the space program.

Little guests in the Moon Palace, early 1970s

In the early 1970s, the Chinese space program was brought to a halt as a result of the political turmoil of the Cultural Revolution. After Deng Xiaoping returned to power in the later 1970s, the program was revived in the 1980s. Clearly, the military industrial complex also benefitted greatly from this development, thus enabling the People's Liberation Army to demonstrate how well it responded to the political demands to modernize. Space also appealed to the popular imagination, as can be seen from the relatively abundant use of space-related imagery in posters published in the 1980s and 1990s.

Our past, present and future, 1987

We are in the process of creation, 1994

Under Jiang Zemin, however, the program, now named the 921 project, really took off in the 1990s. Successes in space exploration are very much seen as results of the CCP's support for advanced scientific projects that is part and parcel of his theory, the "Three Represents". The Party has appropriated the space mission rather as another justification for its continued rule, and attempts to use it even further to fan patriotism. In this patriotic discourse, space activities are another indication that demonstrate that China has shaken off the humiliation it has suffered in the past at the hands of the Western imperialist powers and is becoming a nation once more to be reckoned with.

Continue the struggle to realize the basic strategy and the historic duty of the Party, 2002

Moreover, space exploration and scientific research in general are part of the Party strategy to combat specific religious behavior that it sees and terms as superstition. Even in materials aimed at Falun Gong adherents, space imagery has been used in an attempt to bring them back into the fold.

Uphold science, eradicate superstition, 1999

Aside from the numerous benefits for the CCP's legitimacy, military developments and further space exploration, it stands to reason that the Shenzhou-mission will be exploited endlessly for propaganda purposes. Colonel Yang, for example, immediately was turned into an instant hero. According to media reports, 10.2 million sets of commemorative stamps have been issued. Unfortunately, no commemorative posters seem to have been published! In their absence, I reproduce some earlier artists' impressions of Chinese space travel below.

A garden in outer space, 1985

Heaven increases the years, man gets older, 1989

Aside from the political use of the space mission, its success really has struck a chord with the people. They feel proud and consider China's joining of the space family as another indication that the country is regaining some of the splendor and importance it had during its imperial past. As a result, a number of Chinese companies have included the Chinese conquest of space in their printed and television advertising. Jianlibao, a sports drink, already featured a Chinese taikonaut walking on the moon in one of its television commercials broadcast in early 2003.

Bringing his playmates to the stars, 1980

On 12 October 2005, China launched its second manned spacecraft, the Shenzhou VI, for a multi-manned, multi-day mission. Colonels Fei Junlong (mission commander) and Nie Haisheng (mission operator) embarked on a flight scheduled to take three to five days, during which they will undertake a number of scientific experiments. The launch is part of a more encompassing space program that includes space walks, the docking of a capsule with a space module and the launch of a permanent space lab. Moreover, in 2006, China started with the selection of women astronauts.

Warmly welcome the visit to Hong Kong of the nation's first taikonaut Yang Liwei and representatives from the manned space flight program, 2003

Sources:

Leonard David, Shenzhou Secrets: China Prepares for First Human Spaceflight
Matthew Forney, "Great Leap Skyward", Time Asia, vol. 162, n. 12 (29 September 2003

China Opens 'Space' Post Office on Docked Spacecraft

by Robert Z. Pearlman, collectSPACE.com Editor

Video still showing China's Shenzhou 8 spacecraft docked with the Tiangong 1 lab module on Nov. 3, 2011. CREDIT: China Central Television View full size image

China opened a new post office Thursday (Nov. 3) with a street address that is 213 miles (343 km) above the Earth.

Coinciding with the country achieving its first ever docking in space between the unmanned Shenzhou 8 spacecraft and Tiangong-1 space lab module, the "China Post Space Office" opened for business both on the ground in Beijing Aerospace City and, at least virtually, on board the newly established orbital complex.

Located on the ground near China's mission control, the Beijing Aerospace Command and Control Center (BACC), the new space post office even has its own zip code that extends into orbit: 901001.

Like any postal facility, the office will process letters and, in this case, e-mails, making it possible for the public to write Chinese astronauts, or "taikonauts," on the ground and in space. The space post office will offer domestic and international delivery as well as philatelic products, with more services expected to be introduced as China's aerospace industry eventually expands.

Yang Liwei, who in 2003 became China's first taikonaut in space, will serve as the post office's honorary chief.

A partnership between the China Post Group Corporation and the China Manned Space Engineering (CMSE) Office, the post office will also sell philatelic collectibles depicting China's major events in space. Among the first souvenirs offered are cancelled envelopes, or "covers," celebrating the Shenzhou 8 and Tiangong 1 docking complete with a commemorative postmark. [Photos From China's 1st Space Docking Mission]

China's postal service has issued other commemoratives for its country's previous space accomplishment but not through a dedicated "space" post office.

Shenzhou 8, which launched on Oct. 31 EDT, caught up with and docked at the Tiangong 1 space lab module on Nov. 2 EDT. The two unpiloted spacecraft will remain linked for 12 days before the Shenzhou detaches, backs away, and then approaches again. After the second demonstration of docking techniques, Shenzhou 8 will return to Earth.

In addition to demonstrating docking, Shenzhou 8 is also flying space life science experiments for both China and Germany.

The first docking established China as the third nation to achieve such a space feat with spacecraft designed to carry astronauts, after the United States and Russia. The orbital hookup marked a step forward toward China's plans to deploy a manned space station by 2020.

Russia has operated a makeshift post office on its space stations since the 1970s and continues to operate such a service on the International Space Station.

The Russian space office consists primarily of a postmark device that is only used in space. Cosmonauts use the ink stamp to mark letters and postcards as having flown in orbit, but also use it to mark other space souvenirs including crew notebooks, equipment and patches.

Follow collectSPACE on Facebook and Twitter @collectSPACE and editor Robert Pearlman @robertpearlman. Copyright 2011 collectSPACE.com. All rights reserved.

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