Trapped in US-China trade war when 2 elephantine economices fight ...

Tit for tat: The trade scuffle between US and China threatened to escalate to a full-scale war when Beijing fired back with punitive taxes on a wide range of US goods entering China - Reuters

The dispute between the two countries is real and has escalated. Malaysia is feeling the heat, but its palm oil sector is set to shine in this conflict.

THE US-China trade war drummed up by Washington last month threatened to escalate to a fullscale confrontation when Beijing fired back last week with punitive taxes on a wide range of US goods entering China.

And Malaysia, being an open economy with huge exports to China and the United States, is feeling the heat of the tit-for-tat measures rolled out by the two largest economies in the world.

President Donald Trump has given several reasons to act against China. A key reason is trade imbalance and US large trade deficit, which he attributed to China.

In 2017, China exported US$505bil (RM1.95 trillion) in goods to the United States, which in turn exported US$135bil (RM522.4bil) in goods to China.

The Trump administration has also alleged that China sought to misappropriate US intellectual property through joint venture requirements, unfair technology licensing rules, purchases of US technology firms with state funding and outright theft.

Last month, Trump slapped Beijing with punishing tariffs on the import of steel and aluminium products, and warned that there would be higher taxes on about 1,300 Chinese products worth US$50bil (RM193.5bil). China, which has often stated that it does not want a trade war as it would hurt all, retaliated last Monday by imposing additional duties of 15% to 25% on 128 US products worth up to US$3bil (RM11.6bil). Pork, recycled aluminium, steel pipes, wine and fruits are on the list.

After being criticised by its own elites that it was too soft in its retaliation, China’s State Council announced on Wednesday that it planned to impose additional tariffs of 25% on 106 US products into the country, including soybeans, aircraft and cars. The import value of the goods on the list in 2017 was US$50bil.

Beijing’s Wednesday response came soon after the US Trade Representative Office released details of 1,333 Chinese imports worth about US$50bil that it planned to hit with 25% tariffs, with emphasis on industrial and hi-tech goods.

Global Times, the official mouthpiece of the Communist Party of China (CPC), said in an editorial on Wednesday before its State Council’s statement: “China’s countermeasures should deal a heavy blow, hitting what the United States fears most. We strongly recommend starting with US soybeans and corn products. The ruling GOP will pay a huge price.”

It noted that nervous US soybean farmers, who were big supporters of Trump during the presidential campaign in 2016, had run advertisements to oppose launching a trade war against China.

China’s former finance minister Lou Jiwei reportedly said at a recent forum: “If I were in the government, I would hit soybeans first, and then cars and planes.”

By imposing punishing tariffs on US soybeans, Beijing will hurt US major farmers, given that China was the second largest importer of US agricultural products last year, buying US$19.6bil (RM73.5bil) of goods with 63% spent on soybeans.

As reducing US soybean imports would leave a shortfall for Chinese edible oil consumption and animal feed, this would need to be filled by imports from other countries. One source could be palm oil from Malaysia.

“Malaysia’s palm oil growers would stand to enjoy a windfall gain if China reduces the intake of soybeans from the United States, though our competitors like Indonesia also hope to sell more to China,” says economist Lee Heng Guie, executive director of SocioEconomic Research Centre (SERC).

In fact, the futures contracts of Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) rose on Wednesday after China’s announcement. The positive impact on CPO prices continued on Thursday.

However, the local stock market – like other markets in the region – plummeted, as many investors believed more tit-for-tat measures covering more industries would be unveiled in this spat. The FBM KLCI lost 1.88% to close at its nineweek low of 1,815.94 points.

The local stock market has been weakening due to fear of this trade war. The technology stocks are particularly jittery as the US tariffs are seen as targeting mainly the Chinese electrical and electronic (E&E) and machinery sectors.

“In our view, the sectors that could be affected by the US-China trade war due to recently proposed import tariffs are semiconductors, building materials and ports in Malaysia,” said CIMB Research in a report on Thursday.

As Malaysia exports many E&E products and parts to China, local players within this supply chain are likely to feel the heat.

“We estimate Malaysia’s ultimate exposure to the United States – including via intermediate goods to China for assembly into final products destined for the United States – at 10% of GDP, about half of which is in electronics products,” Nomura Research says, adding that another 8% is exposed to China’s final demand.

While exports to China account for 13.5% of total annual exports of Malaysia, exports to the United

States make up 9.5%. And E&E products form the biggest export item to both countries.

Nomura sees US trade protectionism and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China as posing risks to the Malaysian economy, as exports account for 71% of its GDP.

This trade conflict has been listed by Moody’s as a global risk this year.

Consultancy Oxford Economics says the escalation of the trade war could knock 0.5% off global growth in 2019.

Although earlier this year many analysts and business groups in the United States had warned that Washington would not win in this trade war, Trump charged ahead nevertheless.

The modern and economically mighty China, under President Xi Jinping, will punch back decisively and swiftly, many have warned.

The pain points of China are not easy to find. Over a decade ago, Beijing had realised it could not rely on the low value-adding export processing industries.

The country is now focusing on developing its high-technology sector and expanding the domestic consumer market to cut down on reliance on exports.

With so many odds against America, why would Trump insist on taking on China?

According to an analysis by Hong Kong-based International Chinese Newsweekly, the rise of American nationalism and Trump’s gearing up for the mid-term elections is the key reason for the president’s plunge into a trade war.

His focus is on midterm elections and keeping a Republican majority in Senate and Congress. But he will have to deal with the possible backlash from the first round of USChina trade war once it goes full on.

Apart from the soybean sector, the United States’ aircraft and automobile sectors will be hit.

According to South China Morning Post, Boeing Corporation delivered 202 planes to China in 2017, or 26% of its global total. The company has projected that in the next 20 years, China will need 7,240 new planes valued at about US$1.1 trillion (RM4.26 trillion).

On the auto sector, the United States sold more than US$10bil (RM38.7bil) worth of vehicles to China. Last year, General Motors sold 3.9 million cars to China, or almost 39% of its global total. The company expects sales in China to grow to five million by 2020.

The Hong Kong newspaper also warned that if China discourages its nationals from visiting the United States, the impact on US tourism will be painful.

In 2016, three million Chinese visitors and students spent US$33bil (RM127.7bil) while in the United States. The US Department of Commerce expects Chinese visitors rise to 5.7 million by 2021.

The other weapon China could weild against Washington is off-loading its US treasury bonds. This will have an impact on the dollar and US interest rate.

Bejing’s holding of US treasury bonds was close to US$1.2 trillion (RM4.6 trillion) at end-2017.

How long the current trade tension will last is anybody’s guess, given Trump’s unpredictable character. The world still remembers that he showered Xi with praises before turning his back on China.

But one thing is certain: if US protectionism and the trade war escalates, it will hurt not only the two major economies, but also countries which have trade links with the two powers.

“The global repercussions will be highly disruptive and damaging on trade and economy if the US-China trade war deepens and impacts more products and countries. In such widespread trade conflicts, Malaysia’s trade will be significantly dampened,” says Lee from SERC.

By Ho Wah Foon The Star

When 2 elephantine economies fight... 

Upping the stakes: Trump has ordered his administration to consider imposing tariffs on an additional US100bil of Chinese imports. Chinese President Xi Jinping had earlier hit back with US50bil worth of tariffs on US imports.

Will Malaysia be caught in the middle?

The trade war between the world’s two largest economies is not showing any sign of stopping just yet.

US president Donald Trump initiated the trade confrontation by announcing additional 25% tariffs on Chinese imports worth US$50bil, citing China’s unfair trade advantage. In retaliation, China initially announced higher tariffs on US$3bil imports from the US, but later raised it to US$50bil.

Now, Trump has ordered his administration to consider imposing tariffs on an additional US$100bil of Chinese imports.

While it remains to be seen whether these tit-for-tat announcements will materialise or eventually fizzle out, economists and fund managers generally agree that the US-China trade fight will affect Malaysia’s local industries and several stocks on Bursa Malaysia.

However, they differ on the extent of the impct from the escalating trade war.

In an email interview with StarBizWeek, Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute research and business development director Lau Zheng Zhou says that Malaysia will be hit with losses in trade opportunities, as both the US and China constitute 25% of Malaysia’s total trade.

He points out that investors may adopt a “wait-and-see” approach, which could cause certain sectors to slow down and hence disrupt manufacturers’ resource planning and projection.

“As opposed to exporting finished goods, Malaysian exports have footprints along an extensive supply chains across sectors in Asia such as automobiles, electronics, oil and gas, and machinery.

“With heavy tariffs being imposed by the US, Malaysian firms will be slapped with rising input costs and therefore falling demand for their value-added component products.

“Our logistics sector may also be affected if global trade slows down.

“But China’s tariffs imposed on the US may not directly impact Malaysia as it is strategically designed to cause damage to the US agricultural producers,” he says.

On the other hand, Malayan Banking Bhd group chief economist Suhaimi Ilias indicates that the potential impact from the US-China trade spat is small, or only 0.3% of total trade value, at this juncture

However, greater risks could arise if the additional tariffs spill into services trade and investment.

“In any case, US tariffs on solar panels, steel and aluminum will have some impact on Malaysia but we understand that the International Trade and Industry Ministry is seeking exemptions for these since Malaysia is in talk with the US on the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) as an alternative following the US pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

“Meanwhile, China’s tariffs on US products may result in some trade diversions or substitutions that may result in increase demand for Malaysian products from China, and one potential area is chemical or petrochemical products which is a major industry and export for Malaysia,” states Suhaimi.

Currently, the Trump administration has proposed a long list of 1,333 items, which would see the imposition of an additional 25% tariff.

These items include robotics, aircraft seats, machine parts, semiconductors, communication satellites and television components, among others.

It is worth noting that there will be 60 days of public review before the tariffs take effect. Observers believe both China and the US will re-negotiate their trade terms during this period in order to prevent a full-fledged trade war.

More items affected

In the event of the US government imposing tariffs on the additional US$100bil worth of Chinese imports as per Trump’s suggestion, more items will be affected.

China, on its part, has announced that it will slap a similar 25% additional tariff on 106 products from the US, which include soybean, automobiles, chemicals and aircraft.

According to Lau, China’s tariffs are well-targeted to hurt rural, agriculture-dependent communities who were big supporters of Trump during the 2016 presidential election.

Many companies in Malaysia have been involved in the export of raw materials and intermediate goods to China and the US, which are later re-packaged or used in the production of other finished goods.

These finished goods, in turn, are exported by both China and the US to one another as well as to other countries.

Indirectly, the Sino-US trade spat will affect these exporting companies from Malaysia.

Suhaimi calls for accommodative monetary policy and the implementations of major investment and infrastructure projects to buttress Malaysia’s economic activities, if the trade dispute continues to worsen.

Fund managers’ take

Fortress Capital chief executive officer Thomas Yong says that the Malaysian semiconductor sector will be most negatively affected due to the trade spat.

“This is because most semiconductor companies in Malaysia export intermediate semi-conductor components to end-product manufactures in the US, and a tariff on these end-products could indirectly lower the demand from these component players,” he says.

He cautions investors to monitor the ongoing trade war between the US and China closely.

“If the tariffs are implemented, the impact will be very detrimental to the ongoing global growth recovery.

“A trade war will negatively affect stock valuations all around the world,” he says.

Similar to Yong’s perspective, Areca Capital chief executive officer Danny Wong also reckons that export-based Malaysian businesses in the electrical and electronics domain could be affected, especially if their exposure to both China and the US is significantly large.

However, both fund managers believe that the Sino-US trade spat may not be entirely bad for companies in Malaysia.

Wong tells StarBizWeek that the US’ Federal Reserve (Fed) may take necessary actions to remedy any unwarranted implications to the economy.

“If the trade war continues to prolong and ultimately weigh down global growth and trade, it could affect the Fed’s future actions.

“Hence, there is a likelihood for the Fed to put the expected interest rate hikes on hold.

“In the event of such decision, dividend stocks in Bursa Malaysia will definitely benefit.

“On top of that, the real estate investment trust (REIT) stocks will also benefit from the situation, as Reits thrive in the low interest rate environment,” he says.

Meanwhile, Fortress Capital’s Yong adds that stocks related to palm oil production may also benefit from the trade spat.

“Since crude palm oil (CPO) is a substitute for soybean oil, the Chinese tariff on American soybeans can potentially allow China to substitute to CPO to meet their vegetable oil consumption needs, in turn supporting the demand and prices for CPO.

“As Malaysia and Indonesia both account for more than 80% of global palm oil supply, oil plantation companies from these two countries could potentially benefit from the much needed price boost amid the current soft CPO price.

“However, it remains uncertain if China will substitute all of the current soybean oil consumption to CPO, as there are quite a number of other vegetable oils available in the market,” he says.

Earlier, StarBiz reported that the American Malaysian Chamber of Commerce (Amcham) believes Malaysia may see an increased amount of foreign investments, particularly from the US, if the brewing trade war between the US and China escalates further.

Businesses from the US and other countries could make Malaysia an alternative regional production hub for several goods instead of China, to avoid the additional tariffs imposed by the US on products imported from China.

The additional 25% tariff levied on the imports from China would likely make Chinese goods pricier. Under such circumstances, global manufacturers may opt to establish their operations in Malaysia or outsource their production to a domestic company.

Commenting on whether the Sino-US trade war will place Malaysia as an alternative to China in the eyes of investors, Lau says it is not reasonable for investors to do so.

“However, the trade spat may rather increase foreign direct investments, especially from China, in industries with heavy use of steel and aluminium or value-added manufacturing of innovative consumer products.

“This can avoid a ban, restrictions or high tariffs on products which are associated with China,” he says.

By Ganeshwaran Kana The Star


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Sway of the Chinese language as China rising, but English is still king

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https://youtu.be/fbQxXibXOxE https://youtu.be/-HSrnqHkuwM

Sway of the Chinese language on display  

AT a recent forum in Hong Kong, Jim Rogers, a Wall Street tycoon, played a video of his daughter reciting a classical Chinese poem.

This is not the first time Happy Rogers has exhibited her proficiency in the language.

At an event in Singapore in 2013, the then nine-year-old showed off her nearly perfect Putonghua pronunciation and tone when she recited a not-so-well-known poem by Li Qiao, a Chinese poet during the Tang Dynasty. She won a big round of applause from the audience, most of them Chinese descendants. Happy’s sister Baby Bee, then five years old, did equally well, singing nursery rhymes in Chinese.

While it is not uncommon for young Chinese language learners to recite ancient poems, Happy spoke in classical Chinese with a fluency that could make even some native Chinese speakers envious, according to a report in Guangzhou Daily.

And recently, during US President Donald Trump’s visit to China, his granddaughter Arabella’s recital of Chinese poems went viral online, making her a “popular figure” among Chinese audiences.

There is a long list of foreign celebrities and their children learning Chinese, including Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’ four children and Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and his daughter. Even Prince William, media reports say, studied Chinese in school.

The increasing popularity of the Chinese language has led to the introduction of various programmes and classes worldwide. It is estimated that more than 100 million people outside China, including overseas Chinese, are studying the language, as many believe it can be used as a tool to gain access to conveniences in not only China but also some other countries.

The growing enthusiasm of people in other countries to learn Chinese can be attributed to their love for Chinese culture.

It perhaps explains why traditional Chinese cultural elements, from kung fu films to ancient works such as The Analects of Confucius and Sun Tzu’s The Art of War, have won so many global diehard fans. Many foreigners even believe that Chinese characters are an expression of aesthetic appreciation – maybe that’s why many famous personalities including former soccer star David Beckham have got Chinese characters tattooed on their body.

China’s economic and social development is another important factor for the growing interest in the language and culture. As the world’s most populous country and the second-largest economy, China for years has accounted for the largest number of students studying in other countries, which might also have made people overseas interested in the language.

As Jim Rogers said, whether you like or not, the 21st century will belong to China. He always tells people that if they have children, they shall encourage them to learn Chinese, “because Chinese will be the most important language”. For foreign companies intending to do business in China, they can have a huge advantage over their competitors if they can master the language.

And with the Belt and Road Initiative progressing smoothly, a number of Chinese enterprises will venture into countries along the ancient trade routes for business, which means a higher demand for Chinese speakers.

Source: China Daily/Asia News Network

China rising, but English is still king

 

Asia News Network and The Star recently published an article “Sway of the Chinese language”, detailing the rising popularity of learning Chinese as posted above.

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, US President Donald Trump’s granddaughter and billionaire investor Jim Rogers’ daughter are among some of the famous people or their family members brushing up on their Chinese language skills.

Tourists from China are splashing their cash all over the world (in some countries such as Thailand and Malaysia, the Chinese can also go cashless by making their purchases through Alipay).

Meanwhile, economists predict that the GDP of China, currently the world’s second largest, would surpass the United States’ within 10 years. As the economic value of the Chinese language grows, it will unseat English to become the world’s leading language. Or so we are told....

But if history is a clue, this may not happen so soon.

In the heyday of the Roman Empire, as the great Julius Caesar and his successors conquered the Mediterranean, Latin became the dominant language of the European continent. The Roman Empire began to disintegrate in the fifth century. Latin, however, remained relevant for many centuries to come. (The Eastern Roman Empire, also known as Byzantine Empire, survived into 15th century, but its capital was in Constantinople, and its official language was Greek.)

In year 1215, the unpopular King John of England, pressured by rebel barons, issued Magna Carta. The document established for the first time the principle that everybody, including the king, was subject to the law. It is considered one of the first steps taken in England towards establishing parliamentary democracy. The Magna Carta was initially written in Latin.

In year 1687, Sir Isaac Newton published three papers which were collectively known as Principia Mathematica. These works form the foundation of classical mechanics. Principia Mathematica, like the Magna Carta, was written in Latin. That was more than 12 centuries after the demise of the Roman Empire.

In ancient times, Malay language was the lingua franca of the Malay Archipelago. Then the Western powers came, created the modern states of Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei and Indonesia. Post-independence, Javanese, who make up 40% of Indonesia’s population, dominate the republic’s politics and economy. Somehow, Bahasa Indonesia is based on Malay rather than Javanese.

By 2050, China will become the world’s largest economy. The US will drop to second place. In the third spot, as economists believe, will be India. Like Malaysia, India was a British territory. And like our country, English, the language of the former colonial master, is still widely spoken.

By mid-century, the combined GDP of English-speaking and English-as-second-language nations, which include US, India, Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, the Philippines, Singapore and Malaysia, will likely be larger than that of China.

I do not doubt that Chinese language will get more important every year, and I encourage everyone to learn it if conditions allow. However, it would be foolish if we, in the advent of “China’s Century”, neglect English.

By CHEW KHENG SIONG Kuala Lumpur

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China needs strong core leadership: media survey

‘Transitional period demands strong administration’

Chinese people believe that a strong central leadership is indispensable for the rise of the country, and highly anticipate further confirmation of the role of the core leadership by President Xi Jinping during this period of historic significance, according to a poll recently released by a magazine affiliated with the People's Daily.

The survey, conducted by the People's Tribune, a magazine affiliated with the newspaper, through questionnaires, face-to-face and telephone interviews, as well as online polls between April 15 and September 8, interviewed 15,596 people living in cities and rural areas. The survey results were released earlier this month.

The main findings were that a strong central leadership as well as a pioneering figure is especially critical for a rising world power, and that as president and general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, Xi, with full leadership qualities, is supported whole-heartedly by a wide range of officials and people.

To the question of why a country in a transitional period needs a strong central leadership, most respondents strongly agreed that it is vital to safeguard a country's sovereignty and national security, putting the approval rate at 4.50, on a 5-point scale from disagree to complete approval, the survey found. This is followed by the number of respondents who think that core leadership is as important to "guide the nation toward a lofty goal" or that it was "particularly important for a populous and multi-ethnic country."

This year, the necessity for strong leadership has been a theme expounded by many media organizations.

The Guangming Daily on October 9 published a commentary by Fan Dezhi, a senior official at the Party History Research Center of the CPC Central Committee, which asserted that "A strong core leadership is needed more than ever before to achieve the great dream of the renewal of the Chinese nation."

To promote the core leadership of the Party, the priority is to "conform with the CPC Central Committee, with General Secretary Xi Jinping as well as with the Party's theories, guidelines, principles and policies," read a commentary in the Qiushi Journal in March, the flagship magazine of the CPC Central Committee.

Social and political stability, which can be realized by a potent government backed by public support, is the prerequisite for a smooth transition and reform of any country, said Zhi Zhenfeng, a legal expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

"Both the rise of great Western powers and the rapid development of developing countries needed a strong core leadership and powerful government," Zhuang Deshui, deputy director of the Research Center for Government Integrity-Building at Peking University, told the Global Times.

Zhuang cited the examples of Otto von Bismarck who unified Germany in the 19th century and the strong Japanese government that carried out Meiji Restoration to bring about its modernization and Westernization.

China should unwaveringly uphold the CPC's leadership if it hopes to realize a stable and sustainable development, Zhang Dejiang, chairman of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, said in March, adding that everyone should conform to the ideology and actions of the CPC Central Committee with Xi as general secretary.

"Since China faces complicated situations in different areas, coupled with a huge population, only a strong core leadership is able to coordinate the interests of different groups while taking full account of the majority of its nationals," Zhuang noted.

Zhi said a lack of consciousness of "the core" has made a few local officials and Party members fail to follow or strictly implement the policies issued by the CPC Central Committee.

Charismatic leadership

The People's Tribune poll found that the Chinese people are drawn to the charisma of Xi. The survey found that most respondents believe that Xi has leadership qualities, namely "strategic willpower with full confidence," "bravery to tackle problems head-on" and "intelligence to cure both the symptoms and root causes of problems." The list is rounded out by "top-level design with wisdom and philosophy" and "personal charisma to set an example for others."

When asked which trait is essential for a core leadership to give full play in reality, 79.13 percent of those surveyed said a "leader of integrity and ability."

In addition, the poll results showed that people from all walks of life highly anticipate the further confirmation of Xi's role as the core of the leadership.

Without releasing the specific data, the survey found that most respondents believe that officials that lacked "the consciousness of the core" would go astray and lose their sense of responsibility or discipline.

"Only by establishing authority in the CPC Central Committee can the Party and the nation be forceful. In this sense, firmly espousing Xi as the core is a matter of direction, principle and realistic needs," the magazine quoted anonymous officials who participated in the poll.

Therefore, we should further strengthen the consciousness of the core in the Party and across the country, improve intra-Party political life and the leadership system of the Party and the State, and further confirm Xi's core role in the critical rise of China, said the survey report. - Global Times.

 

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The Chinese want advancement just as much as others do. It’s just that they would rather do it quietly.

Patriotic spirit: A paramilitary soldier guarding a giant flower bouquet at Tiananmen Square in Beijing to commemorate Chinese National Day. — AFP

TO understand why and how China has emerged as a great power, we have to look beyond what experts usually point to. The Chinese have opened up the economy, they have invested heavily in R&D, goods made in China flood stores in the United States, Europe and elsewhere, they are a patriotic bunch. They are industrious.

These are good reasons. But what are the real ones? Why can't other nations do the same? The United States used to be a major manufacturing country. Now it’s a consumption economy with an astounding number of obese people. Why?

What drives the way the Chinese do things and conduct themselves at the personal as well as national level? I have seen Chinese graduate students in the United States who kept quiet in the classroom when the professor asked a question but at the end of the semester, managed to score all As. They have no intention of showing off. They are advancing slowly but surely without making a lot of noise.

Despite all its strength and ambition, China is not bent on global domination. Although its influence is undeniably rising, its engagement is transactional, not imperial. Its interest beyond Asia is mainly in countries that can provide it with raw materials and markets.

Talk of China’s big footprints in Africa, for example, is overstated. Its stock of direct investment in the continent still lags far behind that of Great Britain and France, and amounts to only a third of the United States’. In Africa and Latin America, it is concentrating more on taking stakes in local companies, not just buying up land and resources.

China likes to mind its own business. It wants to have as little involvement abroad as it can get away with. Instead of acting for the greater good of humanity, it responds pragmatically when its own interests are at stake. Its navy has begun to participate in anti-piracy operations off the Horn of Africa and in United Nations peacekeeping in Africa. In 2011, it sent a ship to co-ordinate the evacuation of 36,000 Chinese workers from Libya.

The world may anticipate more such actions as its companies get more deeply involved around the globe. It is also making inroads into the use of soft power through Confucius Institutes all over the world that try to demonstrate that China and its culture are benign.

What China is against is easier to comprehend than what it is for. It opposed Bush’s incursion into Iraq in 2003, vetoed the interventions Western powers sought in Syria and Darfur and took no position on the Russian annexation of Crimea. Chinese leaders are not great fans of the existing system of alliances but offer no alternative system of collective security. They talk about sharing resources in the South and East China Seas, but have offered no definite proposals to this end.

Disappointed by what it sees as its lack of influence in international organisations, China led the establishment of the Shanghaibased New Development Bank in 2014, of which all the Brics countries are members and which looks like a tenderfoot to the World Bank. It has also set up an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to rival the ADB.

A late appearance is not unusual for a great power. It took a world war to draw the United States irreversibly onto the world stage. Over 200 years, through much pain and suffering, China has transformed the very centre of its identity, changing itself from an inwardand backward-looking society to an outward- and forward-looking power. Since 1978, it has shown both flexibility and firm resolve in its continued pursuit of wealth and power.

Many countries around the world respect, and would like to imitate, the undemocratic but efficient way that China has managed its decades of growth. But how exactly to go about it? What do they know that the rest of the world doesn’t? Well, for one thing, they don’t believe that they are superior to others or destined by the Divine to be great. They know they have to work for it.

They are honest with themselves. More importantly, they know how. While the Western culture teaches people to be “themselves”, there could be no advice more hollow than this.

Confucius, Mencius, Zhuangzi and other Chinese thinkers, more than 2,000 years ago taught that we shouldn’t be looking for our essential self, let alone seeking to embrace it, because there is no true, absolute self to begin with.

As they understood, human beings are messy, multi-dimensional beings, a tangle of conflicting emotions and capabilities in a messy, ever-changing world. We are who we are by reacting to one another. It’s no wonder that the Chinese leadership is turning to ancient philosophy for support. That’s something to learn from China.

 From Asia News Network THE DAILY STAR

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The culture of guns As the US has lost more international status and influence since the global financial crisis in 2008, the inter...

US will benefit by accepting China's rise

Trade volume between China and the US hit $441.6 billion in the first three quarters of the year, surpassing the $438.1 billion in trade between Canada and the US. [Photo/IC]

In the past year, the growing pressure on US President Barack Obama's foreign policy due to the unfolding US presidential race cast a shadow on US-China ties despite some achievements.

The international situation and diplomatic practices in the passing year, to a large extent, confirm this contention. Some impartial American scholars agree to it because of the global issues the US faces, and wonder why the US has gone all out looking for "adversaries" in every corner of the world. Also, a number of such scholars believe that whether China and the US can avoid a confrontation largely depends on whether the US can rethink its "dominant power" status.

The world is undergoing profound changes, and that includes China's rise. The changes, however, have made some people in the US nervous, according to some American scholars. The US has got accustomed to being the world's most powerful country. But the fact is, the US' power has been declining. And these people attribute the development to the weakening US leadership and argue that a strong leadership will help restore Washington's unchallenged position in the world.

Needless to say the presumption is unrealistic. A sagacious analysis of the situation, however, can help the US rethink its real position in the world. Regrettably, US decision-makers have failed to read the vicissitudes of the times and still want to maintain world peace under Washington's leadership and change other countries by forcing them to adopt the US model of "democracy".

The world today is different from what the US imagines it to be. Countries, including the powerful ones, will prosper if they follow the general world trend and falter if they go against the tide. The trend suggests the developing world as a whole will continue to rise because emerging countries now contribute more than 50 percent to world economic growth. Even some Westerners admit that no major world issue can be resolved without the participation of big countries such as China, India and Brazil.

Despite all this, there is hardly a country that doesn't want to maintain and develop good ties with the US. The BRICS countries expect smooth cooperation with the US. Russia may be determined to rid Syria of terrorists, but it has still made it clear that it wants cooperation with the US. China's willingness to cooperate with the US is also beyond doubt. But the problem is, the US has not made appropriate changes in its stance and often takes actions without paying attention to other countries' interests.

Because of China's consistent efforts, Beijing and Washington have made notable achievements in economic, military and cultural fields, and these hard-won achievements should be cherished by both sides. But by being unnecessarily worried that China will challenge its hegemonic status, the US has been making moves to contain China on various fronts. Apt examples are the US' tough and even provocative stance and actions on the South China Sea issue.

The ever-increasing interdependence of China and the US should have led to better bilateral ties. And with many US allies, including Britain, Canada and Australia, showing greater interest in cooperating with China, one wonders why the US cannot do the same when it comes to its relationship with China.

By Wang Yusheng (China Daily)

The author is executive director of the Strategy Study Center, China Foundation for International Studies.

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To fellow US interest rate hike or to cut rates?

Emerging economies in a dilemma on whether to follow suit or cut rates

“Specifically, we expect rate cuts in India, Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand in 2016. We also project a further 75bps of rate cuts and a 200bps reduction in RRR in China'. - Credit Suisse

THE big question is what happens next?

The much anticipated hike in US interest rates on Thursday meant that for the first time in almost a decade, US interest rates are on the way up. The 25 basis point (bps) rise in US interest rates by The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to between 0.25% and 0.5% was made as the US economy showed tangible signs of improvement.

Such gains in the US economy through lower unemployment and higher forecast inflation has meant that the target for interest rates by the end of 2016 has been pegged at 1.5%, meaning that rates are expected to rise by 25 basis points every quarter until the end of next year.

The implications of what the US FOMC does reverberates throughout the world. Conventional thinking of the past is that higher rates in the US does put pressure on central banks elsewhere to follow suit.

But times have changed. Countries today have their own domestic economies and issues to manage and that has taken precedence over what the US does with its monetary policy.

It is clear that the de-coupling has taken place a long time ago. The European Union and Japan are still engaged in quantitative easing and are keeping rates near zero or in the case of the EU, in negative territory.

For Malaysia, the thinking is that with the difference between domestic and US interest rates still having a nice cushion, the focus of Bank Negara will be on the Malaysian economy.

Rate pressure: Should the path of the US rate cycle starts to steepen, economists say it will put pressure on Bank Negara as the ringgit may be pressured by inaction. – Reuters Countries such as China cut its interest rates in October to 4.35% as it grapples with a slowing economy. Different priorities call for different action.

But analysts feel the move by the US does create a bit of a dilemma for policy makers. Raising rates does cool an economy, which is already shifting to a lower gear given the tangible cooling of major economic indicators.

Trimming interest rates further, while will help the economy, will put more pressure on the flow of capital. Analysts feel that might not be what the central bank will want to do at the moment considering the weakness of the ringgit not only against the US dollar this year but also against the currencies of its major trading partners.

“Our rate is accommodative for economic growth and Bank Negara can raise rates when the economy is slowing down,” says an economist with a local brokerage.

To each its own

The United States has been the traditional locomotive of growth for the world for much of recent history. But the emergence of China has changed that equation. Trade of the emerging world increases with China as the second largest economy of the world grows, its influence on Malaysia and the rest of Asia has become more affixed.

It is for that reason that some are speculating that emerging economies, such as Malaysia, will keep its eyes focused on what the People’s Bank of China does while having the US action in its periphery vision.

“We argue that Asian central banks’ monetary policy stance next year will be more influenced by economic and monetary policy cycles in China than in the past, and will diverge from the US. Unlike the previous US Fed hiking cycle when virtually all Asian central banks tightened their policies, we think this time Asian policy rates will stay lower for longer,” says Credit Suisse in a report.

“Specifically, we expect rate cuts in India, Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand in 2016. We also project a further 75bps of rate cuts and a 200bps reduction in RRR in China.

“Given the challenging environment for exports, we expect growth in trade-dependent economies including Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand to surprise the consensus on the downside. Meanwhile, more domestic-oriented economies with policy catalysts, including Indonesia and the Philippines, could outperform expectations considerably,” it says.

For Malaysia, the FOMC decision was keenly watched. Any time US interest rates move, Bank Negara pays close attention to it.

Is it the key determinant for the direction of domestic interest rates?

No, say economists. “Local conditions override what the US does,” says an economist.

For Malaysia, economists believe that the current overnight policy rate of 3.25% is appropriate to support growth. But they do too acknowledge that Malaysia is in a dicey situation depending on what happens next.

The general view is that the US will continue to push rates upwards. Just how rapidly will be important and as US rates goes up, the differential with Malaysia will narrow.

“If the local economy does as it is predicted, then there is a possibility of a small hike next year but there is no urgency to do that,” says an economist.

The question is what happens after next year should the path of the US rate cycle starts to steepen?

Economists say that will put pressure on Bank Negara as the ringgit might be pressured by inaction. As it is, the drop in crude oil prices is the most pressing issue affecting the value of the ringgit.

The effect on emerging currencies

Emerging markets have had a series of bad press over the past year. With sentiment souring and the outlook in the US getting brighter, it was no coincidence that the US dollar surged, gaining about 40% on average against emerging market currencies since May 2013.

But is it time for things to change?

Schroders thinks that might happen.

“It is difficult to argue that the Fed has been the sole factor in emerging market debt weakness. China hard landing fears, plummeting commodity prices, Brazilian political disarray, Russian policy concerns and general weakening of growth across all regions created a near perfect-storm for emerging market debt investors.

“However, a more predictable and less fraught path going forward for the Fed should help steady investor nerves and risk appetite. If developed market bond yields remain very low – as seems likely with a very slow hiking path, set out with some confidence – emerging market dollar yields may remain one of the few places to look for meaningful income generation for years to come,” it says.

Schroders says the move by the US Federal Reserve comes at a time when emerging market dollar debt seems particularly attractive.

“Yields in the primary sovereign dollar index are at highs not seen since 2010, when Treasury yields were much higher than today. Yield spreads over Treasuries for investment grade sovereign debt are just under 300 basis points, and remain at elevated levels that were last seen consistently during the European crisis of 2011. High yield sovereign debt currently has a yield to maturity of 8.5%.

“The divergence between developed market monetary policies has driven the dollar nearly 20% higher on a trade-weighted basis since July 2014. Emerging market currencies have fallen in lock step.

“With the European Central Bank now charting a path towards a steady dose of quantitative easing as growth in Europe stabilises, Fed predictability should help curb that dollar appreciation. Emerging market currencies should then likely steady at attractive levels, boosting sentiment towards the asset class. Even a modest virtuous cycle led by these factors could make emerging markets one of the strongest global fixed income performers next year, given today’s generous yield levels.”

By Jagdev Singh Sidhu The Star/Asia News Network

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The global impact of the US interest rate rise

Fear factor: Traders working in the S&P options pit at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange in Chicago, illinois. The prospect of th...

The global impact of the US interest rate rise

Fear factor: Traders working in the S&P options pit at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange in Chicago, illinois. The prospect of the first hike in US rates in almost a decade had kept emerging markets on edge in the weeks leading up to the Fed’s decision.

A quarter of one per cent hike as expected.

It doesn't sound like much - but its significance is mighty.

After nearly a decade of what has been, essentially, a global economic effort - and experiment - to save the world from financial calamity, the Federal Reserve, the central bank to the world's largest economy, has decided, finally, to try a touch of "normalisation".

Getting economies "back to normal" was always the hope during that remarkable time when the financial system was in danger of going bust.

Central banks around the world slashed interest rates to near zero and created billions of pounds of support for governments and the wider economy.

I'm not sure anyone thought that, eight years on, we would still be in a near zero interest rate world. Or, in cases such as the eurozone, a negative interest rate world.

Fundamental damage

The financial crisis - a banking crisis which so damaged confidence and put the world in "risk-off" mode - more fundamentally damaged the global economy than many initially predicted.

Paying off debts - deleveraging - and not taking on more risk became the order of the day for governments that had over-borrowed and banks, businesses and consumers that had become drunk on easy credit.

Now the Federal Reserve has moved interest rates up a small notch.

The hike is a "doveish" one, with the Fed statement making it clear that any future increases will be "gradual".

Primarily, the rate rise is a signal about the strength of the US economy and shows that the chairwoman of the Fed, Janet Yellen, believes that the long march back to more normal economic conditions can begin.

Employment levels in America are high and growth is running at just over 2%.

Ms Yellen, a cautious governor, does not want to overdo it. She says the pace of growth in the US economy is "modest". And inflation is below target.

Global implications

When America stirs, the rest of the world takes notice.

Rising US interest rates could mean higher debt repayments for emerging market governments and businesses - as the amount owed is denominated in dollars.

And with higher interest rates in America, investment capital will be encouraged across the Atlantic and away from Asia in the hunt for better returns.

That could affect Europe as well.

On the upside, the stronger dollar which has followed the rise might be good for European and Asian economies as it means exports to America are cheaper.

UK interest

Could it increase pressure on Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, and his colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee, to raise interest rates in Britain in 2016?

Many say yes.

The UK economy is strengthening, as is America.

The Bank insists the positive signs are not yet strong enough, but with employment rising and wage increases above the rate of inflation, a 2016 interest rate rise is certainly considered possible by many economists, including Sir Charlie Bean, the former deputy governor of the Bank of England.

Mr Carney has made it clear, in a way similar to the Federal Reserve, that when a rate rise comes it will be small and any subsequent increases will be gradual.

Homeowners with mortgages will need to factor in higher payments.

Savers who have seen years of very low interest rates are likely to heave a sigh of relief as, finally, the world starts approaching economic normality.

By Kamal Ahmed Business editor BBC

Markets rise on rate hike - However, concerns linger on adverse impact of further increases

PETALING JAYA: Key regional markets, including Bursa Malaysia, reacted positively to the United States Federal Reserve’s (Fed) first interest rate hike in nine years, although concerns linger on the impact to be felt on the future rate hikes anticipated to take place next year.

In a knee-jerk reaction to the rate rise, which sent out a signal that the US economy was now on a stronger footing, the local key benchmark index, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index, closed 1.37% or 22 points up to 1,656 points, with market breadth across the bourse generally positive.

World Bank country manager for Malaysia Faris Hadad-Zervos said the issue of the Fed hike had been the longest-talked-about and most-anticipated one to date.

“It is still too early to tell the impact of the move, but our analysis so far indicates that the Malaysian Government policy and market have long internalised the move into their estimates and sentiment about the economy.”

Yesterday, the Fed raised its key interest rate from a range of 0% to 0.25% to a range of 0.25% to 0.5%, signalling that the economic health of the world’s largest economy had improved since the days of the 2007/2008 financial and subprime crises.

“I feel confident about the fundamentals driving the US economy, the health of US households and domestic spending,” CNN Money quoted Fed chief Janet Yellen as saying. Yellen was reported to have said that further increases would be gradual, with rates likely to remain low “for some time”. Economists in the US have predicted that the Fed could raise the rates by between 50 basis points (bps) to 100 bps next year.

While yesterday’s rate hike caused emerging markets to react positively, as most of them had already priced in a rate hike in the US, concerns of further increases on interest rates on capital flows remained.

The biggest fear is that investors would take even more of their capital out of emerging markets, which have enjoyed rapid growth in recent years, and move it to the US, which presumably will yield higher returns now that its economy is firmly on the path to recovery.

Already, investors have pulled out about US$500bil from markets in emerging countries in 2015, the first annual outflow since 1988, Forbes reported, citing the Institute of International Finance estimates.

Notably, a strengthening US dollar will negatively affect regional companies which have dollar-denominated bonds.

In its Asean strategy report entitled “May the Fed be with you”, Nomura Research noted that lower commodity prices, fiscal consolidation and rising costs were weighing down on domestic demand in Malaysia even as the export sector continued to perform well and support overall growth.

“Stocks to focus on will likely be ones that are cheap, large-cap, higher-yielding and ones more recently under pressure. But it is still unlikely that Malaysia will outperform, given the weaker earnings outlook,” Nomura told clients.

It added that banks offered “earnings visibility at cheap valuations”, while healthcare stocks and exporters benefited from the depreciation of the ringgit.

Year-to-date, the ringgit has lost as much as 23% against the US dollar, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in the region although it strengthened against the greenback and other key regional currencies at yesterday’s close.

Interestingly, Nomura said the Philippines offered the best growth prospects and it was “overweight” on it.

“Despite the recent correction and negative momentum in earnings revisions, the macro fundamentals remain very favourable for double-digit earnings growth next year,” it said.

Elsewhere in the commodity markets, crude oil continued to be under pressure owing to more supply than demand, with the benchmark West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil prices trading at US$35.52 and US$37.19 per barrel, respectively, almost 50% down from June last year.

By Yvonne Tan The Star/Asia News Network

A sigh of relief from Asian central bankers - Regional currencies and stocks reat favourably to US rate hike

SYDNEY: Asian governments and central bankers has breathed a collective sigh of relief after currencies edged up and stocks rallied rather than recoiled at the US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates.

The prospect of the first hike in US rates in almost a decade had kept emerging markets on edge in the weeks leading up to the Fed’s decision, amid fears investors would redirect capital to higher-yielding US debt in a fresh blow to their shaky economies.

However, an initial rally smoothed the brows of Asian central bankers who were the first to respond to the hike as US policymakers sought to end an era of ultra-low rates that followed the global financial crisis.

“It is a relief that even despite the Fed rate hike, turbulence in global financial markets has not been large,” said South Korea’s Vice-Finance Minister Joo Hyung-hwan.

The more composed initial reaction was aided by the fact the Fed had clearly flagged the move in advance, and also said the pace of tightening would be gradual – an important signal for many asset markets adjusting to less stimulus after years of flush Fed liquidity.

However, Citibank’s Asian economic team said while equities and credit market had perked up, the response of commodity market suggested caution.

“We have long argued that early signs of growth in emerging markets would be seen in commodity markets, so we take heed that neither energy nor metal prices shared the optimism of the equities and credit markets,” the analysts said in a report.

Hong Kong’s top central banker, who was obliged to immediately match the Fed’s hike under the Chinese-run city’s peg to the US dollar, said he expected only a modest outflow of capital as a result of the central bank’s move.

China’s central bank also added to the reassuring mood, pencilling in economic growth of 6.8% for next year in a working paper released on Wednesday, down only slightly from an expected 6.9% this year.

A senior researcher at an official Chinese think tank chimed in, saying the hike would not lead to major economic disruption.

Zeng Gang, director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences banking research division, told the official People’s Daily paper that as the rate rise had been widely expected, it had been priced into markets and the announcement impact was limited.

Data showing drops in exports from Japan and Singapore, including big falls in shipments to China, sounded some of the few sour notes yesterday, but Tokyo too voiced relief that emerging markets were taking the US rate hike in their stride. — Reuters